WTO and the Junctad worsened the forecasts of world trade in goods
Global trade in goods against the background of the “Duties War” this year, relatively 2024, can be reduced by 0.2%, follows from the updated forecast of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Such a scenario is implemented if the United States does not resume the action of “mirror” duties suspended for 90 days. Further tightening of import rules can result in an even more noticeable decrease in the volume of trade – up to 1.5%. The restructuring of trade flows will be reflected in almost all regions of the world-at least due to changes in the directions of supplies from the PRC. For China itself, such a redistribution is critically important – the stable growth rate of the country’s economy in the first quarter was largely supported by an increase in exports.
International organizations began to submit detailed assessments of the possible consequences of the US trade policy – so far they have been limited only to brief statements. So, expectations from the dynamics of world trade in goods are noticeably revised. In 2025, its volumes may decrease by 0.2%, the WTO in the released report « Prospects and statistics of world trade. » Such a dynamics will be if US President Donald Trump does not resume the “mirror” duties suspended by him for 90 days. The previous, October assessment of the WTO, suggested the growth of trade in 2025 by 3%.
The organization notes that the resumption of duties and the strengthening of trade contradictions will lead to a more significant reduction in the volume of trade – by 1.5%.
Let us explain that in this indicator potential effects are laid not only on the action of the duties themselves, but also from the general uncertainty, which gives rise to the alarm of companies and consumers in the United States and beyond.
WTO analysts believe that redirecting trade flows will affect most of the regions of the world – deliveries from the PRC will grow by 4–9% to almost all of them. Import from China will increase by 5% for Africa countries, by 6% for Europe and Asia, by 9% for South America. For the United States, imports from China will be reduced by 77%. It should be noted that in some countries the possible expansion of China’s presence in the local market is already concerned – to defend themselves from the influx of Chinese goods, in particular, the EU countries (See “Kommersant” from April 5).
For China, the operational redistribution of supplies is a priority task: stable economic growth rates are provided in many ways to its export export.
According to the country’s main statistical department yesterday, in the first quarter of 2025, the PRC economy increased by 5.4% in annual terms. In the fourth quarter of last year, a similar, maximum indicator in a year and a half was recorded. Analysts interviewed by Trading Economics were waiting for some growth in January -March – up to 5.1%.
The actual value is explained by the export exports, which was recorded on the eve of the expansion of new tariff restrictions from Donald Trump. According to the results of the first quarter, delivery from the PRC increased by 5.8% year by the year, to $ 853.6 billion (See “Kommersant” from April 16). Against the background of an increase in external orders, the growth of industrial production accelerated: to 7.7% to the end of the first quarter from 5.9% in February (see schedule).
It should be noted, however, that partly in the growth rate of GDP of the PRC, the effects of the economy’s support expanded by the authorities are also reflected: retail sales in the country in March grew by 5.9% after an increase by 4% in February, analysts predicted a 4.2% indicator. At the same time, the decline in the real estate sector continues: in January -March, investments in this sphere decreased by 9.9% in annual terms. Such statistics, combined with problems in foreign trade, leaves the authorities, thus, a space to expand the support of the economy. The experience accumulated by the country during the first presidential term of Mr. Trump (See “Kommersant” from April 7).
However, while analysts doubt that China will be able to ensure the expansion of GDP by targeted 5%. In updated forecast The UN Conferences in Trade and Development (Junctad) assumed that China’s economy at the end of the year will grow by only 4.4% (4.7% were expected in October) after 5% in 2024. W worshiped in the report of the organization and assessment of US GDP growth: it will be 1% (1.8%) after 2.8% last year. In general, due to the global trade war, the world economy will grow by 2.3% in 2025 (in 2024-2.8%), they believe in the Junktad, clarifying, as in the WTO, that these grades can be repeatedly revised.
