With or without Ukraine, Eastern Europe will become a « fortification »

The war in Ukraine will not end diplomatically, but on the front. The Ukrainians will be in a much more difficult situation in the future than they are at this moment, but it is not impossible for European leaders and part of the Trump administration to be convinced that Ukraine can be imposed on the front, says Professor John J. Mearsheimer.

Mearsheimer’s analysis comes immediately after the London meeting on the Ukraine war, scheduled on April 23, did not take place at the level of foreign ministers. It all started from the refusal of the President of Ukraine to accept the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, in order not to talk about the other four Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia (although unoccupied). This meant an implicit rejection of the peace plan proposed by President Trump. Once the plan rejected, the Secretary of State Marco Rubio decided not to move to London.

By the end of this week, President Donald Trump will present a new version for a peace plan, but the result is unlikely to differ.

President Trump is willing to accept, or to accept under certain conditions, the main three conditions placed by Russia for a peace in Ukraine (recognizing territorial annexes, demilitarizing Ukraine and not denoting Ukraine in NATO – n.red.). But the Zelenski regime showed that it will not accept these conditions. In addition, the US administration is divided. President Trump and special envoy Steve Witkoff are inclined to accept the conditions of Moscow, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, does not accept these conditions, says Mearsheimer.

For a part of the Trump administration, the demilitarization of Ukraine is inconceivable, because it would ruin the US Pivot Plan to Asia, in the perspective of a potential military confrontation with China. Given the opposition of Kiev and European Allies, as well as the apparent blocking within the Trump administration, the most likely evolution of the conflict will be the one presented by Secretary Rubio Shortly before Easter: « Our country has committed to conclude the war, but if we do not find a clear way to peace, the United States will retire from the actions for the conclusion of peace. » This position has been expressed by Marco Rubio several times, since taking over the mandate. « We have now reached a point where we have other things to focus on. We are willing to get involved, but not unlimited and if no progress is made.

In other words, Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that the United States will turn their attention and military effort to China, while the Ukraine war will continue with the support of allies in Europe. US military aid (weapons and information) will continue until the support set out during the former Washington administration. Subsequently, the war will enter into the task of allies in Europe.

Gradually, the conflict in Ukraine returns to its original matrix, this time under the leadership of the Trump administration. In 2022 shortly after the outbreak of war, Wess Mitche, former assistant of Secretary of State for European Affairs in the first Trump administration, wrote the following: « It is good for the US and the Allies to put as much pressure as soon as the conflict begins – the exact opposite of the Biden Administration step by step. We have adopted light sanctions against Russia because the Russian army had a very weak performance in the first days of the Ukraine war. But China could deduce from here that in a similar period of time it could strengthen its control over Taiwan, while the US and allies would evaluate the ability of Taiwanese to resist. If the US will now sanction the Russian energy sector, they should do it in tandem with Europeans, to prove to China that the US and the Allies are ready to accept the economic recession to stop a large scale invasion”.

Then, In October 2024, Mitchell wrote: « We want Eastern Europe to be a strong fortification to keep Europe stable in the coming years, as the US will focus on Asia. Logically, Ukraine will be the central component of this fortification, because it will have the largest and most powerful European army, at least in the medium term. Diplomacy should be used to create conditions for a Ukraine that is as territorial and economic as possible”.

Wess Mitchel does not hold any official function in the current Trump administration. It is not part of the hard camp of neoconservatives nulating-clinton-Kagan, but it is not the diplomat with whom Vladimir Putin wants to negotiate. Wess Mitche is very close to Elbridge Colby, who now leads the Pentagon’s political affairs, along with which he has created a Think Tank (with a generous financing from the Pentagon’s part). The Admiral Dennis Blair (head of the information community in the Obama administration), Thomas de Maiziere, former German defense minister, were gathered around them.

On the eve of President Trump’s re -election, Wess Mitchell wrote: « In the case of Ukraine, we should not accept the conclusion of the conflict, if this will occur at a time when the realities on the front would lead to a split Ukrainian state, which would have a reduced utility for the East-European fortification we need to pivot to Asia. Our strategy can only be successful if Europeans are starting to take responsibility for their own defense. The whole logic rests on the ability to support a secondary conflict theater while we turn our attention to the main theater without risking the secondary one. We must clearly show that we are not « abandoning » Europe. Even after we prioritized Asia, the US will remain a European power and will have the strategic motivation to maintain the latest military capabilities, to help Europeans and to maintain their support in Europe. Washington has to reach a great deal with Europe, in order for Europe to change the current factual condition. The US must support creative arrangements, including Franco-Germano-Polish fighting formations. To pivot to Asia, America needs a support point in Europe and it can only be offered by Europeans”.

So far, President Trump has tried to end the war, as Ukraine loses four regions plus Crimea, but remains with exit to the Black Sea, which can ensure its economic viability. On the other hand, President Putin has no interest in confident of Ukraine, wanting a state as split as possible, in order not to be useful as part of the East-European « fortification » desired by the United States. The refusal of the Zelenski regime to accept peace with the current territory losses and, most likely, the US reluctance to guarantee the demilitarization of Ukraine, will make the war continue. However, regardless of the situation in Ukraine, if it is for the US to follow even partially the strategy set by Wess Mitchell, Eastern Europe will militarize massively and will face great economic difficulties, to help the US in the conflict that is preparing with China.