With a look at the critical 25%

Until recently, there was only the psychological threshold for the rulers: 28% of the Europalpe of 2024, as a percentage of urgency, as ND MPs admit, « to locally lock it in our gradual return to a 30% orbit. »

Suddenly there is another, not psychological but essential: 25%, as the threshold that unlocks the gradual bonus for the first party.

It is the one that can bring about the overthrow of the political scene and the correlations to the next House, as it is the « technical » limit that, if not achieved, abolishes the enhanced analog.

With the ruling party in the worst phase since 2019, in a period of redevelopment of its strategy towards its political opponents and on the backdrop of the heavy demographic messages of the period, « TA NEWS » pointed out last week (« Great Turnover », March 21).

Because Maximus’s staff may find in their latest analyzes, even in point of positive positive corrections, but in a quarter, ND has been driven not only lower than its European election zone but also a breath away from the substantive threshold of voting.

The electoral law is clear: only if the first party achieves equal to or greater than 25% receives the gift of 20 seats and then receives an additional one for each additional 0.5% in the result (so in each extra unit, two MPs).

It all stop at 40%, a percentage of the 50 -seat maximum.

In short, if the former catches 25% leaves 280 seats to distribute, if it catches 40%, it leaves 250 seats and if it catches 24.99% and sees all seats, and 300, are distributed proportionally.

In addition, the achievement of self -reliance – a trajectory from which the ND is now far from – passes through the sum of the parties that do not catch 3% for entry into the House.

When blue executives insist today that no one knows the election landscape of 2027 and how many parties will enter the House, they do so they avoid discussions on the post -election day, but in their minds (as expecting) as if they are as follows: (higher) The self -reliance bar with nine -party parliament, such as today’s (lower) with six -piece, such as 2019.

ND’s polls in general and the crucial 25% specifically set the parliamentary group and party executives.

Mitsotakis has opened his office for discussion with MPs before and from the government reshuffle, the fermentation dinners have returned and parliamentary control through group questions, releasing grumbles in view of the meeting of the new 4th.

But well -known criticism of electoral law have also been lived. It should be noted, once the bonus was given to the first regardless of his percentage – for example, Antonis Samaras’ ND had 18% in 2012.

Blue come back into the realm of the script for any targeted corrections to the enhanced proportional model.

And while MPs are intensifying for their chances of re -election and the possibility of claiming self -reliance, Mitsotakis refuses to think experiments. Even his « own », critics of the current model, acknowledge that he is committed to his own categorical denial that he will change the « mechanics » of electoral law.

The Prime Minister’s Office cuts any electoral debate and officially wants to show that it gives the bet on the « tangible outcome », struggling to expand the government’s daily routine to address expanded audiences.

The project « Recovery of the Forces – Retry of Voters » seems demanding.

Measurement experts agree that quality analyzes show significantly limited ND tanks. It is not only its collapse, due to the load of the Tempi, at anyway « difficult » younger ages – the 17s and 20s.

A valid source states that a total of 17-40 years old the ND is a second party and with a difference (five-six points) from the first, the freedom.

To Zoe Konstantopoulou, the ND also loses – the latest findings have shown neo -democratic leaks at the same percentages of Freedom Freedom and PASOK, only from PASOK the ruling party is already getting.

The image of the ND at the age of 40-54 is problematic, with analysts estimating that this is not exclusively a « Tempi footprint ».

What has not changed is the superiority of the center -right faction to over 55 and primarily at 65+.

An experienced pollist has recently seen the limitation of neo -democratic losses to the voice of logic, on the other hand, a tendency to balance in the ND -PASOK battle in the Centers: So a « correction » in favor of the ND but mainly because PASOK falls, not because it goes up.

For its part, Maximus has a steady interest in the enhanced gray zone of the undecided – the women’s domination zone, which identifies at least a 10% ND voters in the European elections. There, the rulers distinguished claimable audiences.