Will veterans of war in Ukraine have new children? Surprising forecasts
Russian media indicate that the officials there expect serious social problems with the end of the war, including mass use of alcohol and drugs, and a rapid increase in violence. The latter is to be manifested not only in public places, but also at home. Longing wives can face their husbands, who after the atrocities of war will be completely different people. There is talk of an expected increased number of rapes within the relationship, which is to result in an increase in the number of pregnancies. In Ukraine, specialists expect the opposite. In their opinion, the fatal demographic situation will deteriorate even more. The reason is to be, among others A significant advantage of women over men, which will not be conducive to procreation. There will probably be more births temporarily, but it will not be a permanent trend.
According to « The Moscow Times, the source in federal authorities claims that the system at the moment is able to cope with the influx of people returning from the front, but mass demobilization can lead to its breakdown: » If thousands of people return from the front at once, the system may not be able to cope with it. » It’s about a catastrophic lack of psychologists. The website informs that some universities have already launched retraining programs for students, but the effectiveness of this approach is doubtful. – There are young students there. Do you think a military age -old with trauma will listen to them? Of course not – commented the official of the Ministry of Labor, quoted by « The Moscow Times ». There is also talk of a huge challenge, which the return of Russian veterans will be for their families.
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Russian families will pass hell after the war?
The authorities are aware that the return of men from the front will also be a challenge for their families. « These Moscow Times » reports that many wives expect this day to be a joyful opportunity, but in fact it can turn into conflicts and violence. First of all, families will suffer from PTSD veterans (combat stress – editor’s note). According to the Ministry of Labor, the adaptation of men to a peaceful life will take at least 1-2 years. The website indicates that the ministry also provides for an increase in the number of unplanned pregnancies, which can lead to a kind of « post -war demographic growth ».
However, it is not worth expecting a stable increase in birth rate and the appearance of new, happy families after the war – emphasizes the ministry. The Russian authorities admit that more crimes have already been reported. Most often, soldiers attack their relatives and friends. Russian media reports that Most of these crimes are home and are associated with alcohol abuse.
Less and fewer births in Ukraine. Will it be even worse after the war? Not enough men
Meanwhile, the demographic situation in Ukraine is very bad and the forecasts are not optimistic. The Ukrainian Ministry of Justice provided data for 2024. According to them, 495,000 died. people, and only 176 thousand were born It is nearly 6 percent less than a year ago. Meanwhile, in 2021, before the outbreak of a full -size war, the birth rate was at the level of 273 thousand. So you can see that the decline is huge.
The Ukrainian portal Tsn.ua asked Oleksandra Gladun, deputy director of scientific work of the Institute of Demography and the problems of the quality of life of the National Academy of Sciences about this situation. He pointed to the problem of the difference between the number of women and men in Ukraine after the war. He emphasized that there were more women before the full -scale invasion of women than men – there were 86 men out of 100 women. Now, in addition, more men die on the front during the war. In cities distant from the front, this ratio is about one to one.
The death of men on the front leads to the fact that the disproportion is growing again in favor of women, and the fact that women leave the country changes this disproportion in favor of men. This means that the indicators are subject to continuous fluctuations and how it will look like it, we will assess at the beginning of this year in the following months
– forecasts Oleksandr Gladun, cited by Tsn.ua.
What about births in Ukraine after the war?
– After the war, we anticipate an increase in the number of births. (…) There will be births that people put off until the end of the war. But the longer the war lasts, the smaller the effect of the compensatory increase in birth rate will be. This is because over time the way people follow some guidelines, and the circumstances also change. Some people planning to have children are aging, and the number of young couples entering into marriage decreases in absolute numbers. So it can be said that after the war the birth rate will increase, but it will not be very large – says Gladun. He calculates that so that the population does not decrease due to natural factors, it is necessary for 100 women to give birth to about 220 children.
The specialist sees another threat.
The prolonged war can lead to a significant increase in the number of divorces among Ukrainian families. As for women, their significant number went abroad, being still unmarried. There is a probability that they will find a partner there. However, if a girl or woman marries a foreigner, it is unlikely that she will return to Ukraine. Yes, he will achieve some benefits by realizing some of his plans – he will get a decent job, start a family. And for Ukraine, this means the loss of the population, the loss of reproductive potential
– assesses the expert in an interview with TSN.AU.
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