Will oil prices go to heaven for the conflict of Israel and Iran – BBC News in Serbian

The latest conflict of Israel and Iran could significantly reflect the global financial market.

The price of oil rose immediately, but after the exchange of rocket and unmanned attacks during the weekend, the price of crude fell.

The price of oil is $ 10 (8.64 euros) than a month ago, and it is growing fear that the gasoline and food will rise due to increased energy costs.

Same scenario It was seen after the Russian invasion on Ukraine in February 2022. which was reflected in the lives of people around the world.

How much oil rose?

Attacks they immediately caused market reactions.

Raw Oil, Main International Standard,

The price dropped to about $ 74.5, but it’s still $ 10 higher than the previous month.

It constantly increases and falls in response to large geopolitical events and the state of the global economy, and is not surprising that changes in the Israeli-Iranian conflict has occurred.

But the price is far below the level compared to 2024, and it is significantly below the maximum reached two years earlier after the invasion of Moscow on Kiev, when she jumped at almost $ 130 per barrel.

Will he rose and gas?

When the wholesale price of oil increases, consequently rise and gasoline.

But more expensive energy is also reflected in prices almost everything: from agriculture to production.

It affects the price of agricultural machines, product transport, but also processing food packaging.

It only comes if energy costs are higher over a long period of time.

Even the growth of crude oil prices is limited to petrol and diesel.

« General rule To increase $ 10 oil price increases, gasoline on the pump was seven pennies more expensive, » says David Obscs from the company Capital Economics.

But he points out that this is not only about oil.

Many will remember the shock price that followed the beginning of the war in Ukraine.

It was greatly a response to more gasoline prices, reminiscent of oxyl.

Many heat the homes of gas, and in the UK, the price of electricity is determined in relation to the price of gas, which also rose at the beginning of the exchange of fire in the Middle East.

But this will reflect on the budget of households more slowly, if there are any consequences in mind, having in mind the role of regulator in price limiting, he adds.

Should oil prices further increase?

The current situation is « very important and worrying, » says Richard Bronze, Head of Geopolitics in the Consulting and Research Company Energy aspects.

But he believes influence will not be so much as caused by the conflict in Ukraine or previous problems in the Middle East.

The main issues are how long will the conflict of Israel and Iran take place, whether other countries in the region will be involved and whether the United States will intervene.

Whether it will be a consequence depends on whether ormusky seamen will be closed, a waterway near the south coast of Iran and routes to global markets for about a fifth of world oil production.

« It is a bottleneck and is therefore a vulnerable point for global oil markets, » Bronze says.

There are little chances that such a scenario will come, although Iran was previously threatened to close it.

This external factor affects rising prices, adds.

If there is no break in deliveries, it is unlikely that oil prices will remain high.

After the Russian invasion, in Ukraine, there was an increase in energy demand as the global economy opened after a pandemic corona virus.

The world economy is now facing harder times, and oil producers from Saudi Arabia to Brazil are able to increase the offer of this resource, which would help punch its price.

What does this mean for the world economy?

Whether energy prices will grow depends on the situation between Israel and Iran.

It can be a « World Economy Shock at a bad time, » warns Muhamed El-Irijan, the Chief Economic Adviser in the Company Allians.

« Whatever you look will be negative.

« It is another shock for the stability of the global economic order managed by America at the time the world trade has already been shaken Tramp’s Customs.

If oil prices returned to over $ 100 per barrel, inflation in the developed economy would increase by one percent, which does not support central banks that will lower the interest rates, the calculation of the company is Capital Economics.

But David Oklly thinks the chances of like this scenario are small.

« Instability in the Middle East is nothing new, we have seen numerous conflicts so far.

« In a week, everything could pass, » Okly added.

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