Why the end of the PKK for Erdogan can be a new beginning

The Kurdish conflict was a constant of Turkish interior and foreign policy for over 40 years. If it is actually solved peacefully, this would be one of the most important course since the foundation of the Turkish Republic. The big winner could head Recep Tayyip Erdogan be.

Many questions are still open after the Kurdish terrorist organization PKK followed an appeal from her imprisoned founder Abdullah Öcalan a week ago and decided to resolve. How should the disarmament of the rebels take place, who can monitor the process? Can the Turkish government offer PKK fighters a perspective to return from the mountains and for reintegration? It will depend on how many of the approximately 5,000 rebels follow the call for peace.

A political role for Öcalan?

It is also uncertain whether the Kurdish militia YPG in Syria, an offshoot of the PKK that will stretch weapons. And what will become of Öcalan? Since 1999 he has been in prison on the IMrali prison island in the Marmaramener because of high treason. Can the 76-year-old expect his pardon now? Erdogan’s coalition partner Devlet Bahceli, head of the Ultra nationalist party MHP, has already brought a release into play. Will Öcalan even take on a political role in the future?

While speculation is still being speculated about these questions, head of state Erdogan is likely to worry about his own political future. A peaceful solution to the Kurdish conflict, which reached civil war-like dimensions in the 1980s and 1990s, would not only secure a place in the history books and polish up its international reputation. She could also help him cement his power.

In May 2028, parliamentary and presidential elections must take place in Turkey at the latest. According to the constitution, Erdogan may not candid for a third term. Unless the constitution is changed or the parliament dissolves before the end of the regular legislative period. Then Erdogan could compete again.

Erdogan’s rival continues to be in custody

For a constitutional change or a dissolution of the National Assembly, however, he needs support from the ranks of the opposition. Erdogan cannot expect help from the bourgeois-social democratic CHP. Their presidential candidate Ekrem Imamoglu, the popular mayor of Istanbul, was relieved of his office in March and has been in prison ever since. The judiciary accuses him of corruption and « terrorism ». The CHP accuses Erdogan that he wants to get rid of his most promising rival with the criminal proceedings against Imamoglu. According to an opinion survey from last week, Imamoglu is seven percentage points ahead of Erdogan.

Imamoglu owed his election as Mayor Istanbul to support the Pro-Kurdish party. Last but not least, this is due to his dismissal and indictment. Erdogan described the PKK’s political camouflage organization in the past. Hundreds of officials of the party are in custody due to alleged connections to the PKK.

Is there a constitutional change?

But now the cards are mixed again. Now it is Erdogan who waves it. With the 56 MEPs, Erdogan in parliament would have the necessary majority to set up a constitutional change. So Erdogan could secure the presidential office for life. In return, if he admits more cultural and political minority rights to the approximately 15 million Kurds in the new Turkish Basic Law, such as the use of their mother tongue in state education, the votes of many Kurdish voters would be certain in the next presidential election. This becomes the peace process in the Kurdish conflict on the political question of fate for Erdogan.

The same applies to the PKK. She also has an interest in looking for ways of legality. The PKK has millions of followers among the Kurdish population in the southeast of Türkiye. And Öcalan is an idol for many even after 26 years in prison. But the organization is strongly weakened by the constant Turkish attacks on their camps in the Iraqi Kandil mountains. There is also less and less support for the military struggle among the population. He didn’t bring anything to the Kurds, except tens of thousands of dead and even greater repression.

A resolution and disarmament of the PKK could end the military conflict. But the Kurdish question remains. Your solution will attach the right to the government of the minority and how quickly it can improve the living conditions of the people in the southeast of the country, which has been economically neglected in the long run.