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Why Putin could actually be ready for a ceasefire now – DiePresse.com

avril 25, 2025

Russia’s president has softened his conditions for an armistice. Does Vladimir Putin only tact, or does he actually want to stop the war in Ukraine?

For hours, new clouds of smoke got into the sky, accompanied by endless explosions of artillery cables and mines. This week, one of the main ammunition camps of the Russian Ministry of Defense pulse around 100,000 tons of ammunition. It was an Arsenal near Kirzhach in the northeast of Moscow, about 500 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Russian authorities named a fire, caused by inherent handling as the cause of the destruction. However, a Ukrainian attack with newly developed marching aircraft and long -distance roar is more likely.

Again and again, Ukraine not only attacks ammunition depots, military airports and logistics, but also the ÖLINFRASTROCTION. The production of the oil refineries decreased by at least ten percent last year. Finally, as a result of customs policy of US President Donald Trump, oil prices fell. This broke a main source of income Moscow, with which it financed the Ukraine War.

The increasing economic imbalance with high inflation, interest of 21 percent and horrendous government expenditure could be the reason why the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, apparently deviates from his apodictic conditions for the end of the war in Ukraine. According to media reports, the Russian head of state is intended to give up its previous regional claims on the Ukrainian Oblasts Cherson, Donetsk and Saporischschja and accept the current front course as a demarcation line. He only wants Luhansk completely.

Witkoff in Moscow

APA / AFP / Kristina Kormilitsyna

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APA / AFP / Kristina Kormilitsyna

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Reuters / Kremlin.ru

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Putin was said to have in the prospect of Putin during a meeting in St. Petersburg at the beginning of the month Steve Witkoff, whom he met again on Friday, this time in Moscow. On this option, Trump’s “last offer”, which he is said to have presented Russia and Ukraine, is probably based on this option.

According to the US plan, which first documented the Axios news platform and then the Reuters agency, Ukraine « de facto » must also recognize Russian control over almost all areas that have been occupied since the beginning of the war and de Jure also the annexation of the Black Sea peninsula Crimea. « The Crimea will remain Russian, » said Trump in « Time Magazine »

In return, Ukraine should not be allowed to join NATO, but the EU and received a “robust security guarantee” from an ad hoc group of European countries and possibly other non-European countries. The United States is calling for an early agreement, otherwise you would withdraw.

The Ukrainian President, Wolodymyr Selenskij, can hardly agree to Trump’s proposal. Because so far he has categorically excluded areas of regulations on Russia: « There is nothing to talk about. That is outside of our constitution, » said the head of state again. Together with the Europeans, the Ukrainians presented a counter-proposal in which US security guarantees are explicitly required.

Stagnation on the front

The US proposal would also be difficult for Russia despite the concessions. Ultimately, it would be the admission of a defeat. Because the Kremlin could not fulfill its declared war goals even after three years of war and hundreds of thousands of fallen soldiers in his army. At the end of March 2022, Russia occupied 30 percent of Ukraine. Today it is only 19 percent. None of the four Ukrainian wafers officially annexed by Moscow is fully under Russian control. European protection troops in Ukraine would be the opposite of what Putin wanted to achieve with his war of attack.

But a decision on the battlefield is also not in sight. The Russian offensive, which started a year ago, has slowed down significantly in recent months. The attack has come to a standstill on some front sections, such as in Pokrowsk, which has been fought for months. According to the open source intelligence platform Deepstate Map, the Russian area gains have decreased continuously since winter. In March, Moscow only conquered 133 square kilometers along the over 1000 km long front, which is the lowest monthly area since June 2024. In November there were still 725 square kilometers. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian army was able to fill a total of 4772 square kilometers from April 2024 to March 2025. This is not even one percent of the total territory of Ukraine, the Crimea Peninsula and the Donbass region.

Driven out of Kursk

The front line was stabilized due to the effective work of the Ukrainian drone units, increased Air Force attacks and new electronic defense against the feared Russian sliding bombs. The exhaustion of the Russian army, which had been on the offensive for over a year, also included a decisive factor. In the first three months of this year alone, Moscow is said to have lost up to 100,000 soldiers through death or wounding. « They only attack in small groups with three or four people, » Ukrainian soldiers reported to the « press » in March. « Vehicles also seem to have ended, » added a commander of a front position. « In the past we rolled up to us almost every day, but that rarely occurs today. »

In contrast, Ukraine was only able to make up 77 square kilometers from April 2024 to March 2025. The armed forces in Kiev have lost almost all of the areas conquered in August in the Russian Kursk Oblast. At the end of March, they only checked 70 square kilometers of the 1300 square kilometers, as Deepstate reported. For this purpose, Ukrainian troops have entered the Russian region of Belgorod further south and are to control around 15 square kilometers there.

In advance in Sumy

Russia uses a massive contingent of infantry to push the Ukrainians back over the Russian border in their second advance. The aim of the Ukrainian armed forces is to bind as many Russian units as possible in this area in order to hold them from a stake in the Sumy region. At the end of March, President Selenskij had already warned of a new Russian spring and summer offensive in the regions of Sumy and Charkiw. Two weeks later, Oleksandr Syrskij announced that the offensive had started. « For several days we have almost observed the enemy attacks in all main directions on the front, » said the general.

Moscow is said to have over 60,000 soldiers in the Sumy border region, including around 10,000 soldiers from North Korea. After the Ukrainians were largely driven out of the Kursk Oblast, some of the Russian units were finally able to start the attack on Sumy, which was planned last year.