Why is the Black Sea crucial for the Ukraine-Russian ceasefire?!

The US and Russia issued contradictory statements after recent negotiations. What does this mean for the future of possible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine?
At the beginning of the week, American and Russian delegations to Saudi Arabia (24.03) sat at the negotiation table, in order to end the war in Ukraine. The specificity of the meeting was to provide a special ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea, which would allow the resort of wheat exports from the Ukraine ports. Talks between delegations lasted 12 hours, a record. But despite long discussions, none of the countries rushed to declare results. Instead of issuing a joint statement after the end of the talks, the US and Russia issued special statements afterwards, with similarities, with changes to some essential details.

The Kremlin links the deal to the removal of sanctions
Ukraine and Russia reached a ceasefire agreement in the Black Sea and coordinating details of stopping shocks in the energy infrastructure, the White House said. The Kremlin, however, issued a statement confirming that the countries agreed to guarantee the safety of navigation in the Black Sea. It was also mentioned that the US would help restore Russian agricultural goods access to the global market.

The Kremlin said the ceasefire will only come into force after some conditions have been met if some sanctions on Russia are partially removed. In particular, Russia is seeking the removal of restrictions on companies involved in the exports of the food and banks that support them. The Kremlin also demands that sanctions on Russian flag vessels be removed that trade chemicals and fertilizers as well as the removal of restrictions on imports of agricultural equipment in Russia.

While the White House said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had agreed on a ceasefire in the Black Sea after Russia released

Derlata, he reacted harshly, accusing Moscow of lying about negotiation conditions. « There is something that the Kremlin is lying about again: that the silence in the Black Sea depends on the issue of sanctions, » Zelensky said in his speech to the Ukrainian people. In reality, he said, the ceasefire in the Black Sea has not been linked to sanctions against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said removing Russian sanctions would be a « disaster for diplomacy »

Reduced the risks of escalation
According to the White House interpretation, the agreement would « eliminate the use of force » in the Black Sea for maritime trade. The White House statement also mentions that the US will « help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime costs and improve access to ports and payment systems for such transactions ». It is unclear whether this would include a partial relief of sanctions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Tuesday’s television comments that Russia wants to base this new Black Sea initiative on the previous wheat agreement, but warned that Russian interests should be protected.

Despite the obvious disputes, experts told DW that the parties involved in the negotiations are likely to soon reach a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Political analyst Alexandra Filippenko, a Lithuanian scholar at the Institute of Studies for Canada and America, believes the deal « is the largest of a few small steps ahead ». « It’s not a big progress, but it’s a step towards reducing the risks of escalation, » Filippenko added.

According to the UN, the cereal agreement with Ukraine facilitated the export of 32 million tons of grain to 45 seats in three continents between July 2022 and July 2023. As UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said at the time, the agreement was crucial for global food safety.

Trump « is unlikely to blame Putin »
Simply being the fact that Russia issued a statement on special conditions has led US President Donald Trump to accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of prevented a peace deal. In an interview with Newsmax news cable network, Trump said the Russians are « dragging » a deal. Alexandra Filippenko sees Trump’s statements as a significant departure from his previous promises to end the conflict quickly. « In recent months, Trump’s attitude towards Putin has shifted from secret admiration, amazement and belief that Putin respects Trump and is ready to reach a quick deal, now to a more careful and skeptical attitude, » Filippenko notes.

Political analyst Anton Barbashi believes Donald Trump will make concessions to the Kremlin. According to him, Trump does not intend to criticize Putin for his unwillingness to make peace. ”The US is investing a considerable amount of time to achieve at least something, so I would assume that they will continue to try to fulfill at least some of Russia’s promises in a way before they say it is Putin’s fault that nothing is working. In fact, the situation seems quite favorable for Russia, according to Barbashi. According to him, a ceasefire in the Black Sea does not cost Russia anything.

Situation in the Black Sea
In a recent interview with the European Transmission Union, Abu, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Ukraine controls the situation in the Black Sea. « They (the Russians) have not controlled the Black Sea Corridor for a long time. We are fighting for it because it is a step towards the end of the war. We control the situation in the Black Sea, » Zelensky said.

Alexander Paliy, a Ukrainian political analyst, told DW that over the past year, Russia recedes in the eastern part of the Black Sea and has not been able to carry out large -scale attacks in the region. He said Ukraine achieved this through the use of marine drones. As a result, wheat trade is operating at more or less pre -war levels, Paul said. He believes a new wheat deal would be more useful for Russia.

« Ukraine can attack Russian ships involved in oil exports or other exports at any moment. However, (Ukraine) takes care of environmental effects and positions of countries like Turkey and the US are important. That is why Ukraine has been very careful, » Paul said.

Russia’s presence in the Black Sea is crucial for him not only for trade but also, as Kremlin has repeatedly stated for the country’s security. Under international law, Russia owns only about 10% of the Black Sea coastline. However, through its growing impact on the region, Russia effectively controls about one -third of the coastline currently.

Russia has a military presence in Crimea, which it annexed illegally in 2014, and the Republic of Abkhazia in the southern Caucasus region, which is not internationally recognized, has made this presence possible. In Russia, military forces stationed in ABKHAZI are seen as key to guarantee the safety of the southern Russian borders.