Who has the best chances?

The Eurovision Song Contest (ESC) is an annual festival of music in which European and other nations compete against each other. The 69th edition of the competition will take place in Basel in 2025 – Switzerland owes this to its victory in the previous year, achieved by Nemo and the song « The Code ». Before the finale captivates millions of spectators on May 17th, two semi -finals (No. 1 and No. 2) in which the participating countries fight for the coveted place in the big showdown. The offices and websites of the bookmakers and betting providers run hot with forecasts and speculations about the favorite or the favorites.

Favorites at the ESC 2025: Who has the best chances?

None less than that Eurovision Personal has joined reading the coffee grounds and the following revealed to us:

The ESC 2025 takes place with a total of 37 participating nations. The betting odds on Sweden already interpret as favorites, represented by the « Kaj » act. The Scandinavians are currently at the top, followed by « JJ » from Austria and « Louane » from France.

Germany, represented by « Abor & Tynna » with her song « Baller », has gone through a certain development in the betting odds. After the preliminary decision, which took place on March 1st, Germany initially slipped to 23rd place from 12th place. Germany is currently ranked 22nd. However, according to the betting forecasts, the opportunities for Germany remain relatively low, since they only predict the winner and take no placements of the other countries into account.

The Spotify streaming ranking, in which Italy, with Lucio Corsi and his song « Volevo Essere and UN Duro », records the most calls, a total of over 34 million. Sweden with Kaj and the title « Bara Bada Bastu » follows closely behind with around 31.7 million streams. San Marino, represented by Gabry Ponte with « Tutta L’Italia », is significantly ago with around 11.5 million streams. Germany is in eighth place in the streaming ranking with around 8.3 million for « Baller ».

In summary, it turns out that Sweden is a strong favorite for both bookmakers and streaming, while Italy is particularly impressed by streaming numbers. So far, Germany remains in the middle of the quotas and streaming placements.

Favorites and opportunities at the ESC 2025: These are the forecasts of Switzerland

It is clear that our colleagues in Switzerland deal particularly intensively with the ESC 2025 because of the local venue in Basel. The Daily Anzeiger For example, it is therefore not only interested in the already constantly fluctuating numbers of the bookmakers, but also analyzes the emotional factors around the ESC 2025. The colleagues also published a snapshot of this, What the favorites do before the competition. Here is a compressed view of the Zurich regional newspaper:

Li): Relative List-None (&> Li): PL- (1.2EM) (&> Li): Marker: Text- (0) (&> Li): Relative (&> Li): Before: Absolute (&> Li): Before: W-3 (&> Li): Before: H-3 (&> Li): Before: BG-fire (& Li): Before: LEFT-0 (&> Li): Before: Top- (8px) (&> Li): Before: Rounded-Full My-5 « >
• The ESC 2025 in Basel is from Sweden led, both in the betting odds and in streaming. A total of 37 countries compete, and Sweden, represented by the ACT KAJ, is the top favorite. JJ is in second place among the bookmakers Austriafollowed by Louane France. Germany, represented by Abor & Tynna with « Baller », is currently in 22nd place in the betting odds. The development of the German placement was turbulent: after the preliminary decision slipped Germany First of all, in 23th place, but was now able to improve slightly.
• With a probability of winning of 5 percent, the Netherlands With « Claude » and his song « C’est La Vie » currently 4th place in the ranking of the betting shops. The pop song begins with a melancholic piano melody that immediately arouses familiarity and deals with the ups and downs of life. From the first chorus, the title-entirely in the typical ESC style-transforms into a danceable number with a driving bass. The associated music video shows Claude, who has already landed a number one hit in the Netherlands, together with a boy who is portrayed as the younger image of the singer.
• Israel This year’s contribution is entitled « New Day Will Rise » and addresses cohesion and hope. The singer Yuval Raphael processes it – subtle but noticeable – both the collective trauma of her nation and her personal. She barely survived the attack by Hamas fighters at the Nova Festival by hiding in a bunker under corpses. So far there is only a music video, but no live performance that could provide information about the appearance in Basel. However, the song impresses with Yuval’s powerful voice and a touching story that she tells in three languages ​​- English, French and Hebrew.

In summary, it turns out that Sweden has strong chances of winning, both among the bookmakers and streaming. Italy impresses with high streaming numbers, while Germany remains in the middle. It remains to be seen how the placements develop in May.

ESC 2025: The odds of the bookmakers

Currently (as of April 23, 2025), a round of dozen large betting providers have these profit probabilities and odds on offer:

1. Sweden: Kaj – Bara Bada Bastu (37%), quote: 1.91 to 2.18
2. Austria: JJ – Wasted Love (15%), quota: 4.33 to 5.65
3. France: Louane – Maman (9%), quote: 7.5 to 10
4. Netherlands: Claude – C’est La Vie (5%), quota: 13 to 20
5. Israel: Yuval Raphael – New Day Will Rise (5%), quote: 11 to 22
6. Czech Republic: Adonxs – Kiss Kiss Goodbye (4%), quota: 17 to 29
7. Finland: Erika Vikman – I come (3%), quote: 19 to 36
8. Belgium: Red Sebastian – Strobe Lights (3%), quota: 21 to 46
9. Estonia: Tommy Cash – Espresso Macchiato (2%), quota: 26 to 50
10. Albania: Shkodra Elektronike – Zjerm (2%), quota: 17 to 90
11. Ukraine: ZIFERBLAT – Bird of Pray (1%), quota: 26 to 100
12. Malta: Miriana Conte – Serving (1%), quota: 41 to 85
13. United Kingdom: Remember Monday – What the Hell Just Happened? (1%), quota: 34 to 120
14. Italy: Lucio Corsi – Volevo Essere UN Duro (1%), quota: 34 to 130
15. Cyprus: Theo Evan – SHH (1%), quota: 34 to 100
16. San Marino: Gabry Ponte – Tutta L’Italia (1%), quote: 26 to 150
17th Switzerland: Zoë Më – Voyage (1%), quota: 67 to 270
18. Ireland: Emmy – Laika Party (1%), quota: 34 to 210
19. Greece: Klavdia – Asteromata (1%), quota: 41 to 330
20. Australia: Go -YO – Milkshake Man (1%), quota: 34 to 310
21. Norway: Kyle Alessandro – Lighter (1%), quota: 51 to 290
22. Germany: Abor & Tynna – Baller (1%), quota: 41 to 310
23. Lithuania: Qatarsis – Tavo Akys (1%), quota: 34 to 440
24. Spain: Melody – ESA Diva (1%), quota: 101 to 250
25. Azerbaijan: Mamagama – Run with U (26. Poland: Justyna Steczkowska – Gaja (27th Denmark: Sissal – Hallucination (28th Slovenia: Klemen – How Much Time Do We Have Left (29. Serbia: Princ – Mila: Parg – Survivor (31. Luxembourg: L. Thorn – La Poupée Monte … (32nd Portugal: Napa – Deslocado (33. Latvia: TautumeiTas – Bur Man Laimi (34. Georgia: Mariam Shengelia – Freedom (35. Island: Væb – Róa (36. Montenegro: Nina Žić – Dobrodošli (37. Croatia: Marko Bošnjak – Poison Cake (

Statistically, betting odds of the bookmakers are not meaningful for placements, since only the win is bet. It is hardly worth relying on the favorites for weather and weather because the profit margins are low.

Opportunities & Favorites at the ESC 2025: How do the betting quotas actually come about?

The lowest odds, of course, stand for the best chances of making the race. The individual betting providers do not always agree, but a tendency is emerging continuously: Sweden wins again, Germany is in a healthy midfield. At least if the augurens are right. Why is that?

Betting odds usually do not follow the crystal ball, but they are based on certain factors, among many others, for example:

Li): Relative List-None (&> Li): PL- (1.2EM) (&> Li): Marker: Text- (0) (&> Li): Relative (&> Li): Before: Absolute (&> Li): Before: W-3 (&> Li): Before: H-3 (&> Li): Before: BG-fire (& Li): Before: LEFT-0 (&> Li): Before: Top- (8px) (&> Li): Before: Rounded-Full My-5 « >
• Historical data: Trends and patterns are analyzed to support predictions for results.
• Current form: the current performance and constitution of the artists.

Sweden is considered the most successful nation in the history of the Eurovision Song Contest if you take the number of top 3 positions as a yardstick. The Scandinavian artists won the competition six times. The most significant success occurred in 1974 when a band called « Abba », which was still largely unknown at the time, won the Grand Prix in Brighton in English with her song « Waterloo ». This moment marked the beginning of one of the greatest pop careers in music history. In 2023, Sweden was again a hot favorite with Loreen’s song « Tattoo ». She also won.

And Germany? With Nicole (“A little peace”, 1982) and Lena (“Satellite”, 2010), German contributions were able to get the ESC crown twice. But apart from these successes, the great triumph was largely out of the end.

ESC favorites: Can Metadata of the Songs predict the winner?

The Eurovision raised this exciting question on its website and investigated the examination of a data team of the NDR published on the subject. At the Exemplate of the ESC 2023, the researchers examined whether factors such as dancing, beats per minute, major/minor indicate whether a song delivered or not.

The results are very interesting and should best be in Original be digested. Small spoiler: Human behavior, especially in the voting of the ESC audience, often evades any measurability. It is therefore not surprising that acts and songs that appear promising, based on data analyzes, do not even reach the final stage in the end.