White House rejects analyzes of the International Monetary Fund

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which ends with a World Bank in Washington, is due Donald Trump announced a decrease in global growth from 3.3 to 2.8 percent. US Finance Minister Scott Bessent IMF accused the assumption of competences that have nothing to do with global monetary cooperation and financial stability.

During the stormy time of criminal customs duties, Donald Trump also, the Spring Section of IMF and the World Bank, could not be without serious quarrel on economic development worldwide. A global financial institution with 191 members whose spring session was attended by the Bank of Slovenia Deputy Governor on behalf of Slovenia Primož Dolenc and the Minister of Finance Klemen Boštjančičin a quarterly report, has announced slower growth in most countries, including the US, as well as the dollar as a reserve world currency. « We are coming into a new era, the global economic system that has been operating for the last eighty years, has been reset, » said the Economic Advisor of the Fund Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.

Trumponomics, who wants to return production in the US, is the focus of discussions of this spring meeting of the most prominent international financial institutions. The IMF, which has a seat with a global bank not far from the White House, sees the most difficulty for the US. Trump has temporarily stopped additional criminal customs for countries with a major trade surplus, including the European Union, and ten percent remain for everyone, in addition to 25 % for steel, aluminum and cars. Many countries have opted for negotiations, and the most important US race for economic and other dominance in the world China has announced a fight for US products for US products.

The IMF added a warning that American customs duties exceed those from the great depression of the 1930s, the drop in global growth due to these allegedly exceeding the one after the Russian attack on Ukraine. This year they see a decrease in global growth from 3.3 to 2.8 percent, for next year from 3.3 to three percent. Among those who will suffer the largest growth fall, according to their US, with 1.8 percent of growth instead of the previously predicted 2.7 percent. According to Gourinchas, the likelihood of a recession in the central economic superpower has also increased, but this is not very likely. « We have an economy that comes from a position of power, » he said. « We still have a robust labor market. »

The Chinese economy has also announced a decline from 4.6 percent to four percent, and the euro area countries only 0.8 % this year’s growth instead of the announced one percent. On the contrary, US Finance Minister Bessent has accused the IMF dealing with climate change, gender issues and social issues. « These questions are not the IMF mission, » he advocated dealing with critical macroeconomic issues.

It is restricted by financial markets

Trump’s administration continues to convince that higher customs duties will help the US economy, and reject the analysis of the IMF that in the background the catastrophic loss of US jobs is not globalization, but technological progress and automation. They point to five million industrial jobs that have not disappeared but moved to China and elsewhere. The surplus in activities cannot replace the collapse of old industrial centers, and domestic production is already required by national interest. The dangers of dependence on foreign production were obvious in the initial period of the Covida-19 pandemic, when China did not want to export basic supplies such as protective masks.

The Trump Asian giant officially blames the pandemic, whose origin they see at the Wuhan Institute of Virology – perhaps even because of the then trade dictates China. Proponents of his hard customs policy are also awaiting the overflow of other economic measures into US economic growth. The Republican President has liberalized the acquisition of fossil and other energy in the country, plans to reduce taxes, and during the spring session of the IMF and the World Bank, contrary to international protocols, he signed an enforcement order for mining on oceanic soils in US and international waters. The second should prepare American workforce with a modern apprenticeship system for well -paid jobs of the future.

The President of the Central Bank Fed Jerome Powell. Photo: Ken Cedeno/Reuters

Opponents of his politics hope that he will continue to be restricted by financial markets. Also because of the dangerous turmoil on these, the Republican President stressed that he did not intend to dismiss the President of the US Central Bank Jerom Powllawhich, in his opinion, does not lower enough interest rates. He may also be afraid of the IMF estimates of the possible great effects of his dollar policy as a backup world currency.

Also concerned in Europe and Slovenia

Slovenian correspondents talked about talks in Washington and the international economy with representatives of Slovenia at the IMF and the World Bank. « In fact, we are constantly talking about uncertainty, which has lately been extremely high, how it will affect the economy, other economic categories, especially inflation and international trade, » said Bank of Slovenia’s deputy governor Primož Dolenc. « The world order, which was eighty years old, is now demolished, we all think about what the consequences will be, how it will be established, how the cards will be new. »

Deputy Governor of the Bank of Slovenia Primož Dolenc on the discussion, archival photography. Photo: Leon Vidic/Work

It is now clear that the effect on the economy is the growth of all this negative, he said. “Uncertainty has a negative impact on the economy of growth, the activity of individuals, the activity of companies, on investments, consumption, and so on. However, if customs and other measures were seriously introduced, it could affect higher inflation. ”The sign of uncertainty is already IMF estimates that have reduced growth forecasts for most countries with Slovenia. When asked about the status of a dollar as a reserve world currency, he said that they had not talked seriously. « The dollar has been a spare currency for decades, but it is true that certain investors lose some of their confidence in it. » Thinks that the dollar will continue to be a very important currency, but others, such as the euro, can be increasingly important.

« I would say that after two days, I was even more concerned here than I was before, » said Slovenian Finance Minister Klemen Boštjančič. “In the last two weeks, things have been reassuring that things will not go in the direction that has been announced a month, two back, and talks with colleagues who were present at G 7 have shown that they were very concerned. Americans do not relent with pressure, I even heard the term ‘bullying’. « The situation will not calm down, despite the fact that the financial markets look relatively right at this moment. “Even the value of the shares, for example German, has grown after the new year, but the American are lower, but not very much. In the background, however, things are still going on and absolutely not closed. « 

The Slovenian Finance Minister has been advocating the unity of Europe since the first day, in the present events he sees the test whether we will be able to be united. “The tactic of Americans is to divide countries, to offer those who will show more willingness to offer some benefits. It is a classic dilemma of a prisoner. ”Europe must retain unity, he stressed, we must not agree to partial agreements, but must coordinate within Europe. « Because Europe is very strong together, and Americans don’t have to sweep with us. »

Slovenian Finance Minister Klemen Boštjančič at the February meeting of the EU Finance Ministers in Brussels. Photo: Dursun Aydemir Anadolu Via AFP

Does the European Commission think he has a good plan to know what he wants to achieve in relation to such offensive US industrial policy? “I was positively surprised at the last two meetings of Ecofin because the European Commission has performed very clearly. Many times there have been a lot of talk at meetings or at individual points, but the conclusions were not as clear, there was a great deal of unity between the individual countries and the European Commission’s views. ”He believes that this can produce positive results for both Europe and Slovenia.

But I would hardly say that Trump is softening. “In fact, it is actually ungrateful to predict what is happening in the head of Trump and his closest associates. I believe that they will largely adapt the measures to the current situation and that they have been surprised by certain responses of the global financial markets. On the other hand, they will not admit that they have been mistaken. So I certainly believe that at the beginning we are a rather strenuous story if I try to express myself more diplomatically. « 

Should Europe now be afraid of the Chinese acquisition of its industry, just as they have taken over American? “I don’t think China is a big problem. Of course, some dumping offers with certain products may occur in the short term, but the fact is that what is happening at least in recent weeks show the Chinese response to it. It seems to me that Europe could also look like it. I am not talking about the introduction of opposing customs, but that the Chinese have markedly accelerated the agreement and signing of multilateral agreements with other countries. I think they have signed more than a hundred agreements with other Asian countries in the last fourteen days. «