What is the new German government brings the Balkans – BBC News in Serbian
To 144 sides coalition agreement Governments of Friedrich Merca, among 4,588 densely written rows, the Western Balkans are mentioned only twice.
After less than four years in the opposition, the Conservative Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) is returned to Vlasti in Berlin. Angele Merkeltoday the Merca chancellor.
« I do not expect CDU to make many changes to the Western Balkans, especially because they are Policies posted during Chancellor Merkel largely continued during the previous government Olafa šolca.
« Maybe the dictionary was slightly different with more sharpness, but essential policies did not change, » said Endjeluša Morina, who deals with the Balkan issues, for the BBC in Serbian.
In the new division of functions, the Western Balkans received something at first glance, and he lost something.
Johan Vadeful, New German Minister of Foreign Affairs, was dealing with the western Balkans in parliamentary and party career.
He will work without the help of the previous Special Envoy for the Balkans, the position that Manuel Zaracin performed in the previous cabinet, and whose successor was not appointed.
The Government of the Merca’s Office supports the coalition of his demochrissians (CDU), parties from which the head of diplomacy is Vadeful, and Social Democracy (SPD).
In the previous cabinet of the SPD Chancellor OLAFA Šolč, he was managed by Analena Berbok, a member of the Green Party.
SERBIA: Can stabilocracy come to life again?
Danes immediately before the election to the Ministerial Function, Johan Vadeful spent in the Balkans.
Returning from Skopje, With NATO Summitwithout the notice, visited Belgrade 6 April.
On meeting with the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, Vadeful was not announced anywhere.
His host, on the other hand, On Instagram He praised the meeting and the meeting described as excellent.
The photographs from the terrace of the Serbian presidency reminded the time when Vučić was happy to see the guest on the balcony of Chancellor Merkel in Berlin.
The former chancellor in the heritage has supported politicians in the Balkans such as Vučić or Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who claim to provide stability, regardless of the implementation of democratic rules in their countries -takosed stabilocracy.
« The new government would be difficult to justify the continuation of support for the concept of stabilocracy in the Balkans, especially due to the last protests and everything that happens in Serbia.
« I can’t imagine that full support for Serbia’s president, I see tryouts to better understand what happens in that country, » says Enjeluša Morina.
Frauke Zebas, analyst German Institute for Foreign and Security Policy, does not expect great turns in Berlin’s policy.
« There will be certain requirements for Belgrade, primarily when harmonization with the common foreign policy of the European Union is in question, as well as removal from Russia.
« Still, it will all be very quiet, behind closed doors and I don’t expect great pressure. »
Progressives, whose Vučić is now a member, and formal President Milos Vučević, with German Conservatives, and the European People’s Party (EPP), a group of conservative parties on the continent.
The CDU is one of the most important members in the EPP, and the progressives have the status of an associate member.
« I don’t think everyone at the top of CDA is satisfied with the way the SNS occupied the state and institutions in Serbia, but there is an idea that Vucic’s regime is such that it will work what is necessary, if a high enough price is offered.
« I think it’s the wrong assessment of how Vucic works and that she comes from Paris, where he went a step further with the alleged emotional view of French and Serbia, » Zebas points out.
Kosovo: What is Ashbin Curta waiting?
Although Aljbin Kurti, the leader of the most powerful parties in Kosovo, ideologically approached with the previous one, or previous four years, the relations of Pristina and Berlin were not idyllic.
« Kurti has its own vision of how dialogue should look like Serbia, and how to resolve issues in Kosovo, which is greatly irritating decision makers in the West.
« There must be a lot of respect for minority rights and, although I believe that his government has taken them into account, it did not like it so that many likes, » said Morina said.
Kosovo is thus further under the type of sanctions of the European Union due to the notification agreed in dialogue with Serbia.
« Berlin was loudest in advocating to abolish measures to Kosovo due to investments from Germany, but it did not come.
« However, it did not prevent German officials meet with Kosovo, regardless of sanctions, » says Zebas.
From the new German government, she expects some minor oscillations in attitudes.
« I think it will be more consistent with Kosovo, with fewer ups and downs.
« But due to the expected more intensive cooperation with French, as EU motor, Polish, it would mean that the new Kosovo government would not be much easier than so far. »
Elections in Kosovo were held in early February, but due to procedural difficulties and political crises three months later is not a consistent assemblynor is it known who will do a new ruling majority in Pristina.
The dilemmas do not have that Germany will continue to support Serbia-Kosovo dialogue, although it also takes place very slowly at the technical level.
On this issue, the current chief of diplati criticized the previous chancellor of the Shock when it comes to Belgrade In June 2022. He said that the recognition of Kosovo is a condition for Serbia’s entry into the European Union.
« It’s desirable and everyone knows that, but the recognition must come at the end of the process.
« Such a statement at the moment is amateur and puts a burden on the entire process that becomes difficult for Serbia, » he said Then Vadeful In the discussion in the Bundestag, the German parliament.
BiH: German with German support
And while demochrissians were in the opposition in Germany, a member of their sister party from the province of Bavaria (CSU) had a high position in one European country.
Cristian Schmidt is 2021 from August 2021. High Representative of the international community in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and is engaged in the application of the Dayton Agreement in 1995. ended war in this country.
In the work, it does not help him that Milorad Dodik, the President of the Republika Srpska, one of the two entities of BiH, does not recognize and disrespect his decisions.
Berlin is the beginning of April Dodik introduced sanctions and banned entry into Germanyand he replied to the threats to the German State Minister Ana Larman, which therefore shortened Visit Banja Luka.
« I think that Christian Schmit will have solid support from Berlin who will remain strongly dedicated to the territorial integrity of BiH, without support any talks about Secession.
« However, the arrest of Dodik looks like an inner issue of BiH, and thus the exit ticket is given, with fear of escalation, » says Frauke Zebas.
BiH judiciary is suspected Dodik to attack the Constitutional Order of the Earth, And at the end of February, he was first instigatedly sentenced to the year of prison and six years of banning policies for disrespect for the decisions of the High Representative.
For Endjeluša Morina, three decades since the signing of the Dayton Agreement, the question arises why there is still a position where Christian Schmidt is.
« Maybe it should consider whether this position is necessary, provided that it is more working on regional cooperation and ensuring that Serbia truly begins to respect BiH’s integrity. »
She says Berlin finds new partners dealing with the Balkans in that process.
« Germany and the United Kingdom work together on regional issues, talks about invention of ways to take international presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina from the permanent possibilities of Russian veto, to increase the participation of Britain.
« It could help preserve the integrity of BiH. »
Can the Berlin Process to replace EU membership?
Another legacy Angela Merkel could, through the government of Friedrich Merca, gets a new life.
European integration of the Balkan countries did not move much, although since the beginning of Russian aggression, there were ideas for Ukraine to be accelerated.
Something better in the process is Montenegro, Albania and Northern Macedonia, while Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia are increasingly removed from European integration.
Conservatives return to Germany with the idea that integrations are important, but candidates must be ready for them, but also existing members.
« Currently, the idea of concentric circles, Europe of different speeds, phase approximately, something and Friedrich Merco was talking about.
« The EU’s coalition agreement also specifies the need to reform the EU no later than the following expansion, which also can be seen as a possible pause of expansion, » says Frauke Zebas.
One of these concentric circles could be the Berlin process.
It is a diplomatic initiative from the time of the former chancellor, where the countries of the Western Balkans are interconnected by the EU, and all this support Germany, France, Great Britain, the EU.
« The Berlin process will continue and will be important as Germans and others, especially the UK.
« In combination with gradual accession, which is increasingly popular, it could be a transitional solution to full membership in the European Union – that the old members receive space to prepare for new ones, » said Morina.
The next meeting of this initiative is planned this summer in London and will be the first major international conference on which the Balkans are the central theme, and where Berlin will represent Merc and Vadeful.
Unanimous diplomacy
While Chancellor Solc and Minister’s Berbok often sent different messages abroad in the previous government, in a new cabinet for such differences should not be space.
In the past remain situations like the one when Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized Serbia for election irregularities, and Chancellor Solc only six months later partner went around Belgrade Due to the Lithium excavation project and not mentioning democratic standards.
The Chancellor and the Minister are now coming from the same party, and their party colleagues dealing with foreign policy and the Balkans, with which the BBC was contacted, they were not ready to talk about changes in foreign policy towards this part of Europe.
The Chancellor and the Head of Diplomacy will even tighter the establishment of the National Security Council, where representatives of the most important institutions would decide on key security and foreign policy issues.
« I would not be surprised that the Balkan’s issue is part of the conversation and in the National Security Council, especially bearing in the form of Germany in the region in recent years.
« Questions in the Balkans are already considered through the Prism of Security and European Security, especially from February 2022. years, » said the Morina Enordial.
Frauke Zebas says the Balkans could be found on the table of the new body and through the question of the future regulation of Europe, where Germany would want a more active role.
The coalition agreement is defined that this new body is located at the Office Office.
Commenting on his establishment, Minister Vadeful said that the Council would « lead more consistent foreign policy of Germany ».
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