What is happening between India and Pakistan?

Clashes between India and Pakistan in Kashmir province have recently escalated significantly and fears are not far in military conflict between countries. However, the conflict is not new to the needle and can be traced back decades.

According to international politician Magneu Marinósdóttir, the beginning of conflict can be traced to the time when India and Pakistan were under the control of the British Empire.

At that time, there were over 500 kingdoms, principals and states that had autonomy.

« Kashmir was a prince under the direction of Hari Singh, who was a Hindu, but the majority of the population were Muslims, » ​​says Magnea in a conversation with mbl.is.

The first armed conflict in 1947

It was then in 1947, when the British Empire resigned from India, that the country was divided into two states: India, where Hindus was in the majority, and Pakistan, where Muslims were in the majority. Those who were in power then had some choice as to which the kingdom of their royal or principal would belong to.

Magnea, on the other hand, says Hari Singh has been undecided whether Kashmir should join India or Pakistan, which led to Pakistan’s armed forces invading the province to push the unification with Pakistan.

The prince then sought the mercy of India for military support and under the auspices of the British Empire in India, Louis Mountbatten, was signed a merger agreement that made Kashmir part of India.

The Indian army was sent into the province and began with the first armed conflicts of the states. They lasted until 1949 and ended with a ceasefire with the United Nations’ involvement that encouraged a referendum on the future of the province. However, that vote has never taken place.

Got autonomy to keep the peace

After the ceasefire, Kashmir province was divided into two parts: India took over two-thirds of it and Pakistan north, but also China controls several territories at its own borders.

Says Magnea Indian part of the Kashmir region consists of a Ladahk state where the majority of the population is Buddhists, or just under 80%, and then Muslims and Hindus. The other part is the state of Christmas and Kashmir where the inhabitants are almost exclusively Muslims.

As an effort to keep the peace, the latter state received a special position under Art. Article 370. India’s Constitution, which provides for autonomy over other states and the Union Territories) India. Among other things, Jammu and Kashmir states had its own constitution, flags and criminal laws, and shared the states with the seat of the government in both capitals Srinagar and Jammu.

Signed a peace agreement in 1972

Nevertheless, another war arose between India and Pakistan for Kashmir in 1965, which ended without agreement. It was after the war in 1971, when India became an ally of Bangladesh in their freedom war against Pakistan, which ended with the East Pakistan becoming the independent state of Bangladesh in 1972, that India and Pakistan signed the so-called Simla agreement.

It provides, among other things, that the Kashmir dispute should be resolved through bilateral talks, without third parties involved, such as the United Nations.

« Since then, the dispute has largely been that Pakistan wants a referendum on the future position of Kashmir-region, as Kashmir has always argued that Kashmir should have been part of Pakistan because the majority of the population is Muslim. participation in elections there in the country and also refer to the Simla agreement that disputes over the district should be resolved through negotiations.

An Indian soldier is guarding Kashmir province.

AFP

The tension increased significantly since 2014

According to Magneu, the tension between the states increased significantly after Narendra Modi was elected Prime Minister of India in 2014. Modi leads the Indian nationalist party Bharatiya Janata, which adheres to nationalism on the basis of Hinduism.

Then the party is the political wing of the nationalism Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sang (RSS), which was created in 1925 and fought for India’s independence.

« When he becomes prime minister in 2014, he has the election promise to abolish the special position of Jammu and Kashmir. »

According to Magneu, autonomy was abolished the Jamma and Kasmir state in 2019 by repealing the Constitution’s 370th Article. In doing so, Jammu and Kashmir became a traditional Union Territory under the direct control of New Delhi, with a total of 28 states and eight relationships within India.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

AFP/Sajjad Hussain

Violations of the agreement

Magnea says the difference is that the latter is governed by the district or governor who is appointed directly by the country’s president but not elected as is the case with the states that have their own parliament and the local government.

« This is done unilaterally without consultation with the residents and without consultation with Pakistan, which is actually a violation of the Simla agreements, » says Magnea.

« Modi starts to allow people to move there and settle and evacuate sources for land purchases. He begins to disrupt this balance that prevailed. There, the majority, Muslims, are trying to change the population composition and thus weigh them.

One to two thousand Muslims murdered in Hindu’s attacks

The fear is not unnecessary in Magneu’s opinion, which points to the excluded nationalism that the Modi party stands for. She also points out that when Modi was governor of Gujarat State, Muslims were blamed for a fire that came up on a train in the state and led to the death of 58 Hindu.

Subsequently, between one to two thousand Muslims were killed in Hindu attacks. Also, about 150,000 Muslims fled after a fire was laid out of their homes and mosques. Magnea Modi says has been accused of fueling the attacks and that the case has been investigated but not considered sufficient evidence to get him sentenced.

« This is the context that the withdrawal of Jamma and Kashmir 2019 is taking place inside. »

An Indian man returns to India after Pakistan dismissed Indian citizens from the country.

AFP

The Resistance Democrats Sprett Fram 2019

Then the Magnea change has been peacefully objected and that dozens of individuals and organizations have sent a call to the Supreme Court of India to withdraw it on the basis that it was illegal. At the same time, or in October 2019, the organization The Resistance Front, or the resistance, has sprung up, but they have been responsible for the murders of the tourists in Pahalgam, Kashmir, who took place now.

Says Magnea government Modi has defined the resistance of the resistance as a terrorist organization in 2023, or the same year as the Supreme Court of India upheld the legality of the Modi decision that had been protested by a large number of people.

The resistance party is believed to be linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET), a terrorist terrorist organization in Pakistan, but Magnea says little is known about the resistance party, which is a kind of dark army with no visible leader and residence in the mountains around.

« They began to make the first attacks in 2020 and then there were rather specific targets, for example, parties related to the military, intelligence services or the Indian government in Jammu and Kashmir. »

Now, however, the organization appears to have begun to attack civilians after their team members killed 26 tourists, which is the largest death in one attack last year. 25 years in the province.

26 people were killed in Kashmir province on April 22.

AFP

Threatened to terminate the Simla Agreement

Subsequently, the tension has increased again between the states. India has announced that it intends to temporarily terminate a 1960 water agreement, which includes mutual assistance from the Himalayas in the Himalayan area. Pakistan has stated that this would be interpreted as a war operation that would be answered with full weight. Pakistan has also threatened to terminate the 1972 Simla agreement.

« It can certainly be said that with these attacks there has been a huge escalation, which has not happened for a long time. Of course, it comes out of the actions that can be attributed to 2019 and these killings that have taken place now, » says Magnea.

Both states have nuclear weapons, and Pakistan’s Infoist Minister Hanif Abbasi has warned India that the country’s nuclear weapons are not on display, saying that Pakistan’s long -range rockets, which carry nuclear bombs, were all « in India. »

When asked, Magnea does not believe that states are likely to use nuclear weapons, as such attacks were actually suicidal.

« But I do not think it is unlikely that there will be any armed conflict between India and Pakistan. »

Western states are more likely to take a position alongside India

On the response of the international community if an armed conflict was arising between the countries, Magnea says that there has been a conflict between China and India, but never between China and Pakistan. Pakistan also buys weapons from China so China would probably take a position alongside Pakistan.

However, the United States was more likely to take a position alongside India as well as other Western countries.

« Especially when you look at who the US president is today. Then he obviously has to record Modi’s cause, » says Magnea, adding:

« But of course, states will come to the scene and try to disseminate matters to prevent armed conflict. »

Finally, Magnea points out that the essence of the case is the fact that a permanent solution is still being called for the conflicts that have raged in the southern Kashmir region for decades.

« It is interesting to see how many conflicts today can be attributed to the fact that states are former colonies and the conflict stems from how things were resolved, or rather not resolved. »