What happened from the election of the Zhelyazkov cabinet

The Zhelyazkov government has been experiencing a month and a half – a time that is sufficient for preliminary evaluations of its effectiveness and its character. The mere fact that Bulgaria has acquired a regular government has a reassuring to people and they gave it an initial (fragile) credit of trust. What happened from his choice:

First balance time

1. The most important and strategic decision of the new governing was the request for a convergence report to enter Bulgaria to the euro area. With a little delay and rhetorical zigzaks, this report was requested, which is a good step and hopes that the stated goal – entering the euro area – will be realized in the beginning of 2026. In the current situation, euro area membership is not only an economic issue. It is not even as economic as a matter of security – Bulgaria must be firmly integrated into the EU because of the unknown times from a geopolitical point of view;

2. Mostly because of GERB the country has not yet adopted three relatively simple anti-corruption laws, which are the direct reason for the delay of the second tranche under the recovery and resistance plan (PV). As a result of the postponement of this legislation, 600 million euros will probably be lost irretrievably more than a year – a huge sum, which must be unambiguously recorded on the GERB account and partly to the new government. Attempts to seek justification with the engagements in the Energy Sphere under the PVs are inappropriate.

First, the three anti -corruption laws had to be adopted, regardless of what was happening in energy – they are a condition without which money cannot be released.

Secondly, GERB and their partners do not like the commitments to the Energy PB, but they do not have an alternative plan for it. If the money under the PV is not absorbed, Bulgaria will not only lose European funding, but must commit to withstand loser coal plants for years. The hopes that EU rules will be renegotiated and coal will become profitable again, at least for now they are groundless. At the very least, the development of alternative energy technologies leads to this unprofitability and the process is quite one-way. GERB's « plan » is obviously to bury our heads in the sand and to get the plants to ensure temporary government tranquility;

3. The debate on the « 18 billion hole » in the budget has taken the majority of the time and energy of governing and opposition in recent weeks. This debate was and is pointless because there was no such hole and there was no.

Due to the growth of GDP, there are many that money now, but apparently they are less than promised by GERB, and here we must put Peevski's « New Beginning » in the account. The « hole of 18 billion » is actually actually expressed in the large customer mouth, which was open in anticipation of the resumption of the familiar model of government – « Borisov -Peevski ». The new management, instead of asking their customers to have their claims, actually decided to cunning. A budget was tabled, which cut some of the biggest appetites to enter a 3% deficit and a 40% budget against GDP.

But the cunning happened in three directions. First, 40% of GDP in the new budget does not include European funding, which is practically an increase in redistribution through the state. Assen Vasilev is not guilty of this – in his time the European funds were included in the calculations as he should.

Secondly, and more importantly, additional loans will be taken – more than 6 billion, which will raise the capital of state -owned companies (beh, the development bank and more). In this way, the client appetites will be abandoned.

Third, unrealistic revenue was also provided in the budget, such as an increase of 30% of VAT proceeds. Ie GERB also try to leave the euro-agne whole and feed their client wolf. Even the whole pack. This is, of course, a wrong strategy that has nothing to do with their request for « consolidation » of the budget. True, the silly thesis of the « 18 billion hole » disappeared, but it is replaced by a real multi-billion-dollar customer extravaganza;

4. The government began its mandate in a very comfortable situation from a purely political point of view. Four parties entered it (GERB, BSP, ITN and MRF-DPS)S There was also one formation in opposition – « We continue the change » – « Democratic Bulgaria » (PP -DB). The paradox here was that the program of the PP-DB was largely coincided with that of the governing, because the DB participated in the writing of the management agreement and the development of its priorities. There were also two parties-« Revival » and « New Beginning » (and to some extent « Sword »), which were rather an opposition to the opposition from PP-H. Indeed, Peevski and Kostadinov spoke much more against PP-DB than against Borisov and GERB. This does not automatically make them part of the management, but still shows that their status is special.

This is largely valid at the moment, but the Revival of the Renaissance against the euro and their protest breaks have changed the picture. It is clear that the Renaissance wants to use conscious violence – in parliament and beyond to mobilize their electorate and become a second strength. It is also clear that GERB can no longer play the theater of silent support for the « opposition opposition ». This is spoiling the comfort of GERB and we will see how the potential conflict between them and « Revival » will develop. If in Germany or Austria the far-right had entered the government, Borisov would have been more flexible to the « colleagues » than the « Revival ». But, alas, its flexibility will need to be removed;

5. Appointments to the regulators, the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Judicial Council will actually be the real test of Delyan Peevski and a « New Beginning » in the government. The delay in the appointments of the deputy ministers is actually a curtsey to Peevski – this is how the status quo is preserved, which is very convenient for him. Considered candidates for the CPC and other regulators – Rosen Karadimov in particular – were publicly criticized by PP -DB and MRF -DPS as nominations that were pleased with Peevski. The MRF-DPS was upset by the whole situation and began to threaten to withdraw their support. In the short term, this is emerging as a risk to the Government Zhelyazkov. It is not excluded that Borisov succumbs to pressure from a « new beginning », to try to guarantee the European member by June, and to cause new elections afterwards.

The crisis has not been overcome

In summary, it must be said that unfortunately the crisis with fragile and unstable governments has not been overcome. We have a rather complex coalition that tries to achieve strategically important goals and to satisfy the client appetites that it creates and ignites itself. However, the model of governments of Borisov cannot be returned. Times are different and GERB's political opponents are much stronger. In fact, GERB threw all their energy against PP-DB and thus managed to weaken their most useful potential partner. At the same time, they refuse to break with the tail of their corruption heritage – the rejection of extremely elementary legislation with some anti -corruption potential is the most shocking demonstration of this refusal. And the complicated relationship with Peevski, who is not in government, and the decisions are in his favor, are still the same. What is new is that the playing of GERB with « Revival » does not seem to continue as before. But let's see.

Every government is based on how much people think it works for the benefit of common interest. The Zhelyazkov Government is still in the early phase and enjoys the ownership due. But the clouds in front of it are on the horizon and it is good for the new ruling to realize the problems they have already generated.