What does NRC think | The price of a hundred days of Trump runs on the day

It is common in economic times that economic institutions have their prognoses accompanied by scenarios in which it goes worse or better than expected. The economy is extra unpredictable under those circumstances, and that requires a broader view than just a central projection of growth, inflation and other economic quantities. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) did this during the Kredietcrisis of 2008-2009, and the COVID Pandemie of 2020. To the prognoses for the world economy of the IMF, which ended its half-yearly meeting on Saturday, is always awaited.

For many other institutions and banks, the predictions of the fund are a benchmark. But this time the IMF turned its practice 180 degrees. The scenarios were the most important. The central prediction was relegated to only a necessary ‘reference’ to which those scenarios could be tested. Because nothing was certain.

The world economy has become so unpredictable, after the chaotic start of Donald Trump, who celebrated his first hundred days as American President on Tuesday. In particular, this applies to the introduction by the White House of Tower Hogs on goods introduced by America three weeks ago. A week later they were partly postponed by three months. But a minimum of 10 percent was maintained for almost the entire world. With the exception of, for example, China, which looks forward to 145 percent – and immediately returned by almost the same percentage. For example, there are more exceptions, or reversed exceptions. See the trade with Canada and Mexico, the direct neighboring countries.

The uncertainty appeared on the financial markets, where American government loans dropped, the dollar came under pressure and the stock prices dived down. The market for government loans in particular is the lubricating oil for the international financial system. Sowing chaos is playing with fire.

The world economy is very difficult to navigate due to all these radical events. No wonder that only in various scenarios can be thought. This also applies to companies and investors, who do not know where they stand.

The current unpredictability of the most powerful country in the world applies not only the world economy, but also the administrative structure on which this rest. Sister organizations IMF and the World Bank are an integral part of this. The fear is that Trump America will withdraw, just like from World Health Organization WHO or Trade Organization WTO. Scott Bessent, the American Minister of Finance, reassured the IMF last week that it will not happen. But his conditions that the IMF does less to climate policy and social policy speak volumes.

The American threat to withdraws remains, because it is very difficult to see the goals of IMF and World Bank from the major problems that the planet is facing. Whether it is climatically or demographically. Project 2025, the think tank-blue pressure that can be seen behind a lot of Trumps policy, is based on an American farewell of the two organizations. This way the game continues with uncertainty and unpredictability. And will not only suffer the American, but also global prosperity. The price of a hundred days of Trump rises by the day.

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