What depths of the short patience of the short patience?

Volodymyr Zelensky again calls on the US and other G7 countries to impose stricter sanctions on Russia and to impose real pressures that could lead to real negotiations. However, Trump’s patience seems to be iron: he continues to react only in words, not by action. It is speculated that Mr Trump may not see the point in the war in Eastern Europe at all, but he does not know how to retreat from previous promises.

Is it possible to expect meaningful negotiations without actual sanctions that actually exhaust? Maybe Trump finally to go to Istanbul to call Vladimir Putin to sit at the negotiating table? What do Putin have to do to make Mr Trump’s patience end?

The News Radio show is a conversation with former Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis.

– Do you see some minimum diplomatic value, obviously without the exchange of soldiers, in negotiations of this kind?

– It seems to me, even in your previous shows, we have said that the states, if they think they can achieve more military means than they stop war, seek diplomatic means, they do so. And here is a good example of Russia to confirm this axioms. I would only compare Ukraine with Russia, because we have to remember – if Russia stops war, the war is over if Ukraine stops war, Ukraine will end. And here is the biggest problem and the biggest difference.

Another big difference in negotiations – Ukraine actually has a plan to end the war, that is to stop battles, to declare a 30 -day ceasefire, to stop on current contact, or as someone says the front, lines, and start negotiations from those occupied territories. Of course, by taking responsibility for suspension of actions and accepting that those territories are now under control in Russia, but that they are also unrecognized by diplomatic channels to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia, having felt its economic situation is getting worse, oil prices are falling, oil production, which is increased by Arab countries, reduces Russia’s ability to sell something. And it also sees that Europe is becoming more and more involved in Ukraine by understanding that importance to its own, and it compensates for partly the US, say, unstable behavior in relation to this war and Ukraine in general. Trying to just maneuver, trying to make time, split Europe with America. Also participates in the theater of one viewer, where the performance is staged by demonstrating a wish, driving to Istanbul for the second time. And what did we see in Istanbul a couple of days ago, what did we hear on Monday? That ultimatum, which was 2022. On March 20, in Istanbul, practically the same attitudes were brought to Istanbul on Monday. This is what we can talk about if the ultimatum offered instead of serious negotiations, ceasefire, etc., saying that this is a very good perspective in some way to end the war. Although they don’t say that right now. He came, talked about the return of the prisoners, about the exchange of soldiers, the return and exchange of the soldiers who died and left. Well, and the Ukrainians tried to achieve peace, but not at any cost.

– Your saying is that the same provisions are transported, but Russia’s economic situation is deteriorating. These would probably not be the same attitude if they were really scared that their economic situation was really the bad.

– The better you are in this situation, the maybe you will take the US to your side. After all, we see a constant process when Trump, who is trying to decide the war, stop it, he does it all at the expense of Ukraine. And for Russia it is perfectly suitable. She sees that Ukraine is under pressure, Ukraine is accused, Putin is as innocent – Trump says that Zelensky had not to start a war with no cards in his hands. Those nonsense and the Americans themselves are tired of listening, as with Putin for the third time the two -week deadline he gave to Putin for the third time.

And the White House was asked if you know that you, Mr President, say, « Trump Always Chickens Out ». It is a negative saying and Mr Trump and is the person who manipulates, avoids any collision and dives into the bushes but does not solve problems. History is unfortunately very useless, but for Europe, this story leads to conclusions that it is necessary to take things more and more, and it is nice to see that they are doing so. We have seen both in Vilnius these days, and at the NATO Summit in Hague at the end of June, it will also be a great deal of talk about it.

Antanas Valionis. Photo by P. Peleckis / BNS

-a 12-year-old child ego-some call Trump ego. It should seem that at some point that ego should be damaged. I wonder how you would see. What do Putin have to do so for Mr Trump to take and hit the sanctions he has talked about, and Zelensky is constantly calling for, and the same EU constantly calls on the US to do something? And finally, by pressure, Putin was brought to the negotiating table.

– Not just ego there. There are also thick books written about his mental state, his physical condition. Of course, no psychiatrists contribute directly to this, as ethics prevents the patient from writing a diagnosis. Be that as it may, it is not just an ego, it is something more. And I do not think that it may be that Trump would change his behavior after the two weeks that he gave to Putin a few days ago. But there is a good document, of course, it is questionable. 80 or even 81 Senator’s supported sanctions against Russia, which Lindsey Graham has already prepared, and apparently only is waiting for Mr Trump’s signal, as he himself is involved in next year’s intermediate elections, has to run for the Senate. Like many congressions or senators whose fate in the election depends on the wave of Mr Trump’s finger.

So there is a good document to punish Russia. In some places there are references. I have no idea that 500 percent Rates can help someone and whether someone can actually take them. We saw an example that 140 percent The tariffs were placed in Mr Trump China and after a few days they were canceled as it is an absolute trade stop.

For China, the defeat of Ukraine would not be a disaster, but China would be a disaster of Russia’s defeat.

One thing is the issue of Ukraine, the other thing is NATO’s fate. What did we hear in Vilnius? After all, we heard 5 percent in Vilnius, demanded by Mr Trump. In fact, I think it is a good time to accept them and they are needed. But not everyone is ready, not everyone is determined and there are those who say, « We can’t. » There are also those who say, « Okay, 5, but 3,5 are defense and 1.5 are for infrastructure. » In any case, any of these two – 5 or 1.5 plus 3.5 percent. – I think there is a very good option if NATO succeeds. If, in fact, the American involvement in NATO is that it pays for Trump to say, for his defense, Europeans themselves, when buying, as he thinks, American weapons. But the European interest is partially bought, and partially reforming its defense industry, expanding its capabilities. So that there will be no easy answers in Hague.

– There is such a hypothesis – Mr Trump will not be watered by Russia because we do not know about the shadow business agreements of Mr Trump and Putin. Could you see that it can become a reality?

– Trump’s political loss is increasing and he will have something to do with it. Senators are going to meetings, already conducting an election campaign that takes place all the time, especially in Congress, where every two years are elected. When I observe those meetings with excerpts from American television stations, people see that people are very angry. Republicans often « get to the coat » – for Ukraine, for Canada, for Greenland. The proposal to connect Canada as 51 states or buy Greenland, even by force, it did not rule out this opportunity, whether to stop supporting Ukraine and withdraw from the American people’s outrage. About 80 percent American, according to sociological research, is better than the president himself understands who the aggressor is and what to do in this situation so that America remains a leader.

– Ukrainian officials came to Washington on Tuesday with Andriy Jermak, Head of Presidential Office, and met with politicians from the US. Interpreted here and the fact that the US -Chinese relations here mean a lot, because the US is now trying to solve its problems with China, it is important to initially have a very clear position if you want to solve those problems, how you see Russia in this place. And it is here that the US becomes a very important player in Ukraine. Do you see clear lines, how can such a meeting be helped even through the prism of Chinese -US relations?

– For China, the defeat of Ukraine would not be a disaster, but China would be a disaster of Russia’s defeat, then there would be bigger problems. It constantly supports Russia, as we see, not only sends drones, but also specialists who advise drone production and help to produce drones themselves. There are many things in that complicated game and everyone looks at their own interests. It takes an impression that Trump takes into account the interests of the US, but of his own interests in this case. I am thinking, primarily in the US, the understanding of politics that pushes America to give up the role of a democratic world leader. In fact, large political and all kinds of dividends in America begin to decline and America begins to realize that it is not very possible to abandon the participation in global policy, to refuse to participate in the War Ukraine, because in that case, it is well seen that Europe is moving forward, occupying that place and actually becoming a leader of this democratic world.

– Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan Once again, he presses the leaders of all states to meet in Istanbul and finally make real negotiations. Mr Trump reacts that he would again consider such an invitation. As you know, there were already those considerations. The only President of Ukraine appears in such negotiations, but neither Putin nor Trump arrive. Why and would you see that someone can change at the end of June, as both a summit in the Hague and G7 will have already taken place in Canada? Maybe we will finally see Putin, V. Zelenski and D. Trump at the table?

– If only Russia realizes that military measures have already been exhausted and other diplomatic measures need to be sought, then it will happen. Otherwise, the game. RT Erdogan, in whose state has demonstrations where opposition leaders are sitting in prison, popularity falling, economics, inflation is very high, see the strengthening of its authority. He occupied positions very well, established in this negotiating process. Not the Vatican, as was proposed, not Switzerland, which was talked about. It happened that this negotiating process of Ukraine and Russia would take place in Istanbul if it actually begins. RT Erdogan’s authority is rising in the world and its regional state game is increasingly gaining power and becoming stronger.

I was a year ago at a conference in Ankara. I think that alongside European politics, they are more of their regional state’s position through the Turk world, through their influence on Syria. Sometimes it seemed to me that European Security and Foreign Policy could become an obstacle to Turkey.

Returning to Ukraine, they have achieved really great results as mediators, I think, in this situation, maximum. And will not go out of hand.

– The US comes up with sanctions, huge customs duties. In Istanbul, would we probably see Putin right away?

– I think yes. Whether Putin or serious negotiating positions. Because now no one saw that memorandum, brought the same conditions of capitulation to Ukraine. The Ukrainians politely listened, talked about the exchange of soldiers and left the hall after an hour. If you need to sit at the table, then we sit. If you need to see that Russia is non -constructive, then you see it perfectly.