View of the trading of Yuan on the stock exchange in March
In March 2025, the activity of the Yuan exchange trading on the Moscow Exchange decreased compared to the previous month, but the average daily volume consistently exceeded 100 billion rubles. At the beginning of the month, this was accompanied by a decrease in the course of the Chinese currency against the background of reduced demand from the importers, in the second quarter the trend has prerequisites for the turn. The influence of the new US duties on the dynamics of Yuan trade will be indirect, experts believe.
In March 2025, the intensity of trading in the exchange market decreased slightly compared to more active February. According to Kommersant, based on the data of the market survey, according to the results of the last month, the total amount of trading of the Yuan on the Moscow Exchange with the supply of “tomorrow” amounted to 2.15 trillion rubles, which is 8% lower than the level of the previous month. Given the larger number of trading sessions, the average daily indicator fell more significant – by 12%, but it remained higher than the level of 100 billion rubles.
In general, the activity of trading by the Chinese currency remains significantly higher than the indicators of recent months.
Unlike previous periods, the activity of market participants was quite evenly distributed within a month. Usually at the beginning of the month the volumes of trading are minimal. As the tax period approaches, the volume of bidding increased. In March 2025, the main turn was for the first three weeks (on average more than 500 billion rubles per week), while at the end of the month it hardly exceeded 460 billion rubles.
This displacement of activity was caused by earlier sales of currency exporters against the background of confident strengthening of the ruble. In particular, on March 18, the Yuan exchange rate fell to 11.14 rubles/CNY, a minimum from June 20, 2024. “Fear of rapid and positive development of the geopolitical agenda (after the first conversation of the presidents of Russia and the USA. « Kommersant ») Could lead to an earlier and uniform sale of currency in March, ”said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
Denis Popov, managing expert of the Center for Analytics and Expertise of PSB does not exclude that a decrease in the exchange on the exchange at the end of March could be associated with the migration of foreign exchange turnover on the over -the -term segment. According to the Bank of Russia, already at the end of last year, about 70% of the non -cash circulation of the currency of friendly countries was carried out through the off -off segment. At the same time, in the last two weeks, the Yuan course remained in the range of 11.35–11.65 rubles/CNY.
In the second quarter, analysts do not exclude the seasonal growth of imports. But at the same time, the supply of currency large exporters, which begin preparations for dividend payments, will also grow. “The rigidity of monetary conditions will restrain the increase in the activity of importers after a seasonal decline at the beginning of the year. As a result, the demand for currency, including taking into account the approach of the vacation season, will still grow up, but gradually, ”said Denis Popov.
Customs duties introduced by the Donald Trump administration for goods from 185 countries in the short term will not affect the ruble exchange rate, since they do not directly affect goods from Russia, analysts say.
Of great importance for the domestic market is the development of the situation around Ukraine. “Despite the participants in the market for the duration and complexity of the negotiating negotiations between Russia and the United States, the positive vector of the geopolitical agenda and the growing expectations of the transition of the Central Bank to mitigate the DCS can periodically fuel speculative demand for ruble assets, ensuring local bursts of strengthening the ruble,” Denis Popov notes.
At the same time, it will be difficult to completely ignore the “new tariffs” of the White House and possible retaliatory steps from the US trading partners. As noted by the chief analyst of the Sovcombank Mikhail Vasiliev, the new duties are a significant negative factor for world trade, global economic growth and consumption of raw materials, including Russian oil, gas, metals, etc. “World economic growth can slow down for 1-2 p. In China, the EU and other countries, ”the expert notes. In the meantime, in the basic scenario in the second quarter, he lays out a small increase in the dollar (up to 93 rubles./$) And Yuan (up to 12.8 rubles/CNY).
