Unicredit, Banco Bpm and the sentences: from Europe to Tar everything can change for Orcel and Chestnut

It is hot and in the Milanese City there are even higher temperatures than in the rest of the country. In the week that starts the forecasts today, the mercury column for decades in the Milanese quadrilateral of finance has been giving the column.
In Piazzetta Cuccia this morning was to be celebrated the green light at OPS on Banca Generali, which was subsequently awaited by the evaluation on the basis of an offer that has not yet been defined. The I refer less than twenty -four from the beginning of the assembly assembly It further raises the financial temperature. On the morning, however, in the same location, Alberto Nagel will host the annual CEO Conferencewhich will also participate Andrea OrcelGuide of Unicredit and a great protagonist of this season of the bank Risiko, where he has so far sown a lot and collected little.

European vision

Thursday 19th However, it is the day set byEuropean antitrust for the communication of one’s judgment on the use of the Golden Power by the Italian government in the OPS launched by Unicredit on Banco BPM. It could be a moment of turning point in what it is, already now, The longest ops in the history of Italian finance. However, the menu of the week could be enriched, always on the Unicredit Opes front on the counter, by an intervention by the Italian government regarding the use of Golden Powerespecially as regards the theme of national security. Preventive action compared to the communications of European antitrust? It will be to see. Of course The climate is warming up And from here to Wednesday 23 July, the date scheduled for the conclusion of the exchange offer, the novelties in the Unicredit house will not fail. If the vision of the European antitrust on the use of the veto power – this in essence is the Golden Power – by the Italian government on the operation, the July 9th It will be the Tar of Lazio who will express himself with a sentence regarding the request of Unicredit, obviously contrary to the use of these procedures by the public. These are the two key dates that will decide the short -term future of Unicredit: June 19, July 9th.

Modified trajectories

If Unicredit’s requests were accepted, 14 days would remain to close the OPS positively. A sufficient time, given that this type of operations are always decided in the last week. In Piazza Gae Aulenti there is a moderate optimismeven if nobody wants to admit it. But in this regard, some light, but not trivial changes in the Public statements by Andrea Orcel.
At the end of Mayin Milan, on the occasion of National Fabi Councilthe most numerous banking union, Orcel expressed himself clearly: under these conditions of Golden Power Let’s not go onin essence, he said, reserving a second tour in the autumn in the light of the judgments of the TAR, Council of State and European authorities.
Last weekin Berlin, in a convention organized by Goldman SachsOrcel himself has the trajectory modified passing from « nothing is done » to « There is 20 percent of possibilities that you do ». The difference is not trivial, even if at some it may seem the reading of the coffee funds and leads to a question: What has changed in these three weeks? What openings have there been? We will find out in the next few days, but when the Unicredit CEO stresses that the Golden Power « It should be clarified », making himself potentially available to support the requests of politics, Orcel does nothing but keep the door open.

Dialogues

The dialogue with the MEF of these months will have to bring something to something and Unicredit is ready to slip. It is obvious that too stringent procedures could lead to bureaucratic absurdes (the case, mentioned, of the mortgage that in Russia by law the bank cannot close early, under penalty of criminal proceedings), as it is obvious that too many operational details risk compromising the sustainability of the measure.

Italian sentences

Last week the Lazio Tar pronounced against Banco BPM’s appeal which contested the provision of extension of the terms of the OPS issued by Consob. In the end, little changed, about ten days that do not change the substance of things. That is, that, Until now, Unicredit’s offer has been snubbed by the marketgiven that the overall adhesions are evaluable percentagely as a Telephone prefix. Everything will decide, as always, in the last week, has been said, but such a parcel adhesion has been seen. On this he certainly weighs and weighs the regulatory framework of reference, which is going to clarify and thevery close offer of Unicredit.
Banco BPM did not fail to detect what, in his opinion, are the weaknesses of the Orcel offensive: first of all aDiscount offer compared to stock exchange priceswhich keeps the vast majority of shareholders away. Then, the potential that the group of Piazza Meda can express by remaining alone, with a performance of the action near 11 percent. Above all, on a systemic level, a potential reduction in the credit offer and the absence of an industrial plan that draws the possible profile of the two combined entities.
After seven months of studies and stalls we are therefore to: the dialogue with the MEF, the ruling of the European Antitrustust on the famous article 21 and that of the Lazio TAR will offer a different regulatory reference framework in the next few days. At that moment the OPS will enter the heart, or will be definitively in the archive, at least until autumn.