Unicredit and the OPS on Banco Bpm, the government fixes of the stakes: Orcel takes time

«The offer is approved with requirements whose merit is not clear. Unicredit It will take the time necessary to evaluate the feasibility and impact of the prescriptions on the company, on its shareholders and the operation of BUTby relating, if necessary, with the competent authorities ». It is with this stringed note that the bank led by Andrea Orcellate on Friday evening, replied to obligations imposed by the government in aggregation with Banco BPMif the public exchange of 14 billion was successful. All impositions that lawyers and managers around Orcel are studying to understand if they are manageable or not.

The hallway on Russia

On the Russia The hallway has been started for some time: the cross border exhibition « will go to zero in September », had promised the CEO in the assembly: we are talking about activities for 8 billion before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, dropped to 300 million and which generated losses for 11% of the value. More in detail The crossborder activity dropped by 94% In two years while i local deposits dropped 89%in the same period, Net Local Loans of 86%. It should therefore not be a problem.
As for the counters to be sold after the wedding, in the order of 183, it seems that a commitment not to sell the Bench branches in Lombardytoday equal to 492. You will have to work on regions where the market share of the two banks together exceeds 20%: Sicily, Lazio, Piedmont, Veneto, Val d’Aosta and Molise. According to what appears to Corriere della Sera It is likely that Consob ask Unicredit to make public the document drawn up by theGolden Power Office Of Palazzo Chigi Before the next opening of the markets, being price-sensitive. Highly probable then that in the next few days the voices of the ECB and of Bankitaliawho had given the go -ahead to the wedding and who now see the Italian government approving it after a long gestation, but with demanding caveat. There European Commission In recent days he had asked the Meloni executive clarification precisely on the use of special powers also in relation to Unicreded-Bpm.

The times of the operation

The timing of the OPS, even after the news that arrived on Good Friday, has well -marked stages. The offer will start on April 28 to end on June 23rd. Orcel has a week to decide. The banker has always reiterated that the operation must have value for Unicredit e Opa on soul He raised in him not a few doubts. On the basis of the information provided by Banco BPM, buy 90% of the asset management without the Danish Compromise would have a negative impact on the patrimonial solidity of 240 Basic Points for the former Popularthen bringing it the CET1 Ratio from 15.05% to 12.65%, under the critical threshold of 13%; And this without considering the Regulatory Headwinds of Basel 4 estimated in the update of the plan equal to 94 basis points and which could already in the first quarter to the indicator below 12%.

Not to mention that the desk presents a employment-deposit ratio is particularly high (126% against an average of 103%). That is, it is using a greater amount of customer deposits to finance loans. Orcel has asked for more than one occasion to provide details on the bench optimization measures to reach the minimum level of 13% of Cet1 Ratio in June.