Ukraine in the trap of Trump’s Eastern Policy
In his latest book, « Tragic Mind, » American strategist Robert Kaplan notes that « Understanding world events starts with geographical maps, but ends with Shakespeare. » However, it is unclear how looking at the cards or reading Shakespeare can help us explain the striking fact that today Russia, America and Germany seem to exchange roles.
The willingness of US President Donald Trump to recognize the annexation of Crimea, not to allow Ukraine’s accession to NATO, and to cancel Moscow sanctions on Moscow seems to be an American version of « Eastern Politics » – the cheer policy led by West Germany to its eastern neighbor. All this happens at a time when Berlin begins rearmament through major investment in its defense sector, and Europe hopes to become a serious military force.
| Is the exchange between America and Germany real, or is it like a dressing in Shakespeare’s play that ends at its region? |
However, it should be borne in mind that the majority of Americans do not approve of the way Trump is dealing with the war in Ukraine, and a small part of the Germans are ready to fight for their country. Is it possible for Trump’s peaceful proposal to be more than « Minsk -3 » – an unclear agreement enveloped in distrust and therefore doomed to failure?
Liberal Europe should learn some historical lessons in order to survive
We have almost no reason to doubt that Trump is sincere in his desire to end the war. It greatly underestimates Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, but it is a fact that a prolonged war would lead the country to a demographic catastrophe. He may even be right in claiming that advocates for more sanctions against Russia and to send more Kiev weapons underestimate the increasing danger of a nuclear war.
| However, Trump is wrong in his judgment that war in Ukraine is primarily a territorial dispute that has little importance outside Europe. The downplaying of the geostrategic importance of the conflict is the main change in its policy relative to that of the previous administration. |
It is not unthinkable to assume that Biden had also put pressure on Ukraine to accept territorial discounts, it could bring peace or even long -term freezing of the conflict. Biden would probably agree with Trump and that the return of Crimea to the foreseeable future is at least unrealistic. And let’s not forget that Biden never really planned to invite Ukraine to NATO.
How do liberal democracies have to respond to the Trump world
However, there is one significant difference: Biden would not accept the annexation of Crimea as a price for cessation of fire. Other leaders also realize that preserving the national pride of Ukraine is something of the utmost importance, and that its sense of moral victory is vital for both the survival of the country and for any future European security architecture. If he had read more Shakespeare (I would suggest starting with historical plays), Trump would probably understand that although Ukraine’s humiliation was the fastest (and the cheapest) way to stop fighting, it would still not bring peace.
| Pride and sacrifice are the bricks that build nations. |
Praising Putin for Putin, accepting his narrative of the war and presenting the peace agreement as a gift to celebrate Victory Day in Moscow on May 9, Trump hopes to make Russia compromise.
But the latest signals coming from Moscow show that Putin is not looking for a compromise – he is looking for victory. And even if Trump can stop the fighting, the temporary cessation of fire in the absence of security guarantees risks igniting internal conflict in Ukraine, suicide for Kiev and its European allies. This could cause a new migration wave that can endanger the political stability of European societies and nourish tensions between Member States. Which would further destroy the already shaky trust of Europeans in America’s security guarantees.
Europe should abduct Trump’s revolutionary plans for the world
It is plausible to claim that American « Eastern Policy » is the result of Washington’s changing geopolitical priorities and Trump’s fierce improvisations. Certainly this policy is more related to China than Europe.
| The new partnership between Moscow and Washington, which has arisen because of Ukraine, aims to weaken Russia’s dependence on Beijing and to provide Russian support for the US strategy in the Middle East and in the Arctic, not to guarantee a steady future for Kiev. |
But whether understanding events is a consequence of looking at the cards, followed by formulating grand strategies, or the result of reading Shakespeare’s plays and reflections on human weaknesses and mistakes, the current situation is certainly a sign of Europe. The historical period, which began with the unification of Germany, ends with the division of Ukraine.
