Turkey is changing Europe – Diepresse.com

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was for many politicians in the EU Lang a Buhmann – today the Turkish President is being courted by former critics in Europe. The new German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, calls Erdoğan’s Türkiye an « extremely valuable, important important NATO-Partner ”, which should be connected to Europe. Russia’s war against Ukraine, the doubts about the reliability of the United States in security policy and the growing importance of Ankara in the Middle East, turkey as allies of Europeans. However, there are narrow limits.

The EU will only be able to solve its problems with a recording of Türkiye, says Erdoğan. « The earlier the EU sees it, the better, » he said recently. Turkey could be a rescue ring for Europe. In reality, nobody in the EU or Turkey does not believe in accession in the foreseeable future, even Erdoğan. The 71-year-old head of state wants to use the geopolitical weight of his country in order to progress in the event of issues below the threshold of the question of accession. Ankara penetrates Visa’s releases for Turks when traveling to Europe, the inclusion of the Turkish armaments industry in European procurement programs and on a modernization of the customs union with the EU, which could give the Turkish economy new impetus.

On the European side, a rapprochement with Turkey has been indicated for months. « The Atlantic is getting wider and the Mediterranean is getting narrower, » said a European diplomat after Trump’s election victory. EU representatives in Ankara are working on an acceleration of the visa procedures for Turks. They praise the role of Türkiye as a goalkeeper in Europe in refugee policy, their broker role in the Ukraine War and Erdoğan’s negotiations with the detained PKK-Id boss Abdullah Öcalan about a peaceful settlement of the Kurdish conflict.

German arms exports

Europe and Turkey are also progressing on arms issues. Günter Seufert, founding director of the Center for Applied Turkish Studies (Cats) at the Foundation for science and politics In Berlin, writes in a current analysis that Germany has given up his resistance to arms exports for the Turkish Navy. The argument in Berlin is that it is unacceptable that Turkish warships could not prevail against the Russian Navy in the Black Sea due to German export restrictions. Seufert quoted a conversation partner in the German Ministry of Defense with the words: « In NATO, Turkey is a problematic partner – outside of NATO it would be a nightmare. »

Security policy, Turkey can offer Europeans a lot. The Turkish army is the second largest of NATO according to the US armed forces, is based on a booming armaments industry and has combat experience. Ankara is already exporting drones, planes, ships and other armaments to Ukraine and more than half a dozen NATO allies, especially in Eastern Europe. The cooperation of Turkey in a European security structure for the deterrent of Russia « is an absolute must, » says Howard Eissensstat, Turkey expert at the ST-Lawrence university in the USA and at the Institute for Turkey Studies at the University of Stockholm.

Ankara is fundamentally ready to participate in a European peacekeeper in Ukraine, but also maintains close relationships with Russia. Representatives of the two warring parties in mid -May in Istanbul for the first peace negotiations have been made up for three years; They also negotiated on the Bosphorus in 2022. Russia proposed a continuation of the talks in Turkey.

Important Middle East player

Turkey also expands its influence in the Middle East. Erdoğan is one of the most important international partners of the Syrian transition president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Ankara is also involved in the Libya conflict and strengthens the commitment in Africa. Erdoğan calls it “a foreign policy of 360 degrees”.

This concept excludes a submission of Turkish politics under EU requirements, as Turkey expert Eisensstat says: « In the long term, the goals of Turkish foreign policy are not limited to Europe, » he told the « press ». « Ankara sees Europe as a relatively small part of a future multipolar world. »

This means that Erdoğan does not always want to be considerate of Europe. The memory of his hesitation in the NATO recording of Finland and Sweden is still fresh, says Eissenstat. The unresolved Cyprus conflict also stands in the way. Greece and Cyprus recently complained about Turkish resistance against the project of a Untersee Strom cable between the two EU countries in the eastern Mediterranean.

There is also Erdoğan’s autocratic government style. In March he had the presidential candidate and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu thrown into prison. Since then, dozens of other Imamoğlu employees have been arrested with flimsy reasons. Critics accuse Erdoğan that he wanted to take Imamoğlu out of the game before he could be dangerous in three years in the next presidential election.

Problematic authoritarianism

According to Erdoğan critics in Turkey, the EU dampened their criticism of Imamoğlus imprisonment in order not to annoy the president. Nevertheless, two months after the mayor was arrested, it is clear that Turkey cannot initially expect great progress in the question of accession. « You want to become an EU member, but then you arrest one of the most important representatives of the opposition, » said the Turkey rapporteur of the EU Parliament, Nacho Sanchez Amor, a few days ago when visiting Ankara.

From Sanchez Amor’s point of view, the Imamoğlu case is currently the biggest obstacle in the Turkish EU accession process. The rapporteur named the influence of Erdoğan’s government on the Turkish judiciary as an important problem: the president can determine the composition of the body responsible for the appointment and replacement of judges and prosecutors. In political procedures such as against Imamoğlu, the Turkish judiciary often becomes an instrument of the government. Erdoğan does not show that he wants to change that. Sanchez Amor therefore does not expect that the Turkish accession process will win again in the foreseeable future.