Trump’s customs today or what will the world be like tomorrow?

The dynamics of unpredictability have become a reality in international business. Trump’s Sudden but very clear and targeted decisions on the introduction of customs duties, the strengthening of the US economy and the slogan « to make America again a lot », the world trade so far has been well -imposed. Ever since the Bretton-Wood system, the most developed countries have been working for monetary and currency stability, as free trade, the flow of people, services, products, capital. The European Union has achieved this in its internal market. We are now returning decades ago, to the period of protectionism and the game of interest. Not only economic, but also political, geostrategic. Above all, stressful tests for internationally operating companies that will have to think boldly their delivery routes, place on international markets and price policy. Above all, we will all have to defend our competitiveness, sovereignty, autonomy.

The complexity of operations in international business is the daily given, and the restrictions, which occur in the way we experience by Trump’s measures, require thorough strategic reflection, resilience, determination based on arguments, and at the same time the flexibility of commercial Union, countries and internationally operating companies. Global strategies and placement on markets are no longer free, the market (i) are becoming limited accessible, and thus target consumers. And so do you – we – we quickly pay the price; It will be higher for many products and inflation pressures as well. Interestingly, everything is spinning more than not around products, production, especially manufacturing, energy products. From steel, aluminum, which, in the previous Trump’s term, did not give long -term positive effects, on the contrary; to drinks, food, cars … but not service. These are in excess of US exports to Europe. Trump is not talking about it. Therefore, it will be more interesting to observe how the EU negotiates to restrict technological, digital, service giants who sell many of their services in the EU markets. And which, let’s be honest, need them, because in many areas of development in Europe we have stalled. Above all, we need consumers.

But where is the EU actually in this game? If China responded immediately and sooner and soon received retaliation of customs duties, the EU has just started with the first answers. Waiting is not good, but the recklessness is not. The EU has its market power and is an important market for US companies. The US market is also an important export market for the EU. In 2024, the EU exported EUR 531.6 billion in products and imported 333.4 billion euros from the US; Compared to 2023, exports increased by 5.5 percent and imports by 4 percent. The opposite is true for services, so the whole change is almost equal. Five key areas of exports accounted for almost 50 percent of the EU’s total exports in the US; These are medical and pharmaceutical products, transport vehicles, machinery and equipment, electrical appliances and parts, household and specialized machines and devices for some industries. Also, five areas are key to the EU on the import page; Oil and energy products, medical and pharmaceuticals, machinery and equipment, gas, transport equipment (Eurostat, 2025).

That is why the EU must respond quickly and effectively with measures, in activities and products, since we are in interest. The question is how much and how to negotiate, or whether it is not more sensible to set the first limit of retaliatory measures as soon as possible or to release the restrictions on the entry of those products that are important to the EU. The basis for this is a thorough review and reflection of the entire EU international exchange and appropriate calculations, as negotiations below can be « more expensive » than countermeasures, especially because of all the unpredictability of decision -making on the US side. And the EU cannot afford unpredictability, at least not in the way Trump does. Above all, it is important to know what an increase in customs duties and other measures can cause or trigger not only today, but also tomorrow and where the EU negotiation borders are to maintain its competitiveness – and sovereignty. Now is not the time for partiality of interests, but a common, related appearance to the US. It is also about protecting our development, because customs or other restrictions on international exchange do not bring positive effects, perhaps partially short, not in the long run.

Customs challenge can also be an opportunity for the EU to strategically point to other major markets, develop or revive other supplier routes, agree on strategic agreements in new regions and other trade partners, and focus on the development of services and technologies in which we are imported on the US. It has all the options for this. In the internal market, especially by promoting investments, especially in activities with a high multiplier, the development of technologies and services; The United States has recently been losing precisely in investment work, development sources, science and development; Therefore, all this must be encouraged by the EU today and in the long run, as this will only maintain competitiveness. Since we are also lagging behind in productivity behind global superpowers, this is a moment and an opportunity to devote funds to accelerated development and not regulation, bureaucratization, limiting ourselves. For this EU, it has resources in its many programs and we can draw on Member States. How effective and successful depends primarily on ourselves.

« Don’t pay customs, come, invest in the US market, » says Trump. It forgets that these processes do not run quickly, but that competitiveness works every day – in the consumer’s purchase decisions. It will be, at least on US soil, as well as in all the markets of 60 countries that have been encountered by customs, still felt it. As companies and employees will feel it. Non -concentration means loss of market share, pressure on costs, jobs. No one wants that. As well as trade war as a sandbox. Planet and people are too sensitive substance, and economies. The stock exchanges are already echoing fluctuations, capital does not know where to go, businesses are waiting, but at the same time they know that they will have to look for new supplies, consider price policy and management of cost pressure, conservation of customers, customers. Strategically « count » and find new ways to enter the markets.

Nothing is the same as it has been in international trade and global exchange so far. Even if the game calms down, the foundations are loosened. Is a new world trade order? We will look for the answer to this question in the dynamics of decision -making every day. This is not good, however, as development and progress need stability and peace. Even our planet and people, each of us. Or, as the famous environmental photographer Nick Brandt said, what we can do to make the planet nicer and people will live better: « Vote. » Vote.  » But we never know what our voice (in fact) will bring.

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Dr. Maja Zalaznik, Faculty of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Head of the Graduate Program International Business.

The article is the opinion of the author and does not necessarily express the views of the editorial board.