Trump-Putin and Romania negotiations

A Spanish proverb says that In front of the powerful it is good to have a little patience. This is the case of small countries that depend on the interests of large and powerful countries. This is the case of Romanian political and opinion leaders. At present, we are facing both real and potential international geopolitical and negotiations for a new Europe have already started in Saudi Arabia. Only the senders of America, led by the new president Donald Trump, and Russia, led by the same president Vladimir Putin, participate in negotiations. The first is a businessman who seeks to impose his vision internationally. The second is an old chess player who wants to strengthen his country’s position in Europe. The stake of the game is the redefinition of spheres of interest and the risk of failure could be a war with catastrophic potential.

Both leaders are anti-globalists, but each for their own reasons and both have problems. The Russian leader is a nationalist and wants to expand the sphere of influence of the Russian. President Trump is nourishing anti-globalist feelings because the big international magnators use the power of America to expand their own businesses. In his opinion, the United States has only to lose a global system led by individuals not understood by citizens to a country. Trump also rejects a historical postulate: All the great powers reach a certain peak, then decline. He wants to restore America, Make America Great Againbut it is hit by a new and hard world reality.

The world has changed radically in recent decades; Other countries have advanced and America a little paired. In this sense, Trump is looking for the causes of the interior decline through which the country goes outside. These causes are multiple, sometimes real and sometimes they are incorrectly identified, and the solutions envisaged by the president are either inapplicable or risky and would trigger unwanted reactions. I think of the customs rates that the White House has already announced. I consider America’s clearly displayed antagonism to China. And I think with concern about Washington’s neglect of Europe. At this point I reiterate an idea: Europe without the United States loses its political and military weight; America without Europe risks losing world hegemony. Otherwise, Russia is said to be an undeveloped country that possesses a large nuclear arsenal. America is a developed and well-armed country nuclear, but without Europe it would be alone in an increasingly anti-American world. And reach the current situation.

Trump has committed to stop the war in Ukraine while the European Union and the United Kingdom will continue to continue it. To this end they have announced that they will create a fund of $ 800 millions for re -winning. Where will the Union get this money when the social-economic situation of Europe is already precarious and the future is uncertain? No wonder Washington has engaged in direct negotiations with Moscow by neglecting Europe. And what does the Trump administration hope to get? In my opinion, I hope to stop the war in Ukraine; He pursues certain economic advantages both in Ukraine and in Russia wants to reset the European geopolitical configuration and probably wants to break Russia from China and attract Moscow to the Western sphere.

Somehow the scenarios of the Paris peace negotiations are repeated after the two world wars, but with the differences in the era. After the first war he also took into account the wishes of the small countries affected by the great conflict. After the second war, the decisions were made by the four winning powers. Only America and Russia participate in the current Saudi Arabia. If Washington and Moscow come to an agreement, they will communicate and apply the verdict, practically without consultations with other countries. The others will have to comply. And here I will present a scenario that I think about and which will directly affect Romania. However, the negotiations will not be easy at all. But what do I follow the two great protagonists concretely?

From my perspective, President Trump follows first and foremost benefits and secondly he has to put his mark on history and remain the leader who has managed to avoid World War. President Putin aims to ensure his regional domination. Both can earn something, and Ukraine would become the big loser. On the territorial level, Putin will hold Crimea and, with small touches, the occupied regions of southeast Ukraine. He will also insist that the future Ukraine will become neutral. I also believe that Moscow will ask that Eastern European countries, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, will close any foreign military bases on their territories. I am also convinced that negotiations will establish certain political clauses and provide territorial changes that will affect several countries. And we reach our country.

My instinct as a geopolitical analyst tells me that Russia will allow Bessarabia to unite with Romania, but with certain conditions. However, I do not understand if it will allow the reunion with the country of Bessarabia and of the Romanian historical territories or only of the current Republic of Moldova. Some points are delicate and negotiable. And why would Moscow accept this? Because on the one hand it would repair the Romanian-Russian relationships a little and also needs a new improvement in which history enters. On the other hand, Russia being Russia could continue to exert some pressures on the Romanian government through the Russian ethnicity in Bessarabia. And Russia would have an advantage: they would leave some territorial issues between Romania and Ukraine and Moscow would be in the position of international referee.

The Bucharest government should analyze the situation and prepare very carefully for such a scenario. The servile and changeable game of our leaders between Brussels and Washington could leave Romania on the outside. On the other hand, the unnecessary challenge of Russia even these days is a childish attitude that serves nothing. Until yesterday, the Romanian influencers were in front of America and now they jumped over the horse and a vehement criticism. Will they change their attitude towards Russia if the direction of the wind changes? There is no room for amateurism in politics …

Meanwhile, the responsible Romanians in the United States have contacted the State Department, Congress and White House and intervened in defending the legitimate rights of Romania! In this regard, they sent President Trump a detailed memorandum accompanied by the following message:

Mr. President, American Romanians appreciate the fact that you are trying to restore peace in Europe. However, we consider it very important that the peace negotiations will cancel the provisions of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact regarding Romania. Under your presidency Romania and Ukraine could negotiate a treaty to benefit from both both countries and the United States. As American citizens, we are prepared with all our knowledge and possibilities to contribute to the recovery of a historical insult …

Nicolae Dima, March 27, 2025 (Day of the Union of Bessarabia by country).