Trump loses in Romania, but can still win in Poland

The pro-European Nicusor then is the surprising winner of the Romanian presidential election. The liberal mayor of Bucharest had 54 percent of the votes on Sunday around midnight – with almost all votes.

That result was unexpectedly in the already unprecedented Romanian presidential elections. The earlier presidential elections in November, won by the ultranationalist Calin Georgescu, were canceled for possible Russian influence. His successor, George Simion, received no less than 41 percent of the votes during the first round of these presidential elections and seemed to be on the way to an easy election profit.

But the mathematician, who participated in the elections as an independent candidate, managed to mobilize many Romanians in the last two weeks. He is probably due to the record rise of 65 percent of voters – the highest turnout since 2000.

With that, Romania opts for a pro-European, liberal president, who also speaks out against the established parties. In his active political life, then fully committed to corruption and for the preservation of greenery in the city. In Romania there is a lot of dissatisfaction with corruption, poverty and the negligence of the established parties to do something about it.

The fact that the independent Dan and Simion, leader of the right-old Aur party, achieved the second round of the presidential elections was a clear protest voice against the Liberals (PNL) and Social Democrats (PSD) who have been in power in Romania for years.

Although, according to the counts, around midnight, Simion received a million votes than than, he still proclaimed himself the winner of the elections. He disputes the result and called on his supporters to take to the street on Monday. With that, Simion follows the line of his example Donald Trump, who never recognized his loss of the presidency of Joe Biden in 2020 and claimed that there was election fraud.

Simion active in the past circles of football hooligans is very critical of the European Union and against Romanian support for Ukraine. His unexpected loss will lead to relief in Brussels, where there was feared for a third European teasing spirit after Hungary and Slovakia. With Nicusor as president, Brussels and Ukraine can continue to count on support from Romania, which is an important NATO member because of the many military bases in the country.

The Trump effect

Simion, who previously argued for the reunification of Romania with Moldova, held a Trumpist campaign in which he turned Trumps slogan into ‘Make Romania Great Again’. Earlier, JD Vance spoke firmly about the canceled elections, which were « a shame » and « undemocratic », according to the American vice president.

But that help from the other side of the ocean did not seem to help. The Romanian voter follows the German and Canadian. In those countries, Trumpism led to earlier

Parliamentary elections this year to a counter -reaction. The AfD in Germany could not cash in the support of Elon Musk and Trumps supporters in election profit and in Canada the conservatives lost surprisingly, partly due to the aversion to the party leader who was seen as an image of Trump.

But the Trump card has not been finished yet. In Poland, where the first round of the presidential election was held on Sunday, the candidate of the National-Conservative PIS party, historian Karol Nawocki, tried to gain popularity, fame and weight with a visit to Trump in the White House in recent weeks.

His visit received less media attention than hoped, because of an apartment scandal that came to light on the same weekend. In one of his apartments, Nawrocki turned out to be an elderly man with a disability – in exchange for informal care, he could buy that apartment cheaper. Journalists, however, discovered that that care was not forthcoming. But photos with an American president or a healthcare scandal have little effect on the electorate in Poland.

In the polarized country, PIS and the party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk (KO) have been making the service for decades. Both parties can always count on about 30 percent of the electorate in recent years.

That also became apparent on Sunday evening after the appearance of the first exit poll. Tusk’s candidate, Rafal Trzaskowski, received 31 percent of the votes and Nawrocki finished second with 29 percent. These two candidates will compete against each other on 1 June in the second round of the presidential elections. Just like in Romania, the battle for presidency between the liberal mayor of the capital – Trzaskowski has been mayor of Warsaw since 2018 – and an admirer of Trump.

Polish battle

The first election round was a test for the policy of the coalition of Donald Tusk, which consists of three parties and came to power at the end of 2023. After eight ruling years of PIS (2015-2023), Tusk promised recovery of the independent constitutional state, relaxation of the de facto ban on abortion and more climate measures. But so far, many reforms have come across the coalition or the president’s veto. The current president, Andrzej Duda, a piss-loyalist, stands in the way of plans. Trzaskowski would support the government’s reform policy.

But with this result it will be difficult for the current coalition of Tusk to win a majority in the second round of the presidential election. The four candidates who support this coalition and participated in the first round, according to the ExitPoll, received less than 45 percent of the votes.

Even more striking is the high number of votes for the extreme right -wing candidates. The anti-establishment candidate Slawomir Mentzen of the radical-right Konfederacja received 15 percent of the votes. His former party colleague Grzegorz Braun, who is openly anti-Semitic, anti-European and anti-LHBTI, was the big surprise of the evening by more than 6 percent of the votes. The voters of Mentzen and Braun are expected to vote for Nawrocki earlier in the second round. According to this exit poll, that means that PIS candidate Nawocki can count on a narrow majority of votes.

But it is not that far yet. Nawrocki and Trzaskowski still have two weeks to win votes. Nawrocki’s challenge lies in obtaining the voices of the

Extreme right -wing voter, who often stayed at home in earlier elections and finished with the duop oil in Polish politics. Trzaskowski in particular has to mobilize young people and women. They came to the polls en masse at the end of 2023, when a record rise of 74 percent of the person entitled to vote voted out of the government.

If Trzaskowski is unable to reclaim the disappointed voter and loses the second round, then the Tusk government awaits an almost impossible task to continue the reforms because of the president’s veto. A fall from the government and new parliamentary elections are then not excluded.

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