Trump duties: What are the climate experts afraid

The overthrow of the world economy by Donald Trump has raised fears that the action for the climate It could be a victim of the trade war.

In the summer of 2024, economic experts warned that the multitude of duties could cause a global economic downturn, with extensive consequences for investors – including those behind the green energy projects needed to achieve climate goals.

Fears of a prolonged global downturn have also dropped oil and gas prices, making pollution cheaper and more difficult to justify investment in pure alternatives, such as electric vehicles and low -emissions of carbon dioxide emissions.

But the most important of the concerns is Trump’s decision to impose the most aggressive trade duties against China – the world’s largest manufacturer of clean energy technologies – which threatens to strangle green investment in the US, the world’s second largest carbon pollutant.

Trump’s duties will cause a big blow to climate technology

The US is expected to be left behind the rest of the world in the development of clean energy technologies, as they will cut off their access to cheap clean energy technologies in China.

This is a new blow to the US green energy developers, which are still squeezed by the Trump government to overturn the green motives of the Biden era

Leslie Abrahams, Deputy Director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, told the Guardianthat duties are likely to prevent the development of net energy in the US and pushing the country to the sidelines of the world market.

In particular, they are expected to raise the price of clean energy growth, because to date the US is largely dependent on the introduction of clean energy technologies. « And not just in the imports of the final goods. Even the construction we make in the United States is based on imported components, « she said.

The US government’s goal of developing its manufacturing base by opening new factories could make these components available in the domestic market, but it may take time.

It will also have significant costs, because the materials usually imported for the manufacture of these plants – cement, steel, aluminum – will also be subject to duties, Abrahams said.

Investors’ reaction

« At the same time, there are wider, global economic impacts that can make access to cheap capital funds, » he added.

Investors who had previously shown interest in the US under the Green Government of Biden are likely to hesitate to the White House aggressive anti-green messages

Abrahams said this would mean a weaker mood for investment in the development of green projects in all the US, as well as the research and development of pure early stage technologies of the future. This is likely to have long -term impact on the US position on the global green energy market, which means that « we will assign part of our potential market share abroad, » Abrahams added.

On the contrary, countries such as China are likely to divert their sales for net energy from the US to other countries wishing to develop green energy, Abrahams said.

« So, on the one hand, this should help to accelerate the adoption of clean energy in these countries, which is good for broadcasts, but for the US, this is a future market share we give, » he said.

« Pure energy is unstoppable, with or without Trump »

It is important to distinguish between the US and the rest of the world, according to Kingsmil Bond, a strategic analyst of the energy Thinktank Ember.

« The more the US is cut off from the rest of the world, the more the rest of the world will move on with things and the US will be left behind. This is a tragedy for the US Clean Energy Industry, but for everyone else there are opportunities, « he said.

The analysis of the climate campaign group 350.org He found that despite increasing costs and falling green investment in the US, Trump’s trade war would not affect energy transition and renewable energy sources worldwide.

He said the US is already « just a footnote, not a world player » in the match to end the use of fossil fuels. Only 4% of China’s clean technology exports go to the US, he said in a commercial sector where sales volume increased by about 30% last year.

« Trump’s duties will not slow down the global energy transition – they will only hurt ordinary people, especially Americans, » said Andreas Sieber, a 350.org manager.

« The transition to renewable energy is unstoppable, with or without him. Its latest move hardly affects the growing net energy market, but it will isolate the US and increase the costs for US consumers, ”he added.

Dhara Vyas, chief executive of Energy UK, the British Trade Organization, said: « The certainty has always been what investors say they need. The United Kingdom is regarded as a stable country with a stable government, but now we have to double the certainty we give to investors. « 

« Investors like the certainty, » Bond agreed. « But they also like growth and opportunities, so there is some confidence that they will continue to invest funds in the field. »

‘The US still matters’

Although the slowdown in green investment can be largely limited to the US, this continues to raise concerns about global climate progress, according to Marina Domingues, head of the new sources of consultants Rystad Energy.

« The US is a huge country of broadcasting. Thus, what the US is doing is still of great importance to the global energy transition and the way we calculate CO2, « she said.

The US is the second most polluting country in the world, behind China, which produces almost three times the carbon dioxide emissions from China. But US green retreat comes at a time when the country was planning to significantly increase its domestic energy demand.

After years of relatively stable energy demand, Rystad predicts an increase in US power consumption by 10% from the outbreak of artificial intelligence centers.

The economy is also likely to require more energy to fuel domestic production as imports from China decline.

What are experts afraid of?

In the absence of a growing energy industry, this energy is likely to come from fossil fuels, which means increasing climate emissions. The United States is expected to use the abundance of their shale natural gas, but plan to use more carbon in the future.

On the same week that Trump defined his duties, he signed four executive decrees aimed at preventing the US from gradually abolishing carbon, something that 350.org activists described « abuse of power ».

Anne Jellema, executive of the organization, said: « The organization is responsible for the protection of human rights: » President Trump’s latest attempt to supply carbon in the US is a dangerous fantasy that puts our health and our health. «