Trump duties: What are 23 Greek products at risk according to National Bank
At the target of Trump duties there will be 23 products exported by our country and which they keep in USA A steady export presence, cumulative exports of more than € 10 cm, and high dependence (with the US absorbing more than 10% of their exports).
These products, which are largely integrated into the food, construction and electrical industries, the US has been a major driving force over the last six years, covering an important part of the export rise in the 2019-2024 period (10%-70%), refers to a study of the National Bank’s Financial Analysis Directorate.
In particular:
Olives and olive oil
In the food industry with the highest exports in the US (€ 3.2 billion cumulative in 2019-2024, covering 7% of food exports) 9 vulnerable products are found based on the above criteria. The main ones are olives and olive oil, with cumulative exports from € 1 billion each in six years to the US (and 20-30%report).
It is noted that the above exports of olive oil take into account estimated indirect flows to the US (of € 0.7 billion) via Italy-Spania (which absorb 70% of Greek exports, utilizing it in their own production of standard olive oil). Other high -exposure foods in the US are wine (17%) and fruits such as peaches (processed) kiwi and figs (10%).
In other sectors, products such as cement (the US absorbs ½ of exports, which reached € 0.6 billion in six years), marbles (18%), electrical equipment such as resistors and circuits (with 80% exposure and 30% respectively) as well as other consumer products (e.g.
Search for new shopping
Therefore, to the extent that the above products are replaced, they are confronted with a double challenge, as emphasized. They may be called upon to redirect a significant portion of their exports to new markets and even in particularly pressing conditions (as their competitors will try), creating downward pressure and upward supply costs.
In the study of the National Bank’s Economic Analysis Directorate, it is noted that as international trade enters a time of intense challenges focusing on US tariff policy, the relatively small exposure to Greek exports to the US market shifts the interest of analysts to the expected indirect influences.
However, through a more detailed approach attempted in the new issue of the « Business Trend of Business » studies of the National Bank’s Economic Analysis Directorate, there are potentially significant direct effects on individual products that have found US market support over the last six years.
Export rise
The analysis highlights the recent performance of Greek exports (outside the oil), where a 6.7% rise is found in deflated terms in the November 2024-January 2025, continuing the recovery tendency launched in July (July 20). Indeed, as Greek exports were stronger than European competition, led to a strengthening of the Greek share in EU exports to 0.56%, from 0.53% in the same period last year. Deepening the trimester performance:
At the sectors level, the majority was upward (in defruded terms), with higher potential being detected in foods (+18% on defruded terms) that covered ⅔ of the rise (with ¼ resulting from olive oil, which recovered from a decline of previous year). Metals (+8%) and chemicals (+18%) also moved dynamically, contributing 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.
In terms of export destinations, as the performance of basic European markets of Western Europe and the Balkans (⅗ Greek exports) remain sluggish in the last 1½ years, exporters have sought to compensate for losses in alternative markets. In addition to the steady supports from Eastern Europe and the Middle East markets (which covered ¾ of the rise), North America’s contribution was crucial – which is now being called into question due to the unprecedented US duty policy. 
Deliver by the US market, it is found to have emerged in a dynamic market for Greek products in the last six years (2019-2024), absorbing 5.3% of Greek exports in 2024 (from 4.5% in 2019) and contributing 7% of the rise to the corresponding period.
Despite the above momentum, the total share of the US in Greek exports remains relatively low compared to the European (as the US absorbs 20% of European exports), resulting in analysts’ interest mainly on potentially higher indirect duties, through our financial strikes. Indicatively, Germany and Italy (absorbing more than 1/5 of Greek exports), directing more than 10% of their exports to the United States.
You can see the whole study here
