Trump duties, here is the account paid by Europe: 35% collapsed export (but Italy stops at 10%)

After the words, the exchanges of accusations, the duties, the counter-tooth, the retreats and the new joints forward, the facts arrive. The concrete consequences of the commercial wars open by Donald Trump they have just landed In the United States trade tables – in value – that the US census Bureau has just published. And just a look to grasp the great remediation of the world economy brought with it by the rates followed by the « Liberation Day ».

Mutual duties

The announcement of the « mutual » duties is on April 2, so that is the month to look at to see the effects. The American commercial deficit is almost halved (less 46%) compared to that of the previous month, the result of a collapse of about 70 billion of imports compared to March and an increase of about eight billion exports. In particular, the impact on China is very strong. In January, the last month before the new bilateral duties, the United States had imported goods from the People’s Republic assets for over 41 billion dollars, But in April the invoice is just 25 billion: a 39% collapse compared to the last period of the previous customs regime and 20%, always in April 2025, compared to the same month of a year ago.

The impact on exchanges

The impact on the exchanges between the first two economies of the world – alone almost half of the global turnover – is therefore Vasto. Even for Europe, the effect is visible, although in Italy it arrives a little caught. The export of the European Union to the United States collapses by 35% in April compared to March, the last month before the « mutual » dutiesalthough it is practically unchanged compared to April a year ago. The effects for Germany are more problematic. The collapse of sales of German products in the United States from the « mutual » duties (as far as 10% are reduced, except for steel, aluminum and above all cars taxed at 25% during the last two months) is severe: less 16% in April than in March and above all less 8.6% than in April 2024. It is likely that the greater weight of the duties is downloading to the German car sector, of which Italy is direct supplier.

The effects on Made in Italy

Even for the « made in Italy » the effects of the duties begin to feel. But the great earthquake of the Trumpian rates comes in a slightly different way, compared to other countries. The fall of exports is 10% in April compared to March, that is, compared to before the « liberation day », while it is 4.4% compared to April 2024.

The relationship with Italy

It is not a little, for the second foreign market of « made in Italy ». But this is the other data of the medal. Italy had been invested less than other large exporting economies from the previous wavethat of preventive purchases by American importers before the curtain of the duties fall. In the first three months of the year, with the return of Trump to the White House, the commercial deficit of the United States compared to Italy had increased by 18% precisely because of the race of US retailers to fill the warehouses before the rates were triggered.

US imports

But the same effect had been much wider in many other parts of the world. Always in the period January-Marzo, The increase in American commercial deficit had been 69% with the rest of the world and even almost 100% (a doubling) with the European Union. Also for this reason, American imports have slowed more abruptly elsewhere than in Italy, not only for the highest customs barriers.

The American commercial deficit

The paradox is that all this great remediation has made about 70 billion dollars rise – do not go down – the American commercial deficit in the first four months of 2025, compared to 2024. Among not much, however, the negative effects of the braking of imports from the American part will be seen on the exporting economies. Nobody knows how to say what level the duties of Trump will be in the future, therefore predicting their effects is impossible. But the great destabilization has already occurred. And now it is seen in the official data of the real economy.