Trump approaches Putin, China gets angry

Today Radio Free Europe writes, among other things, that « China's chief diplomat said that a » peace window « is opening between a rapid -pace diplomacy over the end of the Ukraine war and the steps taken by Washington to normalize relations with Moscow.

Experts and former officials believe that the possibility of a recurrence between Russian President Vladimir Putin and American Donald Trump is also causing anger in China.

« The Chinese have predicted this since Trump was elected and signaled that he wanted to finish the war in Ukraine quickly, » Dennis Wilder, who was a senior White House adviser for China during the presidency of George W. Bush, told Radio.

« While complete approach may not happen, they are concerned because if Trump removes sanctions on Russia, then Moscow's dependence on China will decrease. »

One of the features of Chinese leader's foreign policy, Xi Jinping, has been the growing strategic partnership with Putin, which has been strengthened since Moscow began large -scale occupation of Ukraine in February 2022.

Beijing has supported the Russian economy through increasing trade and purchasing energy, helping the Kremlin's fight with key goods supply, while both XI and Putin have found a common ground in terms of their desire to challenge the West and the United States.

And the fear that all of this could be destroyed by a new type of US-Russian reports, which would arise from negotiating to end the war in Ukraine-as it was raised days ago during talks in Saudi Arabia-is real for Beijing.

Wilder said there have been conversations with « very high Chinese officials » since Trump's election in November, who have expressed concern over a possible resettlement of US-Russian reports.

He said they used the phrase « Only Trump Going to Moscow », using a historic reference to the visit of former US President Richard Nixon in Beijing in 1972, when he challenged the precedent and sought to approach China to exploit its separation from the Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War. Attempts to create divisions between Beijing and Moscow and approaching Russia by some analysts have been described as a « tactic like Nixon ».

« In the same way like Nixon with politics against China, they see Trump as someone who is in a unique position to go against the current nature of US politics to Russia and can even travel to Moscow, » Wilder said. « This is not to say that the Chinese think the Russians will distract relations, but their strong proximity they have today can weaken. »

What is Washington's strategy?

It remains to be seen what results will be the Trump administration's engagement, but after a telephone conversation this month with Putin, the latest US-Russian talks in Riyadh and divisions with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over peace talks, the White House is drawing up a new course in relation to Moscow and the war in Ukraine.

« We seem to be witnesses not to a reinstatement, but of a reorganization of US-Russian relations, » Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst in the international group of crisis, told RFE / Urus. « In this sense, the war in Ukraine is not a call to resist Russian aggression, but an obstacle to a closer cooperation between Washington and Moscow. »

For Beijing, this development comes with many worrisome hypotheses, including allowing Washington to increase the military presence in the Pacific and leave the most geopolitically exposed China in the event of a crisis with Taiwan, the island of self -governing that Beijing claims to belong.

« I think China would prefer to see a weak Russia and even the continuation of the Ukraine war would be for the benefit of Beijing, as it would shift the US-free focus, » Sari Arho Havren, associate of the United Service Institute of London, told Radio Free Europe.

The Trump administration has made it clear that she sees managing the long -standing rivalry with China as the main objective of its foreign policy and may aim to deportate regions such as Europe and the Middle East in order to increase pressure on Beijing in Asia.

Senior US officials have also suggested with the latest statements that the breakdown of the China-Russian partnership may be part of the motivation to normalize relations with Moscow.

After talks in Riyadh, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the opportunity for « geopolitical and economic cooperation » in the future between Washington and Moscow was one of the highlights it was discussed.

A few days earlier, at the Munich Security Conference, Keith Kellogg, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said the US aims to « force » Putin to take actions « not comfortable » to take Moscow, Iran and North Korea relations.

In an interview on February 14 for The Wall Street Journal, US Vice President JD Vance said Washington is preparing to restore relations with Beijing, following an agreement on Ukraine, as a move to end Russia's isolation and its dependence on China since the war began.

« It is not in Putin's interest to be a little brother in a coalition with China, » Vance said.

Attempts to disrupt the partnership between the two countries that have also been on the radar of Trump administration officials at one time.

Robert O'Brien, who served as Trump National Security Advisor from 2019-2021, said last year interview that the White House had discussed the strategy during his term and that reaching a Ukraine war agreement is a key step in launching this process.

« Until we solve the Ukrainian situation, we will have no other option to access Russia, » he told Wire China in June last year.

Can Trump divide China and Russia?

Arho Havren said the possibility for the US to cause a formal division between Beijing and Moscow is small, especially as long as Putin is in office, given the relations he has built with Xina.

But even new cracks between the two powers can lead to the weakening of the bond between Moscow and Beijing and can have a preventive effect on China, especially if it decides to use military force to take Taiwan, something that politicians increasingly warn that it is possible.

« Even if their connections remain strong, historically there has been disbelief between them and this disbelief will not disappear, » she said.

But while the Trump administration diplomacy is moving at a dizzying pace, it is still in its early stages and many more developments can occur.