Travel for the US, less reservations and more empty planes: so the ticket price also falls by 60%

The political climate, the different news of rejected tourists and the fear of ending up in the cell after the customs checks – as happened to some western – continue to discourage the Europeans and to dent reservations on the transatlantic connections also in April. So much to force the airlines to run for cover and in some cases to bring down the prices of the tickets by offering an unthinkable figures. Like the 433 euros – taxes included – to fly from Milan to New York (and return), without stopovers, starting a week later and in the middle of the long bridge that goes from Easter to May 1st.

Evolution

This is what emerges from the analysis that the Courier He carried out about ten sections between Italy and the US by monitoring the trend trend every day and for each carrier, in the last two months. Numbers that reveal curious aspects. For example: those who have purchased a Napoli-New York trip now paid 60% less than those who booked that same flight a month earlier. If in most cases the curves of the prices of the connections studied are quite flat, in others these descend more you approach the departure.

Anomaly

« In a normal context, as people book and the date of departure then approaches the curve rises so that the plane and the remaining seats are filled with more », explain to the Courier Two experts from Revenue Management on behalf of as many European carriers. « But these are obviously not normal times – the two experts continue -. People are not buying as before and as expected and the rates must be retouched, lowering them significantly, to return to being sufficiently attractive and encourage them to travel ». « And not even the weakness of the dollar – they emphasize – seems to be charming them ».

Visitors in March

In the first three months of this year, 2.48 million tourists from Western Europe visited the US, according to the data of the US border police. 7% less than the same period of 2024. But it is in March that the number has dropped significantly, with a reduction of 17.2% of European travelers compared to the third month of the year before. It should be noted that the data is affected by the fact that Easter fell in March last year, while this year in April therefore the values ​​are not perfectly comparable.

The survey

For this the Courier He studied the trend trend in a given period of time and in the peak weeks of spring. And what emerges is, day after day, the attempt of the Aviolinee operating on flights between Italy and the USA to fill the planes as complicated by geopolitics as much as possible. According to a survey by Skift Research, travelers from different countries claim to be less likely to visit the United States due to the political environment and the Trump administration policies.

The connections

Let’s take the direct flight Milan-New York with travel dates 23-28 April of this year. Two months ago the lowest price, in economy, was available for 711 euros (always round trip, taxes included). Even with some oscillations – symptom of difficulties in selling connections – the rate gradually rises, a month later, up to 839 euros. From there, however, his Data begins, so much so that already seven days after the peak the ticket drops to 708 euros. Next, up to the 433 euro in the last few hours.

The gap with the peak

The Rome-Washington section during the analysis period touches its peak a month ago (1,213 euros), but four weeks after the flight it is sold less than half (564 euros). So also for other transatlantic routes. In general to be « rewarded » were those who booked these last few days. Those who purchased a Rome-Boston flight, for example, paid 28% less than its maximum price in the two months of analysis, while savings were 37% for those who decided to travel from Rome to Los Angeles.

The first signs

Virgin Atlantic explained that there are the first signs of a slowdown in demand on transatlantic flights. While the CEO of Air France-Klm, Ben Smith, said that the company was forced to reduce the rates in the economic class on the connections between Europe and the USA due to a « light weakness » of the market. By lowering the price of tickets it becomes easier to fill the plane, but the profit margins are significantly reduced.

« Weak question »

« The question on transatlantic flights is more » soft « than last year, » he confirms to Courier Peter Gerber, CEO of Condor. « But we must also remind us that 2024 was a record period for the vectors on this segment. » « There are some first signs in the industry on the fact that the North America market could be weaker, » Joerg Eberhart, CEO of Ita Airways, told a conference by Uiltrasporti. « We don’t have clear indicators on this, until the end of June what we see is positive. »

Seen beyond ocean

Officially the two main US carriers – Delta Air Lines and United Airlines – in their quarterly have reported that their international activities have not yet been affected by the slowing of growth and the volatility of the market linked to the commercial war started by the United States with most countries of the world. But the analysis of the rates by the Courier It shows that at least on flights departing from Italy with destination the US also had to reduce prices in the last few days.

The differences

This situation, however, affects in particular European carriers for two reasons. The first: it is precisely the residents of the Old Continent who have reduced the movements to the USA. The second: the Americans continue to go abroad as before. And while the first, the Europeans, book above all with their « local » vectors – thus going to greatly affect revenues and profits -, the second (the Americans) fly with national aviolines. And so what the users use forgiven from the reduction of Europeans recover it from the US side. But European carriers cannot do the same.

The advantages of Americans

Speaking with analysts, the president of Delta, Glen Hauenstein, said that about 80% of the sales of international flights of the company comes from buyers originating in the United States. « And one of the reasons why we privilege flights in the United States is that the rates we set are significantly higher than the rest of the world, » he underlined. For Delta, therefore, to be affected is only part of 20% of international sales.

The balance

On the same wavelength also the commercial director of United Airlines, Andrew Nocella, who indicated « modest drops in the volumes of passengers with non -US origin for the second quarter, with traffic coming from Europe down 6% compared to the previous year ». The volumes of passengers with Canadian origin in the second quarter also decreased by 9% on an annual basis. « But the question originated in the United States has more than compensated these reductions, » he added.