To reflect

In times that run it is very risky to make predictions. Even if they are about the country’s political future, just 12 months after elections.

On the eve of the day of reflection (an originality of our democracy, but that becomes very useful in elections to the annual rhythm), I leave some scenarios for voters who will spend this Saturday to read the sunrise.

1 – The most likely scenario, at least according to the published polls, is that everything is more or less the same as it was when Montenegro and AD came to power by the minimum margin. Some details, or larger, can make a difference. Consolidating the arrival at 18%, or even above that, only a center block agreement can allow the red lines to keep. Win the AD or win the PS, Montenegro or Pedro Nuno Santos have only one way, either if they understand each other, or will be responsible for the implosion of the system. Knowing that this is a solution hated by social democrats and socialists, most of them is that any kind of agreement is short duration, with the consequent beheading of leaders who play it.

2 – In a less pessimistic scenario, that published polls also allow us to trace, AD and the liberal initiative can elect more deputies than the whole left. Not being an absolute majority scenario, this is the least bad result that can be environmental, taking into account the enormous fragmentation of Parliament. If this result happens, Montenegro and Rui Rocha must be understood. Whatever it costs, neither can escape the responsibility that the electorate gave them. Perhaps the final before taking more radical options. If they resist international and national pressure, they can rule the four years of the legislature, and may even save the political system as we know it. It is not easy, it is demanding, but it is possible.

3 – The third scenario, the most unlikely, is that on the right, without the arrival, or left, the sum of deputies dictate an absolute majority. Because it is the hardest, this is also the least complicated scenario for the next four years. The risks that our democracy runs are of molding not to make it difficult to understand and, at the same time, there is a sensation in the air that this is the last opportunity to make a good impression. Despite the ideological differences and the mistakes of the past, PSD, PS and their respective leaders, they will find a way to be up to the challenge that is required. The more it is not, because they know that either they kill or die and the human being always has the instinct of survival to the skin.

4 – Having or not having elections in a year depends, to a large extent, an unknown: What role will the next President of the Republic play? The Prime Minister who will leave next Sunday’s elections will depend much on a protagonist who is not yet known who he is. The current president says he will only give possession to a government that can pass the government program. It says this, because it knows that the program presented at the Assembly of the Republic has not to be voted. Even if the PCP, as it did in the previous legislature, put the vote, the rational, is that the remaining parties will let the winning party program pass. Also because everyone knows that there can be no elections until the choice of the next president. All added, Marcelo pretends that he is still president, but in reality it is no longer, and the decision about a political Berbicacho that may leave inheritance, is for his successor. This is why in January 2026 we can have the most important presidential elections in our democratic history.

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