Time of choices
1. Europe today marks a historic milestone: the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration. Next 75 years, Europe has accumulated extraordinary achievements. Peace, invaluable and often underestimated, has been a constant in the Union’s territory. In addition, the continent has registered one of the longest periods of economic growth, and social welfare in the world. Europe has become a global example of balance between economic development and social cohesion, leading in defense of human rights, and environmental sustainability.
We are the largest economic block in the world, with an incomparable domestic market with over 40 global trade agreements. This is where the quality of life is higher, where social protection, access to health, work rights are guaranteed.
But 75 years later, the European project is in a crossroads. The invasion of Ukraine through Russia revived the ghosts of the past. Trump administration represents an isolationist view, causing decades of a strategic euro-atlantic alliance.
Internally, the dangers are not smaller. Populism gains ground in several Member States, seeking to destroy Europe inside, attacking the law’s pillars daily, feeding dangerous and dystopian illusions.
Given this, it is imperative to reaffirm: never as today the European project has made so much sense and needs so much to be deepened. For this, we need brave and ambitious protagonists, as Schuman went. People who do not hesitate to the first difficulties and clearly claim that, to resolve current blocks, Europe needs to value and assume its federal vocation.
All Democrats should be concerned about the present and future of Europe and be active in building the way for the coming years. This includes making a reflection on the state of the country in the last year.
2. It is official: the Portuguese economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter of 2025 – it has not happened since 2014 (excluding the pandemic), according to INE. At the same time, the government sent Brussels the progress report where it reviews GDP growth to 2025, now pointing to 2.4% (compared to the 2.1% provided for in the OE). The Public Finance Council has already classified this projection as « not prudent ». Miranda Sarmento stated that the contraction of GDP « should not surprise much ». Indeed, the trick of IRS source retention that compromised this year’s reimbursements, helped mask the last quarter of 2024, whose growth was deliberately inflated, but as it turns out without any sustainability.
What really surprises, in addition to the disadvantage of the government, is Portugal again diverge from the average growth of the EU and the eurozone, to return to economic contraction and yet see the government insist on a political narrative that compromises the country’s credibility. The optimistic estimate of growth, which supports AD’s electoral scenario, contrasts with the reality and common sense of the Portuguese. It is a repeat offender with the same protagonists. Even more serious: AD economic results anticipate difficult times for families and businesses. When the economy retreats, they also retreat the revenues that supported the budget surplus, but permanent expenses continue. What follows is predictable: deficits and new sacrifices. After eight years of convergence with the EU, AD’s path is irresponsible. This is also what is at stake on May 18th. What ambition do we want for Portugal: continue to grow above the European average, as in recent years, or stagnate?
