Thus Trump « sabotaged » the American economy in 100 days: GDP at -0.3%, the import inflated by the duties burned 5% of the GDP

What we know, so far, is that the return of Donald Trump At the White House he captured the attention of billions of people and accelerated the times of millions of companies. He did it in a way that changed perceptions, altered expectations, conditioned and – potentially – laid the foundations of a recession.

What We do not know, for now, it is if this recession will be there And above all how serious and profound it can be: perhaps it is still avoidable and above all it may not be heavy and lasting, If Trump himself and his administration will be sufficiently trained (and frightened) by the impacts they have caused in their first hundred days.

The « fear duties » effect

Certainly, behind the fall of the gross domestic product of the United States in the first three months of 2025 (-0.3%), More than the effect of the duties, there is the fear they were to arrive.

An infinite number of companies have rushed to import the products who feared having to pay more in the near future (See the Corriere of 25 January last), as soon as the customs costs had increased.

The logistics warehouses in the first economy of the world were filled up to the capacity.

The purchases from abroad accelerates to anticipate more difficult conditions later aggravated, during the winter, the condition that Trump himself says he wants to fight. The balance of exchanges of goods between the United States and the rest of the world has sunk on deficit levels (in dollars) more acute since modern series exist: Less 130 billion in January – According to the data of the Fed of St. Louis – 74 billion in October 2024, the last month before the elections in which Trump triumphed.

Simply, the importers hurried to buy wines from abroad, but above all – according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis – medical, dental, pharmaceutical or food supplements.

The impact of foreign trade on GDP

This race for purchases from abroad to anticipate the duties, worsening the commercial balance, sank the American gross domestic product in the first quarter.

Foreign trade in fact has impact on GDP for the balance with abroad: the more passive it is and the more it takes away from growth.

And in the first three months of the year The effect of these accelerated imports marked, alone, a 5% contraction (compared to the previous quarter, estimated in annual projection). This impact is counterbalanced by an increase in investments of almost 4%, perhaps also linked to the idea of ​​companies to anticipate the important parts and components. So the GDP fell by 0.3% (always by estimating an annual projection, compared to the three months earlier), when 2024 had closed with a growth of 2.4%.

It was predictable that it would happen and The « courier » had reported it several timesfrom the beginning of February onwards.

Will the duties now cause a real recession?

It remains to be understood now If this data will turn into a real recession now that the duties really are there And – to 23% on average on the rest of the world – they have been the highest ever for America for over a century.

American ports already signal a strong slowdown in the arrivals of door-accounterdue to the duties and warehouses previously filled. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics of the Transport Department shows for example that The volumes of containers in American ports are already halved in February compared to January. Paradoxically, this can support the American GDP, precisely because the commercial balance in the second quarter will improve due to the collapse of the import.

American consumers and the fear of an autineflit recession

But consumers are shaken by the shocks of the last few weeks and from the stock exchange losses. Their trust collapsed from 74 points last December 52 in Aprilaccording to the index of the University of Michigan.

The duties create increasing inflation expectations and brake the consumption themselves. AND the uncertainty on the final picture of these customs rates – which are ultimately taxes – he is certainly slowing down the investments of companies.

Trump’s America today records its first step towards a auti -inflicted recessionof purely political origin. We will know in the summer if it has also moved the second and definitive step.

In the meantime, the maneuvering margin for those who had promised a « golden age » shrinks more every day.