The wholesale price of gasoline is growing the third day in a row
Councils of gasoline on the stock exchange this week passed to growth and from April 14 added 3.7–4.3%. According to the results of the auction on April 17, AI-95 updated the maximum of this year, and the prices for AI-92-the last two months. Experts explain the dynamics by the beginning of seasonal demand, planned repairs of the refineries and deferred purchases that have formed a short -term stiring in the market.
The wholesale price of gasoline is growing for the third day in a row, follows from the data of the St. Petersburg exchange. The AI-95 brand from April 14 to April 17 went up by 3.7%, to 59.71 thousand rubles. per ton, upgrading the maximum from the beginning of the current year. The previous record was recorded on February 10 – 59.52 thousand rubles. per ton. Since the beginning of the current week, gasoline has risen in price by 4.32%, to 53.2 thousand rubles. per ton. Above the price of this brand were in early February.
In April 17 alone, the AI-95 and AI-92 quotes increased by 1.46% and 1.25%, respectively.
The Kommersant source in the fuel market explains that March and April are the traditional time of the start of planned repairs at the refineries, which is why the volume of production is temporarily reduced. Objective reasons for a sharp increase in the cost of gasoline, he said, are not observed now. But the market, waiting for possible interruptions in deliveries, begins to actually purchase fuel, which creates a stir and pushes prices up, the interlocutor of Kommersant points out. The AI-95 was most expensive, since it is produced less than the AI-92, and the demand for it remains higher, he clarifies. According to Reuters, the volume of idle capacities of primary oil refining at the refinery in April increased by 32.8%, to 2.84 million tons.
Maxim Dyachenko, managing partner of the Proleum trader, notes that a significant increase in gas prices occurred in the last two exchange sessions. The previous auction, according to him, did not demonstrate significant changes – the market was in the lateral movement, which cannot be considered the beginning of the trend.
NEFT Research Managing Partner Sergei Frolov says that fuel prices in Russia no longer follow the global oil conjuncture. In the wholesale market, they are restrained by the damping mechanism, and in retail for several years there has been an unspoken ban on rising prices significantly exceeding official inflation, he states. This year, the analyst continues, the pressure on prices will intensify: in addition to the traditional spring-summer growth of demand, an “unearthly” increase in excise taxes will also play a role. According to Rosstat, inflation from April 8 to 14 amounted to 0.11% after 0.16% week earlier. AI-95 average retail prices increased by 0.16%per week, to 61.56 rubles. per liter, on AI-92-by 0.12%, up to 56.36 rubles. per liter.
According to Maxim Dyachenko, sharp fluctuations in exchange prices reflect the volatility of the market.
“Two height days are a reaction to the deferred demand that has been formed over the past weeks,” he says. Market participants, explains Mr. Dyachenko, either reduced reserves, avoiding freezing of funds and paying banking interest, or put off purchases in anticipation of more favorable prices. But before the May holidays, demand is activated, and players seek to more actively fix volumes and prices, he points out.
It is almost impossible to predict the further direction of price movement, says Maxim Dyachenko. On the one hand, he says, global oil prices are falling, on the other hand, an abnormally strengthened ruble makes an export alternative to little interest and helps to reduce fuel prices within the country. This stimulates the company to increase supplies to the domestic market, since the wholesale margin remains high, and retail prices still arrange consumers, maintaining demand, adds Mr. Dyachenko.
The Ministry of Energy expect an increase in the production of autobensin and diesel fuel in 2025 relative to last year while maintaining the previous level of consumption, this week said the deputy director of the Department of the oil and gas complex of the Ministry of Energy, Roman Kabakov. At the same time, according to him, the share of AI-95 in the structure of gasoline production in the Russian Federation this year should approach 50%. “There is always increased interest in him from independent market participants. Just three years ago, the figure was about 40%, ”TASS official quoted. The reserves of autobensin in the first decade of April were at the level of last year – 1.95 million tons, reported Reuters with reference to Roman Kabakov.
