« The war and the United States create a unique chance for Europe »
An abandoned Europe that runs in old wheel tracks will fail with Ukraine, our own safety and the economy. Still, there is now a unique shortcut to erection.
The defense capability no longer depends on the large layers of obsolete equipment on which the great powers are located, but on fast -moving companies that develop new technology such as intelligent drones. At the same time, reforms that pave the way for such companies can give Europe a greatly improved economy.
USA's raised growth is currently on clay feet. It is driven by huge budget deficits and probably overvalued AI companies. Together with Trump's tariffs and other self -harm behavior is an American punk or financial crash in the cards. China and of course Russia already have much worse growth than they themselves recognize.
So there is Space for a European economic renaissance, and it is closely related to the transition of the defense industry. A crucial opening for Europe is that the turbo speed in the development of AI-based drone technology has strongly eroded the combat value of the weapons layers on which the United States and Russia are sitting.
Tanks, cannons and aircraft fight out lightning fast in Ukraine of clouds of ever smarter drones. They are upgraded with newly developed electronics about every six weeks and reach longer. Most countries' slow defense procurement is now dysfunctional.
Admittedly, the United States also has companies that are at the front of the new technology, such as Palantir. But Europe has German Helsing in close collaboration with the AI company Mistral, as well as several other promising startups.
Most fast -moving are 1,500 Ukrainian new companies, which also focus on low production costs in order to quickly produce large amounts of the new weapons. Last year, the West invested only just under EUR 250 million in these Ukrainian startups, a mock stealer in this context.
Europe should Thus, investing massively in the new fast -paced companies. Instead, most orders are still being discussed from traditional defense industries on already outdated weapons systems. It would be devastating if EU countries borrowed and pumped even larger sums into them. European actors should of course also interrupt procurement of the expensive US systems, which still become outdated when they arrive. It is also not possible to ensure American support by ordering F35 aircraft that will only come in ten years-and where the risk is imminent that the United States does not even allow the use of them to help other European countries.
Now it is important to invest in what belongs to the future and is being built in Europe. A redirect of defense efforts need to go hand in hand with Reforms that generally bed for new tech startups and thus paves the way for a European economic renaissance.
According to mine Research -based calculation has the European economy the potential to be lifted by as much as 10 percentage points in addition to normal growth over a ten -year period. The contribution corresponds to five times as much as the EU countries today invests in the defense, and would, in addition to securing the defense capacity, cover both the climate change and welfare.
The calculation is based on the index for so -called economic freedom, which according to the research causes growth in terms of growth. The indices are compilations of the degree of regulation, legal state, tax burden and efficiency in public institutions. The fact that the growth potential requires EU countries to climb from the average for the indices (where Germany is located) to greater economic freedom on par with Ireland or Denmark.
National political locks have so far stood in the way of the necessary reforms. However, the security situation provides new openings. In addition, leverage should be created for reforms both inside and outside the EU:
1. Before a rule crusher. Exclude defense-related startups from the forest of new EU regulation of digital technology. Extend the EU's rule crusher already decided for green investments within the framework of the « Net Zero Industry Act » to all areas, especially defense -related investments.
2. War budget for the EU. Pause EU expenses that, according to evaluations, do not produce results, and invest in a defense fund. An example is the regional support, which largely has no effect.
3. War budget outside the EU. A separate war budget is established by the countries that support defense of Europe including Britain. By simple majority, they can decide the requirements that are placed on participating countries regarding rule of law, growth reforms and focus on new defense technology. The countries that are already investing most in the defense should receive a discount. This would not only be a defense initiative, but is also a body to an alternative EU in case countries such as Hungary and Slovakia put the EU in total paralysis.
4. Do not release the sanctions against Russia. Regardless of which ceasefire Ukraine can be forced into, Europe – for its own safety – should maintain sanctions. It includes stops for gas imports and exports of strategic goods, as well as continued use of the frozen Russian central banks to cover both Ukrainian and European claims against Russia. In addition, more sanctions should be introduced against the many uncertain ships in the Russian shadow fleet that threaten to drown the Baltic Sea in oil spills, and which leaves inexplicably many cable breaks in its wake.
The European The countries' actions now determine the survival of the democratic world as we know it. Technology leaps give Europe a unique chance to build both defense and economic strength. It is important to take advantage of it.
