The volume of transactions in the first quarter of 2025

The total cost of M&A transactions in the Russian market in the first quarter of 2025 amounted to $ 7.35 billion, this is the minimum value in three years. The market continues to have a negative impact on the tightening of the requirements for the sale of assets belonging to non -residents introduced at the end of 2024. In addition, a high key rate also does not contribute to activity during M&A transactions.

According to the results of the first quarter, the M&A market volume with a threshold of $ 1 million amounted to only $ 7.35 billion. This is 24.4% lower than last year and the lowest result of the first quarter for three years, it follows from the study of the AK & M news agency. Over the years, the number of transactions also decreased – almost 16%, to 78 transactions, and the average cost of the transaction increased by 39.3%to $ 72.7 million.

The largest volumes for M&A transactions were recorded in the construction and development segments ($ 2.03 billion), financial institutions ($ 1.99 billion), insurance ($ 0.71 billion). Among the largest transactions ($ 1.75 billion), the agency allocates the sale of 45% of Alfa Bank by businessmen Mikhail Friedman and Peter Aven to his partner Andrei Kosogov. In addition, Mr. Kosogov also acquired the Alfastrakhovanie insurance group for $ 0.61 billion. The second largest transaction is the purchase of the Rostec-City business quarter by the Rostec State Corporation for $ 0.82 billion.

One of the negative factors affecting the M&A market remains the key rate of the Bank of Russia in the amount of 21%, “since the high cost of borrowed funds impedes the purchases of assets,” the AK & M study notes.

“The tough DCP and the high cost of money are pressed on the assessment of closed businesses, form overstated discounts from customers, sellers may not be ready for this,” explains Pavel Mitrofanov, general director of business experts.

In addition, the number of applications from residents of unfriendly countries for the sale of Russian assets is gradually reduced. “Many Western companies that previously planned to leave the Russian market suspend these plans,” said Lyudmila Eremina, deputy general director of AK & M agency. In particular, the Italian manufacturer of household appliances Ariston returned to the Russian market and received its previous assets that were previously under the control (see Kommersant on March 27). Against this background, some foreign companies that have tried to leave Russia are now “postponing the implementation of such plans,” AK & M notes.

Experts indicate tightening regulation at the end of last year (see “Kommersant” of October 12, 2024). In particular, a discount from 50% to 60% of the market value of the assets sold increased, an obligatory contribution to the budget increased from 15% to 35% of the market assessment of the business, the president’s mandatory approval for more than 50 billion rubles has appeared, Cliff Skvortsova’s legal executive noted. “In 2024, these innovations were introduced retrospectively, and several transactions collapsed, since the parties could not agree on a mutually acceptable price in the new conditions,” says Kept’s partner Denis Surovtsev.

At the same time, the increase in the average cost of a transaction may be associated with the resale of assets previously redeemed from foreign owners. It is possible that the assets of “departed” foreign companies, the so -called secondary sales from Russian holders of these assets, which can be on average more expensive, the senior counsel for financial counseling of the Marillion group of companies, Anton Levodonsky, began to enter the market.

In the near future, experts do not expect a sharp reduction in the market. Partly support for the market will increase the share of problem assets in various sectors. As Denis Surovtsev explains, it is rather not about selling the entire problem asset (although such cases are also possible), but about complicated transactions, for example, with a combination of long and borrowed capital. In addition, according to him, « large problem companies can sell part of their assets. » In particular, in the construction segment, the redistribution of the land bank with high debt is possible. However, the M&A market is not expected to be significant. As Mr. Surovtsev explains, “transactions related to the problem will set up other types of transactions (outputs of foreigners,/ for example), and this will help to support the market level.”

One of the most active sectors from the point of view of M&A will be technological in 2025, an increase in both the number of transactions and their cost is on average by 15–20%, says Vitaly Balanda, CEO of Rexoft Venturs. And the reasons for this is “the adaptation of the market to new conditions, the growing internal demand for technological solutions, especially in industry and safety, as well as the predictable decrease in the key rate,” he explains.

Julia Proving