the volume of extradition is growing, but so far lags behind last year
The volume of issuing cash loans has been demonstrating growth since the beginning of 2025: in March they reached 237 billion rubles, maximum in five months. However, in comparison with previous years, activity in this segment is still too low, and the volumes of issuance are more than doubled. Banks are in the faster regulatory restrictions prevent the issuance, and potential borrowers scare away high rates. In the second quarter, the volume of issuing loans in cash will not change radically, and the real revival in the segment will begin closer to 2026, experts believe.
According to the results of March 2025, the volume of issuing cash loans amounted to 237 billion rubles, exceeding the February indicator by 8% and reaching the maximum since November last year. This follows from Frank RG. The restoration of the segment lasts the third month in a row. During this time, the issuance volumes increased by almost 22%. At the same time, they are still noticeable (by 60%) lag behind the indicators of March and 2024 and 2023. According to the results of the first quarter of 2025, the volume of issuance amounted to 654 billion rubles, which is more than two times lower than for similar periods of 2024 and 2023.
The weak positive dynamics of the first months of this year is also confirmed in banks. VTB notes that « the dynamics corresponds to forecasts taking into account the level of bets and the risk policy of the regulator. » At the same time, the growth of lending volumes from month to month in the first quarter “is due to the seasonal revitalization of consumer activity,” they say there.
At the same time, according to Frank RG, at the beginning of the year the average loan amount also increased (in March it reached 160.6 thousand rubles), while the number of loans issued, on the contrary, was reduced, amounting to 1.47 million in March. An increase in the average loan size with reducing the overall amount of issuance is the result of a decrease in demand and reduction of approval of loans, experts say. According to Inna Soldatenkova, the head of the Banku.ru expert analytics, « the trend is preserved on the market to reduce the level of approval on unsecured cash loans and the reorientation of banks to work with pledge loans. » VTB notes that « macroprudentic limits, allowances for risk coefficients on cash loans, as well as an increase in the number of borrowers with high debt load reduce the approval level of applications. » According to the Banka.ru marketplace, in January 2025, compared with last year’s indicator, users were left 74% less in cash loans, in February – 80% less, in March – 76% less.
At the same time, according to the forecasts of analysts, in the short term, the situation in the cash loan market will not change much. According to the managing director of the expert RA rating agency Yuri Belikova, “from April to June, cash loans will be at about the level of March with possible small deviations in a large way – 240–280 billion rubles. per month « . According to him, lending rates have ceased to grow, « but also for such a reduction that would objectively increase the availability of borrowed funds, there are no grounds in the coming months. »
Banks a little weaken the risk policy after their critical tightening at the end of last year, but again it is not so significant that we can talk about the restoration of the market, Mr. Belikov points out. In the basic forecast “Bank.ru” in the short term, it is not excluded that “individual players can begin to prevent their properment for individual borrowers,” Inna Soldatenkova notes. Including, if at the next meeting of the Central Bank “a signal is received about a possible reduction in the key rate”. At the same time, in early March, Sberbank reduced the minimum rate on consumer loans by 1 p., To 25.9% per annum. In March, VTB reduced the minimum rates on consumer loans by 0.5 p., To 20.1% per annum.
Experts also note that the situation in the cash loan market will depend on macroeconomic regulation. At the same time, the T-Bank noted that until the time of the key rate, they are going to work “without cardinal changes”. But after the rate falls, the bank expects an increase in the volume of “customer refinancing”. The “expert RA” in the basic scenario notes that a decrease in the key rate should be expected in the second half of 2025. “Maybe already in the summer or at the very beginning of autumn,” says Yuri Belikov. At the same time, according to him, « the restoration of the issuance will be smooth, since the bets will decline slowly, and the current increased debt burden of citizens is not optimized overnight. » In the VTB, “real revival of demand” is expected no earlier than 2026, “when loans are more affordable.”
