The volume of commissioning of commercial real estate in Moscow will be reduced by the end of 2026
The commercial real estate market, which has been actively developing in recent years, seems to be soon encountering a crisis. According to consultants, by the end of 2026, the volume of offices in Moscow will be reduced by 51%year by the year, warehouses – by 29%, shopping centers – by 71%. The reason is in the high cost of borrowed financing and growing construction costs.
The volume of input of office real estate in Moscow by the end of 2026 will be reduced by 51% year by the year, to 360 thousand square meters. m, told Kommersant in CMWP consulting company. According to consultants, a decrease in this indicator is also recorded in other segments of commercial real estate. According to the results of 2026, the volume of the new construction of warehouse complexes in Moscow and the Moscow Region will decrease by 29% of the year, to 1.2 million square meters. m, and trading real estate – for 71% year by the year, up to 76 thousand square meters. m, noted in CMWP.
The fall of commercial real estate input in 2026 is explained by the rise in price of borrowed financing due to the high key rate of the Central Bank and the increase in construction costs, says Ekaterina Nogai, head of the Department of Research and IBC Real Estate Consulting Company. She adds that in such a situation, many developers prefer to postpone the terms for withdrawing their objects to the market.
In the office segment, a noticeable reduction in the volume of new construction will take place against the backdrop of an acute shortage shortage due to high demand, said Lyudmila Gerlitz, director of the Nikoliers consulting company Analystation Department.
The average vacancy in the Moscow office market according to the results of January -March 2025 amounted to 3.7%, calculated in the consulting company Core.xp. The main volume of premises in business centers is being implemented even at the construction stage, and by the time the commissioning of the vacancy in such facilities is minimal, explains Mrs. Gerlitz. In 2025 alone, about 29% of office spaces of 667 thousand square meters remained available for purchase. m, she calculated.
The opposite situation is observed in Warehouse segmentwhere input volumes decreased due to the cooling of the market after an active growth for the last three years, they note in Core.xp. Large online retailers, which have previously been the main consumers of warehouse real estate, are currently preferred to optimize logistics chains in existing objects, passing extra areas in sublease, explains Polina Afanasyeva, head of the CMWP research department and analysts. The share of companies from the sphere of e -commerce decreased to 15%, which is 32 percentage points less than a year by the year, Constantine Fomichenko, partner of NF Group, calculated.
In this situation, developers of warehouse real estate take a wait-and-see position, however, after potential mitigation of monetary policy, the volume of input by the end of 2027 can grow, Konstantin Fomichenko notes. According to CMWP forecasts, the volume of new construction of warehouses according to the results of 2027 will increase to 1.5 million square meters. m, which is 25% more than in 2026.
The most sensitive to geopolitical changes was the market of trade real estate, where consultants predict the largest drop in the input volumes.
Additional pressure on the segment was reoriented by consumers on online buying, which leads to a revision of concepts and formats for the development of trading facilities, says Yana Kuzina, partner of the analytical center of the Ricci consulting company.
At the moment, there are practically no new projects for the construction of trade centers, notes Ekaterina Nogai. According to her, operators of such real estate have difficulties with the search for quality tenants. This is due to the fact that new brands began to appear in the Russian market less often. According to CMWP, by the end of 2025, 22 new brands will enter the Russian market, which is 57% less than a year by the year.
