The US trade tariffs, along with the eurozone, will also fall into Latvia’s economic growth / day

SEB banka economist Dainis Gashpuitis told LETA that April 2 was expected with great impatience, but once again the world was expected from the US administration.

« The fact that countries would be tariffs would be clear. But the type and volume of their calculation is so absurd to assume that tariffs are still likely to be corrected, also significant. Especially when the consequences of these tariffs, such as access to goods and prices and affects the US economy, » Gashpuitis explained.

He also pointed out that the tariffs adopted can be so disproportionate to those in the US, the countries currently apply to implement countermeasures.

« Of course, there is a realization that such countermeasures will mean an increase in escalation, but it will not be possible to avoid it due to the domestic politics of many countries, » said SEB banka’s economist. He also added that it is difficult to say how trade relations between other countries would turn out, as the US market would be looking for sales in other markets and countries can begin to apply market protection measures.

Gashpuitis said that comparing the regions, many Asian countries are at the highest tariff level, the North American and South American countries are at the lowest level, with a rate of 10% at a rate of 10%, but the European Union is in the middle of the 20% rate. « This is not completely unexpected, given the signals before making a decision. It is possible that the US will start negotiations with countries on their individual tariffs, » the economist said, adding that the EU has now announced that he was ready for negotiations but has also prepared countermeasures.

As Gashpuitis explained, the announced tariffs are higher than expected and will adversely affect growth. He stressed that it was too early to make a full assessment, but they seem to not lead to US decline but raise inflation. Tariffs will also lead to the growth of the eurozone, but it is difficult to say to what extent, as the announced tariffs will change the flows of goods to the US and the relatively lower tariff countries will appear.

The economist stressed that the influence of tariffs on Europe, especially Germany, will be felt. For example, in certain groups of commodities, Europe may have new opportunities to export to the United States compared to Asia.

« At the moment, the negative impact is not so critical that the eurozone is drawn into the recession. Weaker eurozone prospects will affect Latvia’s growth, but for the time being, it seems that direct effects will be limited, » Gashpuitis said, adding that lower interest rates, purchasing power strengthening and EU funds.

Gashpuitis emphasized that unpredictable escalation of trade warfare is the key and high enough risk, which would also open up the wider opportunities for the crisis.

Swedbank’s chief economist, Liva Zorgenfrey, told LETA that Trump’s April 2 statements not only confirmed that we were in the era of protectionism, but suggested that wide tariff wars were here.

« Everything shows that the Trump team has not investigated the promised tariffs and other trade barriers. The US has announced unexpectedly high import tariffs that are not related to the tariffs already in force in the relevant partner countries, » Zorgenfrey said, adding that the biggest sufferers are. countries). She also stressed that the trade deficit is only taken into account on the product side, while the services are easily ignored. Tariff levels in the US economy will be similar to that in the early 20th century – this is likely to mean lower growth and higher inflation in both the US and worldwide, the economist said.

Zorgenfria explained that the EU, including Latvia, sets 20% tariffs. These statements will be followed by an EU response, which will be much more weighing than the US approach. According to the Swedbank economist, the EU will try to hit the most painful « places » in the US, at the same time as possible by sparing EU consumers and companies.

The economist also emphasized that the EU may also face the fact that other countries (such as China), previously designed for the US market, flood the EU market. I, too, said I would fight.

Zorgenfrey said that the value added in Latvian -producing sectors, which has an exposure to the US, is a relatively small part of the whole of Latvia’s economy – just over 1%. But there are industries where the US market is important. Approximately 6% of the added value in the Latvian manufacturing industry is exported to the US in direct or indirect (as components in the production of other goods in the form of a trading partner).

According to the economist, Eurostat data show that sub -sectors, which have a larger exposure to the US, have woodworking, furniture, electrical and electronic equipment. Foreign trading data also shows that there are groups of goods where the US market is very important. For example, Latvia exports almost half of all oriented particle board (OSB) exports. Almost 60% of the exports of telescopic sights were exported to the US last year. Therefore, there will be separate sectors and companies that will feel the tariffs directly.

« Consumers and companies using US -imported goods and services will apply to EU response tariffs. There is really no specificity. I want dialogue, but it is not clear whether Trump wants to talk and would be ready to reduce tariffs in exchange for some other benefits, » Zorgenfrey said.

She emphasized that all economic operators would be affected by trade wars under the influence of the forthcoming economic activity in the world, Europe and also in Latvia.

« The economy will suffer from the tariffs itself, but even more negative effects may be as a result of paralyzing confusion. Lower demand for corporate production is expected. This will mean a minimum of much slower wage growth, but may mean higher unemployment, » Zorgenfreia explained.

As the economist pointed out, if we see weakness in the labor market, the internal demand will suffer, which will mean an even more unpleasant drop in GDP. In addition, higher international trade tariffs will also mean higher prices for consumers.

« Overall, this is very bad news for the economy. We can only hope that an agreement will be reached and we will not have to know what the open economies will be paid to the rapid end of globalization, » Zorgenfreia emphasized.

Economist at Citadele Bank Karlis Purgailis told LETA that direct Latvian exports to the United States were relatively small – in 2024 accounted for 1.3% of GDP, but taking into account the impact of supply chains, Latvia’s overall exposition to US demand through trading partners could exceed 3%. According to Eurostat’s evaluation in 2022, it was 3.5% of GDP.

He stated that the main goods that Latvia exported to the US in 2024 was wood, wood products (0.4% of GDP, 5% of total exports), optics (0.2% of GDP, 17% of total export), equipment and hardware (0.2% of GDP, 3.5% of the total). Purgailis pointed out that these exporters would have a direct impact on the tariffs defined.

« Overall, the potential negative direct impact on the Latvian economy is relatively irrelevant. But it should be borne in mind that additional negative effects can be expected from indirect effects due to a decline in eurozone economic growth, » Purgailis said, adding that the eurozone’s direct exports to the US accounts for about 3% of GDP.

According to the economist, if the export of the eurozone is deprived of pharmaceutical exports, tariffs are only about 2.5% of GDP. Consequently, it can be concluded that the eurozone’s growth rates will be drowned, but there is currently no reason to talk about the recession.

« However, in the current situation, the potential positive impact on Latvia can also be seen. Namely, after the introduction of US tariffs, European producers will want to reduce costs, which could encourage manufacturers to transfer at least part of the production processes to the » cheapest « EU countries and the Baltic States from this. »

It has already been reported that Trump has announced the determination of new customs tariffs for imports of goods from abroad, including high tariffs for US important trading partners – China and the European Union (EU).

Trump reported that the 10% tariff will enter into force on April 5 and higher tariffs on April 9.

The US president said the 49% tariff will be set for goods from Cambodia, 47% – Madagascar, 48% – Laos, 46% – Vietnam, 44% – Myanmar, 37% – Bangladesh and Serbia, 36% – Thai, 34% – 32% China, 32% – Indonesia and 31%. South Africa, 29% – Pakistan, 28% – Tunisia, 27% – Kazakhstan, 26% – India, 25% – South Korea, 24% – Japan and Malaysia, 21% – Co -Dedia, 20% for goods from the EU and Jordan, 18% – Nicaragua, 17% – Philippines and Israel.

Other countries, including Britain, will have a « basic » tariff of 10%.