The US tariff policy will negatively affect the world economy in 2025
The leading economists of the world expect that due to the growth of uncertainty, the state of the world economy will worsen significant in the coming year, captures the Chief Economists Outlook of the World Economic Forum. The most trading war will be overlap the USA itself: economic growth in the country, according to experts, will be weak. Among the “seriously victims” will also be Europe and China – although when solving the accumulated internal problems, the PRC can demonstrate steady growth. In general, the report indicates that economists tend to perceive Washington’s trade policy as a factor in long -term structural global shifts.
The state of the global economy in 2025 will deteriorate, follows from the report of Chief Economists Outlook, prepared by experts of the World Economic Forum (VEF). This survey of representatives of international organizations (including the VB, WTO and IMF), as well as banks and large corporations are carried out several times a year. The authors of the report clarify that the data for the latter gathered in April, after Donald Trump announced the pause in the deployment of most country duties (see “Kommersant” of April 10).
According to economists, the US trade policy provoke inflation (as 77% of respondents considered), as well as a decrease in world trade volumes (89%). Additional pressure on the dynamics of global trading will be given response restrictions: 57% of respondents expect that in the coming months, oncoming duties will be actively unfolding, 22% – that barriers will be non -tariff. Let us explain that so far noticeable and comparable answers to Mr. Trump is more likely an exception – most states are counting on the settlement of contradictions during negotiations.
So far, more than half of the experts (53%) are waiting for the “economic damage” from the trade war will be concentrated in the USA and the countries selling with them, for which duties are increased. Almost a third (32%) believes that the consequences will be noticeable for the countries that are not drawn into the confrontation. The economists are in solidarity that the most serious effects of tariffs will be for the United States themselves. 70% are waiting for the weak, and 8% of the very weak growth of the US economy in 2025 (see schedule) – although in January the forecasters spoke of moderate (47%) and strong (44%) growth. As the authors of the report recall, indicators of business activity in the United States in the second quarter fell to many months of minimums.
The prospects of the European economy are still unclear. Half of the experts is waiting for weak growth due to uncertainty in trade, 36%-moderate. It should be noted that economic growth in the coming months can be defined to mitigate the monetary policy: 76% of respondents are waiting for a further decline in bets.
Due to the US tariff policy, the PRC economy will grow more slowly-the deterioration of moods is already fixed by both consumers and business. Taking into account external problems, the stability of GDP expanding can increasingly be linked with the effectiveness of solving internal Chinese problems, experts believe.
It is interesting that most leading economists (76%) perceive Donald Trump’s trading policy as a factor capable of leading to structural shifts in world trade (including seriously affecting supply chains), and do not expect its consequences that they exhaust themselves quickly. International organizations such a view, let us explain, until they are broadcast, referring to the complicating forecasting uncertainty.
