The torn tang is easier than living in a nightmare (special interview)

Vladimir Putin mimics negotiations on ceasefire in Ukraine and at least as he imagines, leads his nose Donald Trump. Seeing that the US president had already realized that the Kremlin was not going to negotiate and was very disappointed, Putin immediately pushes the White House’s owner another temptation – clearly false promises to help agree on Iran’s nuclear program.

It is perfectly understandable in Moscow that the ceasefire offered by Mr Trump is almost ideal for Russia, but Putin still rejected them. People responsible for the country’s economy are also timidly warning the Tsar that they will not be able to pull the ever -increasing military costs forever, but Putin is a deaf and their advice. His shameful « expanding » as Ukrainian shots for Russian strategic aviation will not work. Why is this? According to Russian political expert Ivan Preobražensky, this is determined by an irrational assessment of the situation, determined by Putin’s personal qualities and the propensity to close in the bubble of illusions, refusing to hear what he does not like.

– Trump’s proposal for Ukraine was just ideal for Moscow – to keep everything he captured and in exchange for nothing, and to start economic cooperation with the US. Why does Putin reject him, although the offer is still on the table and the war in Ukraine requires maximum resources to the minimum return?

– Putin does not believe in anything, so he does not believe in the suggestion of Mr Trump. Putin’s mindset is a fraud. He is convinced that Washington would « get out » all the promises at the same moment that Moscow would start negotiating them. On the other hand, Mr Trump did not work to convince Putin’s reality of the offer.

The second reason is Putin’s belief that he wins. In his psychopathic consciousness, Putin sees the victory in the war and believes that all Trump’s promised goodies will spontaneously, without any negotiation as soon as Ukraine is defeated. For example, he now hopes that this summer all Ukrainian defense will fall into the chips. Such faith is determined by his personal desires, and most likely, and the false information supplied by his subordinates, which inflates the problems of Ukrainians and to silence the woes of the Russian army and economy.

The Russian army does not have the strength to repeat something like Mariupol’s occupation, but Putin still hopes that the Ukrainians will simply go down and run, and the Russian regiments will hijack Ukraine without battle.

They are hated by wife, children and all loved ones hate them. Blind life – zero. Getting into the trench and getting there is an enticingly easy way to finish the nightmare.

– The Ukrainian operation « Spider » was a terrible and shameful defeat of Russia, but does it affect something in Russia? Society, elite, Putin himself?

– Obviously, it affects military personnel who are well aware of the serious consequences. But the military does not affect political decisions. After the dismissal of Sergei Shoig, the real minister of the Minister of Defense is Putin, and Andrei Belousov, who replaced S. Shoigai, is just an accountant.

It also affects Putin’s environmental people who call him to negotiate peace rather than play negotiations. There are quite a few such people, some members of the government, and Elvyra Nabiulina, the same head of the central bank. All of them exploit the military failures of the Russian army to change Putin’s opinion.

The secret service was worried because the « cobweb » was just their fiasco. I have no doubt that the services are currently talking about what will be chosen by the scapegoat, who will lose the posts and what Putin will assign to their place. However, it has nothing to do with changes in policies and movement towards real negotiations.

And the public reacts in the same way as in all other similar cases: they are frightened first and then come to terms with the fact because you will « do nothing ». Human life in Russia costs very little, so no one even worries about how to defend against Ukrainian strokes. Such is the whole war, a collective suicide, which is attacked by hundreds of thousands of any hopeful Russian « musician ». Many of them go to war not because of their high salaries, but because their lives are a black nightmare. They are hated by wife, children and all loved ones hate them. Blind life – zero. Getting into the trench and getting there is an enticingly easy way to finish the nightmare.

Ivan Preobraženski/Personal Arch. Photo by

– You mentioned that there are people at the tops of government calling Putin to negotiate peace. Does that mean that in his environment is ‘Conditional War and Peace Fractions?

– Such fractions have been from the beginning of the war and their balance is changing periodically. When the front is bad, Putin listens more closely to the Peace Group, and when it is good, their rivals. For example, he realized that it was not possible to ruin his relationship with Trump from the beginning, which automatically increased the weight of the peace faction.

Three groups are categorically advocated for the continuation of the war. First of all, propagandists, whose influence and wealth increased significantly through the war and will lose it all after the war. The second is the fanatical « silovika » (power structures), who believe that before the victory in Ukraine, Russia will simply cease to exist. Of course, they also profit from the war. And the third are representatives of a well -earned business. The latter are not at all categorically against peace, but they would like the war to be slightly prolonged and the flow of profits would not go away quickly.

It is possible to judge Putin’s actions and statements about which fraction is more influential. Now they show that the warrior wins.

We are in a vicious circle: if the war is over – the economy will collapse instantly, and if the war continues, it will probably also end in collapse, but not today.

– Russia announces very ambitious plans to increase military capabilities to western borders. For example, it is about reorganizing twelve brigades into divisions, which is very expensive even to Russia, especially given that its economy is not the best of times. Excessive military spending completely destroyed the USSR economy. Can this happen to present Russia?

– potentially, such an opportunity is. On the other hand, the economy of present -day Russia is stronger and much better adapting to new circumstances than the Soviet. Three years of war showed that the Russian economy could withdraw, but it is capable of not being able to go. Of course, the economy is now degrading, but still holding. It was completely militarized and rolling on war rails, which was determined by the successful actions of Putin’s environmental economists and ineffective Western sanctions. During the war, huge money was charged to the militarization of the economy, which are over. That is, if Moscow conceives the economy, there is no money and the economy would not be confident in such a shock. The only source of such a cash mass is the West, but so far there is no language about it, because even after the war, Western investors will not spread to Russia.

So, we are in a vicious circle: if the war is over – the economy will collapse instantly, and if the war continues, it will probably also end in collapse, but not today. Putin sees, in his opinion, a realistic way to seize all of Ukraine and to solve all its economic resources to solve Russian economy problems. The Peace Group offers him an alternative to agree with the ceasefire and raise money from Mr Trump. Allegedly, we will deal with our problems, and in a few years we will be able to war again. But Putin claims that Russia is about to win, and the Western money will return to Russia. It looks like he believes in this scenario now.