The theory of « chaos » Spanish world that erodes democracy | Spain

PP and Vox’s hammering is incessant: Spain is a « chaos »the result of a useless government, unable to manage the most basic, as prove the blackout and the Railway delays. In the eyes of both parties, the country offers a third -world image, although they do not pay – an excessive amount of taxes is paid. In Spain Fiscal pressure falls more than the OECD average. And it is the only great economy that is fought from the FMI worsening forecasts. But none of that changes the script of the opposition: waste, disaster, ruin, chaos. It is not an inane discourse, its effects are not merely short -term. Far from serving only to wear out the government, the dissemination of land, sea and air of the message of the national disaster gathers all the ingredients to aggravate phenomena already unleashed and verifiable, such as the growing discredit in the conservative field of the welfare state and taxes to sustain them.

The theory of « chaos », which marida with that of the « Failed state » That he made fortune after the Dana, does not fall on a vacant lot, but already sown with negative ideas about public services and the usefulness of the Public Treasury, ideas that during the stage of President Pedro Sánchez have not stopped growing among the followers of the PP and Vox. And there is something deeper. Surveys also show a decline of commitment to democracy in conservative Spain during the Sánchez stage.

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The advance of these ideas is not fortuitous, but induced. The parties, as pooling researchers as Mariano Torcal either Luis Millernot only adapt to popular ideas To gain votes, but, with the positions they take, they mold popular thinking. They are connected channels. One feeds the other and vice versa.

Especially following the pandemicthe parties of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal have chosen to draw Spain as a country whose government « is fined » based on excessive taxes, unfairly charged to a tyrannized citizenship that sees how the fruit of their effort only serves to pay ideological whims or see the world aboard a falcon, all while public services are neglected.

Has this ideological constant percussion had effect? The data of the Sociological Research Center (CIS) point to a resounding yes.

The CIS has a series in which it poses to its respondents several statements about taxes and public services. One of them is: « Taxes are something that the State forces us to pay without knowing very well in exchange for what. » When he raised it for the last time in 2024, almost 40% of the voters of the PP shown according to this skeptical point of view on public taxes and services, and almost 59% of those of Vox. Only five years ago, in 2019, were 27.3% and 40.2% in Vox, respectively. The worsening is drastic.

Instead, evolution is contrary to the left. If in 2019 the percentage of voters of the PSOE (25%) and united Podemos (18.1%) according to that phrase was already comparatively low, now it is even more: 9.3% of the voters of the PSOE and 4.6% of those of adding. The speeches of the matches echo in their parishes. The positions are polarized. The land is narrowed for a common welfare status project.

When respondents must be between 0 – to make public services even if you have to pay more taxes – and the 10 – just the opposite -, the voters of the PP are placed in 5.5 and those of Vox, in 6.2. That is, in the area of Less taxes in exchange for less services. Those of the PSOE and add, are located at 3.5 and 2.7, respectively. I mean, on the other side of the axis. Again, there is not only gap, but it widens. Five years ago, right -wing voters was at 4.5 (pp) and 4.1 (Vox). Those of the PSOE, in 3.9; and those of Unidas Podemos, in 3.2.

The perception that society benefits « much » or « quite » of what comes out of the taxpayers’ pocket barely exceeds a third of Feijóo voters and does not reach 29% in those of Abascal, while approaching 60% in the case of leftist parties. As in the previous cases, the difference by blocks is increasing. There is a shocking result. Three quarters of the electorates of the PP and Vox think that they themselves and their families receive “less” than they should for what they pay. Only five years ago, the percentages were 51% and 66%. The evolution of the curve is the opposite in the voters of the progressive formations, among those who believe they receive « less » of the deserved do not reach 50% and decrease.

Democratic commitment

In The cost of inequality (Ariel, 2022), the Professor of Economics in Oxford Diego Sánchez-Ancochea warns how social polarization in vertebral issues in a democracy makes it difficult to build more or less acceptable political projects for broad majorities, in turn pushing parties to the ideological enclosure and the worsening of the problem, in a vicious circle. Although his research focuses on Latin America, his conclusions are presented as warnings for any society: without minimal ideas shared on taxes, distribution of wealth and public services, the democratic commitment of those who do not feel represented by those who exercise power is fray.

Is it happening in Spain? The available data are a attention call. This week, the CIS has made public the percentages of those who believe in « in some circumstances » an « authoritarian government » is preferable to a democracy. In all electorates they are a minority, but they are more on the right than on the left. And again the trends diverge. In the conservative electorate the percentage of those who do not rule out the authoritarian preference grows between 2019 and 2025, during the Sánchez stage: from 4.7% to 7% in the PP; from 21 to 30.3% in Vox. This data is not trivial: it is almost a third. In the progressive field, the percentages are lower and also diminish: from 3% to 2.2% in the PSOE, from 2.2% to 0.8% in United we can first, add later.

A « devastating » effect

It is in this steep terrain that lands the discourse of delay and Spanish disgust. Can it be effective to erode the government? Yes, the Uned Carmen Lumbierres political professor and the political consultant Jordi Sarrión-Carbonell. But also, adds lumbierres, it is the speech that « affects the opinion of citizens about the quality of democracy. » An opinion that does not go through its best moment.

The political scientist Camil Ungureanu, a professor at the Pompeu Fabra who has investigated the effect of the different rhetoric in the democratic tissue, does not hide his concern. By using any problem to « maximize political revenue », accusing its deceased and « mortal enemy », the parties that in their opinion should stabilize the system in the center – the PP in Spain, Junts, in Catalonia – cause a « devastating » effect. Which? An investment of the logic of the debate, for which « democracy is presented as authoritarianism and the autocrats become the true defenders of democracy. » All this causes a « corrosion » of the democratic commitment of the recipients of these messages, he adds.

« Give Lapuente, Professor of Political Science at the University of Gothenburg, in Sweden.

The PP, he says, should be « very cautious » when playing the « letter of the anti -system speech » according to which « everything goes fatal. » Because? Because the evidence says that the perception of dysfunctional public services is land paid for the extreme right, Lapuente responds, which cites it to illustrate research on France, Italy and Poland Failed expectations: Government quality and support for populist parties in Europe, Posted in 2017 in European Journal of Political Research, which concludes that the negative « perception » of voters about public services is a « strong predictor » of the extremist vote.