The (submerged) value of the GDP: services, « black » and network, so the economic story of Italy must be updated

A question torments us (so to speak) for years. And it is the following: Are we able to enclose, in the figures of national accounting, all the changes that intervened in the way of producing and exchanging goods and services whose value is increasingly intangible and elusive? Or are we still too conditioned by the inertia of a material world, concentrated more on the places of production and consumption (the factory and the family) and less on individual subjects?
The study that we present in preview – will be published at the end of the month in the Il Mulino magazine – embraces a period of time ranging from 2005 to 2023. Therefore governments of various color and nature; crisis of different scope and origin. Talking about Italian decline – support the two authors, Innocenzo Cipolletta and Sergio De Nardis – is excessive. A form of intellectual self -harm.
This does not mean that everything goes well. Quite the opposite. The basic problems, which mainly concern the wealth produced by an elderly company with a modest human capital and low innovation capacityremain unchanged. But you can look with a very different light and perspective.

Deviations and the intangible economy

The important thing is to invest well, producewaste less, be competitive, do not lose sight of social justice, common goods. The study is inspired by Extraordinary revision, last September, of the economic accounts by Istat, in tune with the Eurostat and the statistical offices of other member countries. On that occasion, The level of Gross domestic product (GDP), at current prices, was correct, for 2021, up 1.1%. The revision was expanded, for 2023, to 2%. With a decrease, suddenly, of the deficit and public debt relationships compared to GDP. Last Wednesday, April 30, Istat presented the preliminary estimate on the progress of the first quarter of 2025. The increase of 0.3% – which obviously does not discount the possible effect of the duties announced by the United States at the beginning of April and then suspended – it is better than expected. In that communication, the National Statistics Institute also proceeded to revise up (from 0.1 to 0.2%) the increase in the last quarter of 2024. They are not small deviations.
The authors specify that they have taken into consideration only the reviews that derive from the major data available over time. Have excluded those result of new statistical definitions. They only went hunting for errors. An article in the latest number of The economistwith significant title Bog Data (who makes the verse to Big, but means more or less swamp), summarizes all the doubts and problems of different countries in creating economic statistics. A digital economy, immaterial is elusive, more difficult to measurable. Also for the lower availability of companies and individuals in responding to questionnaires. The adhesion rate is in some cases simply collapsed.

The question of data reviews

Istat management is absolutely aware of this and is prompted in facing the theme. The reviews are continuous. The extraordinary ones, conducted at five -year intervals, are added to ordinary. All always up. Historical was that of 1987 which re -evaluated the nominal GDP of 18% taking into account the submerged economy and allowed us to overcome the United Kingdom, even becoming the fourth world power. A overtaking bitterly paid then, for the unsustainability of public debt, with the financial crisis of 1992 and the devaluation of the lira. Another substantial correction then made the 2014 GDP rises by 3.7%, incorporating the estimate of the illegal economy, among other things (statistical data is without morality). «But so – it is written in paper – The image of the country always corrects itself in the past, which affects only a few specialists, while it remains characterized by a present that systematically underestimated the economic data producing a negative prejudice then difficult to correct ». Of course, because if the time debate had been made with the correct data later, it would have been very different. And even better the perception of the markets, the vote of international institutions, the degree of self -esteem of an entire community. How many useless discussions saved!
« We are convinced – it is the opinion of Cipolletta – that there is a systematic underestimation of the contribution of the services that represent about 70% of the added value. We are faced with a profound change in the hierarchy of production and commercial processes. The intermediate services increasingly the demand for material goods and are the main buyers. Here is perhaps the greatest degree of imprecision in the initial estimates of national accounting. If the tertiary sector had the same granularity of data and information as the industry, the results would certainly be more reliable ».

Indices and margins

The industrial production index is remembered in the text, is based on 9,500 monthly production flows communicated by 5,700 business units. But the industry weighs, in the formation of the gross product, only for 17%. « Not only that – continues Cipolletta – there is a socio -economic consideration. We are linked to the idea that the factory is the center of production and the family the indispensable nucleus to identify work and consumption. In many cases it is no longer so. Many productions are intangible. Many consumption are individual. Occur in the network. Often not traced. The factories have become flexible, they adapt to producing what the question of the moment requires. The setting of the so -called prevailing production, which is the basis of the production indexes, calculated above all on physical assets, is lost.  »
Incorrect assessments lead to wrong controversies and harmful delays. An example: with the transition to the euro, there was a serious mistake in understanding the trend of volumes and export prices. A long time he claimed that entrepreneurs, not being able to enjoy the effects of devaluations, increased prices to protect profit margins, losing market shares. In reality they were moving to products with greater added value with positive effects on income and employment. So, has the measurement of productivity also be underestimated? « The analyzes – insists onions – focused mainly on the marginal increase. If, for example, we look at the level of the gross domestic product for occupied, and not per capitawe are aligned with the best French and German standards ».

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