The stock market reacted to the trade war
On April 9, the Moscow Exchange index, updating the five -month minimum, dropping below the level of 2600 points, played a significant part of the loss by the end of the day. The American indices, which showed timid growth at the opening, after the statements of US President Donald Trump to suspend the introduction of some duties, took off by 6–8.5%. However, there are still far from stabilization of markets, there will be short -term growth moments, but experts pay attention to the growth of the profitability of American debt papers as a more significant indicator. In addition to the world war, the Russian stock market is threatened with low oil prices and a strong ruble.
On April 9, the Moscow Exchange index by the middle of the trading session dropped to 2598.85 points, a minimum since December 2024. Thus, the benchmark fell by more than 5% in relation to the previous closure. However, leading European indices at this point also showed a decrease by 3.8–4.3%. As the portfolio manager of Astero Falcon Alena Nikolaeva notes, “the duties are now the main instrument of pressure, and from all sides,” China did not trifle with retaliatory measures, Europe was also not long gathering forces.
At the same time, the Russian market is currently “under pressure from low oil and strong ruble prices” (see “Kommersant” from April 5), Andrei Stratichuk, senior financial analyst of the Gazprombank Investment service. Mutual duties only increase the risk of slowing the world economy, which negatively affects the raw materials markets. The price of oil has already decreased to $ 60 per barrel, which, of course, negatively for the Russian market, said Vasily Karpunin, head of the Alfa-Investigation analytics. “Together with oil, industrial metals are under pressure” (see “Kommersant” of April 8), Mr. Stratichuk points out.
Only when opening trading in the USA and other markets began to show a positive movement. At the beginning of the auction, leading American indices showed growth within 1%. As Alena Nikolaeva notes, “someone decided that the market was resold, someone saw Donald Trump trying to soften rhetoric, and Scott immocrates that 70 countries are ready for negotiations.” As a result, European indices played part of the fall and closed only 3-3.3% lower than the closure of the previous day. The Russian IMOEX showed a decrease “only” by 3.5%, dwelling at the mark of 2650.69 points.
After such a significant fall, a short -term rebound of oil quotes may occur, however, a significant improvement in the news background is necessary for the full restoration of oil prices, said Go Invest analysts. “For example, adjustment of OPEC+ plans+ on increasing production or increasing US sanctions pressure on Iran and Venezuela. At the same time, the influence of trade wars on the Russian market is limited due to its isolation, ”they argue.
The protective asset of the first choice for many is gold, new historical maximums of prices are not excluded, Mr. Karpunin notes. In addition, such assets include shares of companies that have a low debt level that dividends, as well as companies from sectors of goods or essential services, Mr. Stratichuk notes.
At the same time, Mrs. Nikolaeva believes that so far it is too early to call the current movement, « the main fear today is not in promotions, but in bonds. » She draws attention to the increase in yield on ten -year -old US Treasuries, which strive for a mark of 4.7% per annum. After that, according to technical analysis, the road opens by 5.5% per annum, and if “cascading liquidations” “go to all 6% per annum, she notes.
Already after the closure of the main trading on the exchanges of Russia and Europe, Donald Trump said that he was suspended the actions of duties in relation to a number of countries for 90 days. Apparently, this caused enthusiasm in the American market, stock indices went up sharply. By 21:00, the Dow Jones index rose by 5.8%, S&P 500 – by 7.1%, NASDAQ Composite – by 8.5%with respect to the closure of the previous day. The game on the increase continued at the evening session of the Moscow Exchange. “There will be rebounds in the market, but so far they are technical, and all assets that are not protective will be sold on the growth of quotes,” summarizes Alena Nikolaeva.
