The S&P rating agency maintains France – Liberation
The verdict fell: the American rating agency S&P maintained the sovereign note of France, Friday, May 30, late in the evening. The agency has not published any comments, leaving its notation as it is. Asked by AFP, the Ministry of Economy « Take a good note » of this decision, without more detail.
February 28, S&P had matched its aa- « Negative perspective » evoking public finances « under pressure « And « A budget strategy beyond 2025 uncertain ». However, no announcement of drastic reduction in expenses has occurred since the government. But François Bayrou announced Tuesday May 27 at the BFMTV microphone that he was going to present in early July A « Pluriannual plan » recovery of public finances. It will be a plan « Out of three or four years » Who “Go ask all French people an effort. As fair as possible, but a sufficient effort for France to come out of this situation ”, added the Prime Minister, notably by evoking The track of « social VAT » already advanced by Emmanuel Macron on May 13 on TF1 : under study, an increase of at least one point of the rate of the value added tax, currently set at 20 %, which could bring more than 10 billion euros to finance Social Security by making all consumers support the effort.
But François Bayrou also admitted on Wednesday in front of the Senate, « That none of the measures » What will the government offer « Before July 14 » For its general return to balance of public finances has not yet been arrested. The government must find 40 billion euros to The 2026 budget In September by succeeding in saving money in state, social security and local communities.
The Prime Minister is still betting on consultation with social partners and political parties, to avoid new parliamentary censorship. But the unions – Sophie Binet, the secretary general of the CGT in mind – are standing against social VAT, just like the left and the RN: Marine Le Pen threatened on Friday to censor the Bayrou government If such a measure was adopted. This persistent uncertainty that hovers around the executive’s ability to reduce debt a little bit is not to reassure rating agencies.
The other two large rating agencies Moody’s And Fitch had, in April and March respectively, chose not to modify their note for France. Moody’s had already degraded the country with a notch last Decemberthe classant in AA3, the equivalent of an AA-, and Fitch had maintained her aa- note with a « Negative perspective ».
According to the revised economic projections of the European Commission, published on May 19, France will record the worst public deficit in the euro zone in 2025 and 2026, at 5.6 % and 5.7 % of GDP respectively, while the government is still counting on 5.4 % in 2025 and 4.6 % in 2026, to return within 3 % in 2029.
Monday, The Court of Auditors had also warned risk of « Liquidity crisis » of Social Security next year due to the slippage « Out of control » of his expenses.
Before the Parliament on Wednesday, the Minister of Public Accounts Amélie de Montchalin nevertheless maintained the objective of returning to the balance of Social Security in 2029.
An ambitious objective, since according to the government’s own forecasts in the 2025 Social Security budget, its deficit will still amount to 24.1 billion in 2028, the last year of available forecast.
