The « Russian Pearl Harbor » in the microscope

On the morning of Sunday, December 7, 1941, the Imperial Japanese Navy re -wrote the rules of war from the beginning.

Almost no one had imagined that the Japanese could secretly cross an entire ocean to attack a « impregnable fortress », as US generals had described Hawaii.

Japanese aircraft taking off from six aircraft carriers managed to destroy or cause damage to 328 US aircraft and 19 US Navy ships, including eight battleships.

The comparison with the attack on Pearl Harbor was made by the first Russian military bloggers. After all, the Ukrainians re -written the rules of war last Sunday.

With the unexpected attack on five Russian air bases far from the front – two of them thousands of kilometers away, in the Russian North and Siberia.

On the critical day, the trucks that carried the latter were driven, most likely by unsuspecting Russians, near the air bases and there, the ceilings of the containers were opened remotely by releasing the drones.

According to Kiev, the spider web, as it was called, hit or even destroyed a total of 41 Russian strategic bombers – capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear weapons.

It is, in any case, a great operational and psychological victory for Ukraine, and a correspondingly big blow to Vladimir Putin and the Russians.

Returning to the comparison with Pearl Harbor, Max Bout, a researcher at Council on Foreign Relations, reminds, through the Washington Post, that the attack on Pearl Harbor signaled the launch of a new war, while the attack on Russian aircraft was just another attempt by the Russian aircraft. 2022.

But just like Pearl Harbor showed that Japan would be a much more terrible enemy than most Westerners expected – he writes – Sunday’s attack shows, once again, that the Ukrainians prove to be much more durable and adaptive warriors.

In addition, both attacks could mark the depreciation of once dominant weapons systems: 1941 warships, manned aircraft today.

A flock of Ukrainian drones, probably costing tens of thousands of dollars, caused billions of damage to Russia’s most sophisticated aircraft.

Along the way, Max But notes, the Ukrainians revealed a vulnerable spot that should keep every general around the world awake.

If the Ukrainians were able to send secret drones so close to large air bases to a police state such as Russia, what prevents the Chinese from doing the same with US air bases?

Or Pakistanis with Indian Air Bases? Or the North Koreans with South Korean air bases?

Armies who thought they had secured their airlines with electrophilic fences and outposts should now calculate the threat of cheap, omnipresent drones that can be easily modified for military use.

It is obvious that mass investment will be required in unmanned aircraft.

The money spent on conventional manned weapons systems seem more and more thrown, as are the costs of the cavalry in the 1930s.

It took place on the eve of the last round of talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, and seemed to be designed to send Putin a clear message: the continuation of the war continues to pose serious risks to Moscow, even if Ukraine is no longer in place.

The Russian president has for months implied that he has no reason to agree on a truce, as his forces are close to victory in Ukraine. For his part, Donald Trump has told Volodimir Zelenski at least twice that he does not hold papers in his hands.

With Sunday’s « Jeimsbudy » attack, as well as Tuesday’s attack on the Crimea Bridge, the third by the beginning of the war, Kiev responded to both.

They say that Washington had no idea of ​​the spider web business, though it was prepared for a year and a half. On the other hand, Kiev assures that he was piloting his drones from a distance.

« This is only possible with the support of a strong satellite communication system.

The Ukrainians do not have this opportunity, so if they were able to act remotely, it was certainly thanks to the US, « Giyom Ansel, writer and former Lieutenant Colonel of the French Army, told Le Monde.

He estimates that Kiev could not carry out the operation « without the information of the US Secret Services », which he considers to be « Trump’s kick in Putin ».

It is certain that Russia now has fewer bombers for its attacks on Ukraine.

And the situation is complicated by the fact that Some of the bombers targeted, the Soviet TU-95 and TU-22M3, have ceased to be produced.

Moscow should also review its tactics, and whether it can now risk the concentration of aircraft, an approach recently adopted to launch mass blows to Russia.

As the Financial Times notes, the apparent negligence of the Russian military leadership, which left strategic aircraft at airports, has caused a wave of anger in the Russian community of Telegram military bloggers.

But even more terrible than this rage is the fear that the Kremlin must have overwhelmed, for the rest of the vulnerable inland goals that the Ukrainians could in the future be hit.

Although, though, he inevitably returned to the debate, the possibility of using regular nuclear weapons is not considered possible.

And in the absence of this, there is not much he can do and he has not already done.