The ruble is strengthened against the backdrop of geopolitics and budget sales of yuan
At the end of the week, Yuan, at the closing of exchange trading, updated the two -year minimum, stopping near the level of 11 rubles/CNY. The multi -month minimum was also updated by the OTC dollar, rolling around by the end of the day before the mark of 82.2 rubles/$. The ruble is supported by a stable geopolitical background, a high offer of currency by exporters and the Bank of Russia, as well as low demand for it from importers. At the same time, in case of progress in negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict, the dollar exchange rate may go to the range of 70–80 rubles./$.
The course of the yuan at the auction of the Moscow Exchange on April 18 closed the mark of 11.04 rubles/CNY – the minimum value from May 10, 2023. At the same time, during trading, it fell to 10.91 rubles/CNY. The strengthening of the Russian currency lasts the second week. During this time, the yuan course decreased by almost 1.7 rubles. A similar dynamics was observed at OTC trading in a dollar. According to Investing.com, the exchange rate of the American currency completed a week near the mark of 82.2 rubles./$ – at least from the end of May 2023. In a week he lost almost 1.1 rubles.
Partly, the mitigation of the geopolitical background, the periodic emergence of information about the possible softening of the sanctions regime in relation to Russia is influenced by the mitigation of the currency market. “So far, there is a chance to normalize relations with the United States and settle the Ukrainian conflict, the ruble will probably remain strong,” said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the Zenit bank’s analytical department.
However, a fundamental factor remains to strengthen the ruble – a significant flow of currency from foreign trade.
According to the Bank of Russia, in the first quarter of 2025, a positive balance of account of current operations reached $ 20 billion, which is $ 6 billion higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024. “Probably, the surplus was equally provided with an increase in export income against the background of high oil prices at the beginning of the year (in January -February, the cost of oil Brent steadily exceeded $ 75 per barrel. « Kommersant »), as well as a decrease in imports against the backdrop of a slowdown of lending in the Russian Federation and a reduction in final demand, ”said Vladimir Evstifeev. However, the consolidation of Brent oil prices this week above $ 65 per barrel, according to the managing expert of the Center for Analytics and Expertise of the PSB Denis Popov, will ensure the surplus of foreign trade against the backdrop of the weakness of imports due to the strict monetary policy of the Bank of Russia.
An additional support factor is the daily sale of Yuan as part of the budget rule. Since April 7, sales amounts to 10.5 billion rubles in the equivalent. per day, which is almost twice as high as in the previous month. “Yuan daily sales almost do not affect the course. But the accumulated effect works here, ”said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst of the Svokombank. In addition, in the coming week, the Russian currency will support the tax period in Russia, which will lead to even greater sales of currency from exporters. According to the analysts of Zenit Bank, the volume of tax payments of March (insurance premiums, VAT, personal income tax, excise taxes, company profit tax and export export duties) will amount to 3.3 trillion rubles.
Rooting the ruble will restrain the expectations that the financial authorities of Russia will begin to take steps to counteract this process, as it was last summer (See “Kommersant” dated June 22, 2024).
“Such measures can be verbal interventions about the unwillingness of the ruble strengthening, reducing the sale of currency in the framework of budget operations with the transition to replenishing the currency into reserves, a complete abolition of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings, the active release of non -residents from“ C ”accounts, weakening of restrictions on the withdrawal of capital, reducing the key rate with an apparent slowdown in inflation,” the master believes. Vasiliev. True, he waits for such measures not earlier than reaching a level of 70 rubles./$.
At the same time, as Denis Popov points out, the geopolitical news background remains the key factor in the formation of the ruble. ” According to Mikhail Vasiliev, in case of progress in negotiations on the Ukrainian conflict, the dollar exchange rate can go to the range of 70–80 rubles. However, in the absence of significant geopolitical changes in the coming weeks, the dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 79–85 rubles/$, the yuan exchange rate – 10.8–11.6 rubles/CNY.
