The Romanian sector that could be severely affected by the commercial war
The commercial and fiscal tensions between the United States and the rest of the world, especially the European Union, have begun to generate indirect effects on the Romanian economy. Although the direct trade between Romania and the USA are relatively limited, the local economy could feel the consequences of the new tariff and fiscal policies adopted by the American administration, Alex Milcev, partner, the leader of the Fiscal and Legal Assistance Department, Ey Romania shows.
Commerce Romania-US: a modest partnership, but with impact
According to the data of the National Institute of Statistics (INS), Romania’s trade with the US was modest compared to the intra-EU. In 2024, exports to the US totaled 2.11 billion euros, and imports 1.2 billion euros, generating a commercial surplus of over 900 million euros. The US is the second non-EU commercial partner in Romania, after the United Kingdom, but only the 12th commercial partner overall.
However, being part of the European Union, Romania is indirectly affected by the tensions between the US and the community block. Any commercial barriers or rates imposed by the US could affect the costs of imported goods from the EU, influencing both inflation and the pace of economic growth.
Beps 2.0 and additional taxation risk for Romanian services
One of the most sensitive conflict points between the US and the EU is related to the Beps 2.0 Directive, an international agreement that provides for a 15% global minimum tax. Although initially supported by the US, Washington later withdrew from this agreement, invoking possible disadvantages for American companies.
A possible respondent from the US could include the aggressive taxation of the revenues obtained by the European companies from services provided for American customers. In the case of Romania, the IT sector, which has a significant volume of contracts with US companies, could be severely affected. Currently, these revenues are largely exempt from taxes, but if the US decides to impose a tax of up to 30%, the competitiveness of the Romanian companies could be seriously compromised. This scenario could lead to a reduction in investments and even to the relocation of some operations in Romania to other more favorable fiscal markets.
Romania, between uncertainties and the need for a plan B
Although the direct impact of commercial measures between the US and the EU on Romania is relatively low, the indirect effects can become significant. Increasing prices for imported goods from the EU, possible decrease in demand for Romanian services on the American market and a possible reduction in foreign investments are risks that cannot be ignored.
In this context, both the authorities and the business environment in Romania must carefully pursue the developments and prepare viable alternatives to reduce the potentially negative impact. If the tax and tariff tensions continue to escalate, Romania’s economic and commercial strategies are required to maintain long -term stability and competitiveness.
