« The reality we face today »

Defense should be prioritized by the Government of Iceland in the changed world that is now facing the opinion of Arnór Sigurjónsson, a specialist in defense, which includes that Icelanders need to protect much more to the issue than is currently done.

« We are so small and we are so poor. Both are a myth in this context, ”says Arnór in a conversation with mbl.is.

At the time, the state of the NATO Alliance set a goal that they would defend at least 2% of defense GDP by the end of last year, reaching 23 of the 32 Alliance Member States, but in addition, Iceland has been excluded from the goal due to military and small size.

Would be a minimum of 115 billion

However, there is now a debate among the Allies that this goal needs to be increased to over 3% or even 5% over the next five to ten years.

It should therefore be assumed that NATO member states will have to spend a minimum of 2.5% of its GDP on defense.

Iceland's GDP was ISK 4,616 billion in 2024, if 2.5% of that amount in defense, it amounts to about ISK 115 billion, the amount that would have to come somewhere.

Which matters more?

Asked if other aspects of society, such as welfare, would pay for such defense spending, Arnór says it is necessary to prioritize otherwise.

Among other things, Arnór proposes to look into the matter in connection with resource fees and government optimization. He is not convinced that all government agencies are necessary.

Arnor also cites the United Kingdom as an example, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced that British spending would be raised from 2.3% of GDP to 2.5% by 2027, which will be financed by temporarily reducing British development aid.

« There is one way we could go. Is it more important to build a school in Mali or to defend the sovereignty and independence of the nation?  » Asks Arnor.

« These are these questions that we need to ask and answer. I know that there are all kinds of ideas that this is impossible and we have an obligation to stand with the poor nations in the world – and that's right – but we need to think about ourselves first and foremost. « 

Iceland is not as small as poverty as claimed

« The myth that Iceland is too poverty to participate in its own defense is simply wrong, » says Arnór.

In the book Icelandic army – a changed world, a new realitywhich Arnór published in 2022, he used figures from the same year on Iceland's GDP, more specifically GDP per capita.

« There we were measured in a similar role to the Nordic countries – except for Norway, which was slightly higher – but we were higher than the French. Our gross GDP per capita in 2022 was about $ 52,000, ”he says, while $ 52,000 corresponds to just over ISK 7 million.

The French have had $ 48,000 in gross GDP per capita and Iceland has been on a similar role as the Dutch and the Germans. He also says the Baltic States have had $ 25 to $ 30,000, a considerably smaller amount than Iceland, but there are still about 3% of GDP protected in defense.

Arnór Sigurjónsson, then secretary general of the Security and Defense Office of the Foreign Ministry, welcomes Bob Work, then US Deputy Secretary of Defense, upon arriving in Iceland in September 2015.

Population growth and increase in GDP

The other myth, in Arnor's opinion, is that Iceland is too small.

« The rule of thumb is that you can take 10% of the population of one nation for military or military in danger or war times, without putting the economy on the side, » says Arnór.

« It is for us Icelanders, if we are 386,000, about 38,000 people. It can be done with 38,000 people, ”says Arnór.

Even if only a fraction of that number, maybe 5 or 8,000 people, says Arnór says the considerable force that would « be able to stand up in any attacker. »

Now that Icelanders have increased even more, and has become about 400,000, the rule of thumb is 40 thousand people. In addition, GDP has increased since 2022.

« So both of these myths are small and poor are wrong. »

Expertise, ability, equipment and training

What matters, according to Arnor, which he says, the Icelandic government does not want to face, is that it is not possible to outsource the nation's defense and security to other parties.

« Especially not in light of the world's circumstances, and a new US president with a new foreign policy, which literally rejects Europe. You just see how he is going with Ukraine, ”says Arnor, adding that Russia did not have to give up his single claim against Ukraine, at the same time as they received many gifts from Trump on the eve of peace talks.

For example, it is now clear that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO.

He also says a normal political relationship between the United States and Russia, the intention is to exchange ambassadors again and Trump wants to get Putin into the G7 partnership, and will probably lift business constraints.

« This is the reality we face today, and it is a real requirement that Iceland and Iceland have expertise, ability, equipment and training to participate in the defense of the country. »

Absolutely minimum

The third myth says Arnor is when people ask, « What should an Icelandic army can do? Does he have something in a potential attacker? The answer to that is absolute yes, it can be done with 5,000 people. « 

In his book, he himself proposed a 1,000 -person army with a 500 -person reserve.

« It's a very low, but I also stated that this figure can be added. As soon as you have a core, you can increase the core, you can train more people and buy more equipment. «