The rates of the provision of gondola cars for the transportation of coal in March decreased by 7-15%
The rates for the provision of gondola cars for coal in March fell by 7-15% due to the ongoing deterioration of the conjuncture in world markets. Analysts predict that in April the decline in bets will continue and they will fall below the payback level of the gondola car, which nevertheless will not lead the export of coal to the zone of profitability. Next year, the behavior of bets will depend on a number of factors: on global demand and coal prices to the indicators of loading and the operational situation on the network of Russian Railways.
The rates for the provision of gondola cars for coal transportation in March decreased by 7-15% by the prices of February, the reduction was up to 25% for the transportation of construction goods, the study of the Center for price indices (CCI) said. The greatest decrease in coal transportation is up to 110 thousand rubles. For typical and 130 thousand rubles. For an innovative half -wagon, it is noted on the Kuzbass route – the ports of the Baltic, “where the highest profitability of the operation was previously recorded during the provision of gondola cars,” state in the CCI. At the same time, analysts indicate, depending on the volume of the goods presented, operators are ready to additionally reduce rates to 10%.
The CCI expects that in April, the rates for the provision of rolling stock for carboning of coal will decrease by another 10%. As the Senior Analyst of the CCI, Roman Shagalov, predicts, the fee for a typical midwife on the route from Kuzbass to the find will fall to 135 thousand rubles, to Ust-Luga-up to 100 thousand rubles. In this case, the profitability of the midwife will be no more than 2 thousand rubles. For a wagon per day, he says, which means that it will become almost impossible to recoup a cargo car. “However, even with such low rates on wagons, export netbooks of Kuzbass energy coal in any direction will not exceed the cost of production,” emphasizes Mr. Shagalov, “that is, exporters will continue to work with negative profitability.”
Following the sea terminals and operators of the balcony, wagon companies have become another participants in the coal transportation chain that reduce the cost of their services against the backdrop of adverse conjuncture in the coal market, says Roman Shagalov. As Kommersant reported, since March, the Oteko Terminal in Taman introduced a discount of 10% to the tariff for the transshipment, in other pools the terminals also significantly lowered prices (see “Kommersant” from February 17 And March 17). Then operators were very reduced by the provision of the provision of wagons. “Logistics is forced to get cheaper due to the reduction of exports and exporting income against the background of the continuing fall of carbon quotes and strengthen the ruble exchange rate,” Mr. Shagalov notes. At the same time, the CCI study, “proposals for the return of preferential coefficients to railway tariffs in the export of coal through the ports of the south and north-west remain without support”.
In the information center of operators (Izo) confirm the fall in the betting rates for gondola cars for carboning of coal in March by 15%. “The rates on the gondola cars for the transportation of crushed stone began to decline sharply two months ago, we do not fix the acceleration of the fall in March,” they say there. The dynamics is associated with the ongoing reduction in demand against the background of low consignment, they note in Izo. “Last year, the decrease in loading was compensated by a high turn, and the rates remained stable,” they emphasize in the center. “This year, despite the high turnover, the reduction of the cargo base becomes the main factor affecting the rates.”
“Reducing the cost of providing car cars is a reaction of the operator community, a decrease in coal quotes in international markets and strengthening the national currency, which also leads to a decrease in export revenue,” says Kommersant’s source in a large half -wagons operator. He does not confirm the reduction in bets on the transportation of construction goods. “Brushing rates are steadily reduced by the end of the season when negative temperatures appear and freeze for the winter,” explains the interlocutor “Kommersant”. “Benes on construction goods and the volume of transportation begin to grow with the beginning of the season, which is expected in April -May.”
Further dynamics of wagons bets will be determined by a whole range of factors: from demand and charges in world markets to loading indicators and operational situation on the network of Russian Railways, Roman Shagalov notes. “At the same time, forecasts for the next year remain uncertain due to a possible change in the tariff policy of Russian Railways,” he says. This refers to the announced transition to a new price list since 2026, in which the fee for the transportation of coal, now subsidized by cargoes of higher tariff classes, can grow. According to the Institute of Economics and Transport Development, losses of Russian Railways from coal transportation at the eastern training ground, where its share in loading for export reached 73%, in 2014–2024 amounted to 428.3 billion rubles.
