The profitability of OFZ grows against the background of the weakening of the ruble
The instability in the financial market, as well as the tough statements of the head of the Central Bank in relation to the DCT, led to an increase in betting on the government bonds. The yield of three -month OFZ rapidly overcame the level of 21%, and more long papers are kept near 16% per annum. Market participants do not exclude the growth of bets in the event of a further escalation of a trade confrontation in the world, which will lead to a drop in raw materials and weakening of the ruble. Given the action of this income factor, the Bank of Russia can further delay the softening of monetary policy.
The profitability of the shortest release of OFZ, with repayment in July 2025, at the exchange auction on April 8 reached the mark of 21.3% per annum, which is almost 0.5 percentage points above Monday closure. According to the results of the day, the paper stopped at the mark of 21.11% per annum, the maximum value for the day of the day from December 19, 2024, that is, until the moment the Central Bank made a decision For the first time leave the key rate at 21%.
The profitability of shorter issues predominantly decreased, playing out part of the rise that occurred a day earlier. According to the results of the day, the rates of medium -term papers fell by 0.16–0.4 of the base point (b. P.), Up to 16.4–17.08% per annum, and long -term – at 16–28 b. n., up to 15.6–16.2% per annum. However, even taking into account this correction, profitability remains 17–62 b. n. above the values of the end of March. “A decrease in the prices of the state unit occurs against the background of preserving the rather high activity of investors – daily volumes of transactions amount to 20–21 billion rubles,” said Alexander Ermak, chief analyst of long -term markets for BC “Region”.
A confident decrease in prices in the debt market began after the March meeting of the Bank of Russia, at which the regulator once again Saved a bet at the level of 21%.
Although the decision coincided with the forecasts of most market participants, they were disappointed with the rhetoric of the regulator, which was not soft enough.
As a result, investors began to lay in quotes a longer hold of a key rate at a record level. These fears were confirmed on Tuesday and the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina at a meeting with the Communist Party faction in the State Duma. She She saidthat the high key rate “will be long”, however, the Central Bank expects that this period “will not be endless”.
Added nervousness to the behavior of investors in the debt market the lack of progress in negotiations of the United States and Russia, as well as the introduction of new ones in April Donald Trump Tariffs for goods From 185 countries. Although the introduced duties do not affect Russia, they lead to a drop in prices for raw materials, which has a negative impact on the attractiveness of ruble assets.
“The new duties of the United States are a significant negative factor for world trade, global economic growth and consumption of raw materials, including Russian oil, gas, metals. Over the same, the lower the amount of the currency from export, the weaker the ruble and the higher the inflation, and therefore the key rate and the profitability of the OFZ, ”said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at the Socialist Republic of Commerbank.
In the coming days, the dynamics of bets will be determined to a greater extent the situation with duties, including the response of the US trading partners to new tariffs.
When promoting the tariff war and falling prices for exchange products, further weakening of the ruble is not excluded. “In the case of a sharp increase in the dollar, we can see the impact on inflation in Russia in the case of a sharp increase in the dollar in a couple of weeks, just at the supporting meeting at the rate of the forecast on April 25,” said Alexander Ivanov, an analyst in the macroeconomics of the Ingosstrakh-investment Criminal Code.
Analysts of the Socialist Republic in the basic scenario expect to stabilize the profitability of the OFZ near the current levels. “The Bank of Russia at the next meeting will again maintain a 21% rate and soften the signal to neutral or moderately soft,” says Mr. Vasiliev. The portfolio manager of the Alfa Capital Criminal Code Evgeny Zornist does not exclude prices for prices if the countries participating in retail disputes instead of a simultaneous increase in tariffs will go to the negotiation process.
