The problem is not Ukraine but Europe

On March 27, Professor John J. Mearsheimer and the Russian strateg were television guests Alarabiyato discuss the war in Ukraine and Russian-American relations.

« Donald Trump is definitely unpredictable, but I think this is a historical moment. It is clear that Trump has totally abandoned Joe Biden’s policy on Ukraine and Russia and has adopted an opposite policy. He wants to significantly improve the relations between the US and Russia, he wants a proximity and this is exactly the opposite of Biden’s policy.

Trump understands that the US, West and Ukraine have lost the Ukraine war and it is time to reach an agreement, because Americans can no longer save the situation. It is hard to say what Russia’s victory will look like, but I think Trump and his counselors understand that Russia will win and it is better to reach an agreement now. I am sure that this policy enjoys the Russians, but it saddens the Europeans and many Americans.

Karaganov: I am not as happy as John Mearsheimer thinks, because an agreement would stop us from getting a total victory over Europe and Ukraine. The war is between us and the west, on the territory of Ukraine, a country that has been used as cannon.

Donald Trump’s return can be a turning point, indeed, but Donald Trump is facing a very strong opposition among the US elites and will have to survive politically and physically. But, indeed, he wants to do America Great Again, and for this he has to withdraw from a war that America loses.

Trump is facing a very strong opposition among US elites and will have to survive politically and physically

Mearsheimer: Donald Trump says he wants to force an agreement between Ukraine and Russia, but has zero influence on Russia. I do not think that Trump can impose an agreement, I think he can negotiate an agreement with Russia for the cessation of the war, but only if the Europeans and Ukrainians agree. An agreement between Russia and the US is the first step and is the easiest step. It will be harder for Europeans and Ukrainians to agree to this agreement. For a sustainable peace, all parties need to agree.

Mearsheimer: I think Russia and the US can be « close rivals ». My vision is that all the great powers are rival. The question is how big the rivalry is. Now, the US are much more concerned about China than Russia and have every interest in treating Russia as a closer rival. But there are two impediments. The first is the huge Russophobia in the West, which cannot be easily overcome. The second impediment is that Russia cannot trust the US after everything that happened after the Cold War; The US was aggressive towards Russia, without honesty about NATO’s expansion. I can’t accuse Putin for lack of confidence in the west. It is incorrect political to say this in the West, but Putin is right. So, there is a lot of distrust of the Russian side and a lot of Russophobia on the Western side. This means that it takes a long time to reach a reduced rivalry.

I can’t accuse Putin for lack of confidence in the west. It is incorrect political to say this in the West, but Putin is right.

Mearsheimer: During the unipolar period, after the Cold War, the US could carry a liberal foreign policy, trying to spare the liberal values ​​on the mouths of other countries. The US has become a crusader state trying to spread liberalism worldwide. It did not work, and the Americans produced a large number of disasters. And then the policy of high power came back, when Putin revitalized Russia and when China became a great power. When high power policy comes back, liberal values ​​count less. I think the liberal aspects of American foreign policy have been very affected.

How should Russia’s victory look like?

Karaganov: Russia must destroy the moral spine of Europe, which leads the world to a new World War in more than a hundred years. Europeans are desperate, they are crazy and I think they are the real threat. We do not want to occupy the whole of Ukraine, God forbid. Ukraine was a great burden in the Soviet period in terms of subsidies. We don’t want to repeat that. But I believe that Russia must meet with Russian provinces and have a demilitarized region, a buffer area that remained in Ukraine.

Russia must destroy the moral spine of Europe, which leads the world to a new World War in more than a hundred years.

But the problem is not Ukraine, but Europe, where the elites are desperate, have lost everything they were pursuing and now they are going to a great war. It is incredible what is happening in Europe. It is worse than before the outbreak of the two world wars. Anti-Russian hysteria is larger now than it was in Nazi Germany.

Am I the US about to end the NATO alliance?

Mearsheimer: First of all, I do not think it is fair to talk about Europe as a single country. Europe is made up of a lot of countries, and one of the main reasons why European elites have managed to agree in recent decades and maintain peace between these countries was the presence of the American Pacifier in the form of NATO. Trump despises Europeans, believes that NATO is useless and wants to drastically reduce the American military presence in Europe. The presence of the US will decrease, and Trump will care to Europe to lead Europe. What will happen? Europeans will begin to argue, because they have different interests and there is no American factor to ask them to solve problems in common.

Europeans will begin to argue, because they have different interests and there is no American factor to ask them to solve problems in common

I believe that European countries will not be a problem for Russia, because these countries will not be able to coordinate to pose problems. The US withdrawal will not lead to better coordination of European countries, on the contrary. In addition, I do not think that Russia is really a threat, and many European citizens also understand this. Therefore, there is no great external threat that will unite the Europeans and cancel the centrifugal forces. If the US withdraws, and Russia is not a great threat, then Europeans will fight.

NATO is in a difficult time and, whether it will disappear or not, will not be the alliance so far.

Even if the Ukraine war is over, other sources of conflict in Eastern Europe and the relationship between Europe and Russia will be poisoned.

Is Russia a threat to Europe?

Karaganov: Excuse me, Russia does not need a storage of old age. Recently, one of the EU officials said that Europe is a garden surrounded by a jungle. I was one of Russia’s experts in European matters and I spent a lot of time in Europe; I can say that Europe is not a garden, but a jungle whose vegetation grows on the soil fed by the millions of people whom Europeans have killed and robbed in the last half millennium. The US withdraws from Europe, and Europe will no longer be able to do what it has done in the last 500 years.

If the US will withdraw from Europe, those who are not totally crazy people will understand that they cannot rely on American nuclear guarantees

Europe has come to suffer from a form of « strategic idiocy » – they are no longer afraid of nuclear discouragement. This is why I tried to convince the Russian government to strengthen this nuclear discouragement. Our future American partners have understood that. Europeans are not whole in mind and have not understood. I hope, in the coming months, they will understand that they look into an abyss and try to extend the war by sending other Ukrainians to die, and then they want to send the East European to fight. European elites need this war to cover their mistakes and failures. I think that if the US will withdraw from Europe, those who are not totally crazy will understand that they cannot rely on American nuclear guarantees. These guarantees are very weak: I am a history of nuclear strategies and know that, since the 1950s, the US does not want to use nuclear weapons to defend Europe. And Russia does not want to attack Europe. Why would we need this Peninsula of Eurasia, where are we the largest and richest country? Talking about an invasion of Russia in Europe is not just hilarious, it is quite disgusting.

Is it a sign of weakness of America that Washington does not want to be the global leader anymore?

Mearsheimer: What does it mean to be a global leader? It is one of the most amorphous terms that Westerners use to encourage US interference in the politics of all states and not necessary. I am not interested in America to be such a leader. I want America to have a smart foreign policy to maximize US security. To start a war with Russia in Ukraine, a war that killed a huge number of Ukrainians and Russians and led to NATO shipwreck. We need another foreign policy and Trump does the right thing. We must have good relationships with Russia and put an end to the war. If that means being a global leader, then I agree.

What can Russia offer the US to remove Moscow from Beijing?

Mearsheimer: US can provide Russia with better bilateral relationships. And we can force the Europeans to have good relationships with the Russians. We can end the war in Ukraine. We can resume economic relations. We may not be able to reach the level before 2022, but we can go in that direction. This way we can create a short distance between Russia and China. But I think the problem is reliable, because the Russians no longer trust America, they will not abandon the relationship with China and so the US does not have levers to attract the Russians.

The goal is to eliminate Ukraine as a spearhead of the West. Let’s eliminate it as a threat, not as a state. The second goal is for Russia to undermine its neighbors who have turned into Russia’s enemies

What is Russia’s goal in Ukraine?

Karaganov: The goal is to eliminate Ukraine as a spearhead of the West. Let’s eliminate it as a threat, not as a state. The second goal is for Russia to undermine its neighbors who have turned into Russia’s enemies. We must destroy the spine of this Europe. We are no longer interested in Europe, Russia’s European trip has ended, it lasted too long, 130 years older than needed. Now we say goodbye to Europe. Naturally, from a cultural point of view, Russia is partially European and lasts a lot, as Dostoevsky said, at the « sacred stones of Europe ».

Russia does not want to occupy the whole of Ukraine. We only want purely Russian regions. They are the regions of the east and southern Ukraine, which produce 70% of Ukraine’s GDP, because the most trained people live here and the USSR and the Tsarist Empire have invested the most.

The four Ukrainian regions and Crimea are the minimal goal. Then, it should be a totally very wide demilitarized area, controlled by the Chinese, by the Arabs, by others, it does not matter. Another objective could be the recovery of all the provinces of the Black Sea that were part of Russia from a cultural, political, but also economical. However, under the current conditions, it is better to have a demilitarized area and the four provinces, plus Crimea. The best solution remains what is to the east of the Dnieper and the southern Ukraine. But it can be expensive, both in terms of sacrifices on the front and in terms of reconstruction.

I don’t think the war will end soon, and that can put the Russians in a position to conquer Odessa or Kharkov during 2025

Mearsheimer: If the war could be stopped now, the annexation of the four provinces and Crimea would be recognized. But I do not think the war will end soon, and this can put the Russians in the position to conquer Odessa or Kharkov during 2025. I think Russia has serious strategic reasons to occupy these territories. If they occupy them, they will want to keep them. Therefore, if I were in the place of Ukraine or Europeans, I would do everything for the war to end quickly. The four regions and Crimea are lost and what can be done is to be kept Odessa and Kharkov. The cost of occupying these new territories can be very high in human lives, but if the Ukrainian army begins to collapse and this price will no longer be so high, the desire of the Russians to go further will increase.